Tucker S. McElroy - Böcker

Time Series: A First Course with Bootstrap Starter provides an introductory course on time series analysis that satisfies the triptych of (i) mathematical completeness, (ii) computational illustration and implementation, and (iii) conciseness and accessibility to upper-level undergraduate and M.S. students. Basic theoretical results are presented in a mathematically convincing way, and the methods of data analysis are developed through examples and exercises parsed in R. A student with a basic course in mathematical statistics will learn both how to analyze time series and how to interpret the results.The book provides the foundation of time series methods, including linear filters and a geometric approach to prediction. The important paradigm of ARMA models is studied in-depth, as well as frequency domain methods. Entropy and other information theoretic notions are introduced, with applications to time series modeling. The second half of the book focuses on statistical inference, the fitting of time series models, as well as computational facets of forecasting. Many time series of interest are nonlinear in which case classical inference methods can fail, but bootstrap methods may come to the rescue. Distinctive features of the book are the emphasis on geometric notions and the frequency domain, the discussion of entropy maximization, and a thorough treatment of recent computer-intensive methods for time series such as subsampling and the bootstrap. There are more than 600 exercises, half of which involve R coding and/or data analysis. Supplements include a website with 12 key data sets and all R code for the book's examples, as well as the solutions to exercises.

Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies.For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic modelsSection II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimationSection III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustmentsSection IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustmentSection V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous workSection VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time seriesSection VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time seriesBy presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.