Cambridge Elements in International Economics – serie

Virtual economic transactions have radically transformed the way we think about trade and markets in closed and open economies. Continuous decline in costs of information and communications and setting up of phenomenally large number of virtual platforms have brought in 'Time' as an essential element in the discourse on international trade. This work delves deep into the issue of how Time enters as a major catalyst of international trade and virtual transactions. This changes the way we look at ideas of comparative advantage, factor mobility, growth, income distribution, and allied concepts. A key result is that greater physical distance might encourage trade contrary to what we are accustomed to accept.

Given the increasing sensitivity of buyers in the richer countries towards quality of goods they consume, low-quality exports largely constrain export-growth of the developing countries. This Element documents the attempts to estimate cross-country quality variations and reviews the demand side and supply side explanations for the low-quality phenomenon. It examines how trade policies can incentivize export-quality upgrading, and discusses the underlying channels through which a reverse causality from export-quality upon within-country income or wage inequality may develop.

The lion's share of smartphones, computers, televisions, semiconductor devices, and other electronics goods is made in East Asia. Final electronics goods are assembled in China, and sophisticated parts and components (P&C) such as semiconductor chips, image sensors, and ceramic filters in upstream Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. How did Asia become the center of electronics manufacturing? How did learning take place that allowed Asian workers to produce cutting-edge products? Are there lessons for countries like the US that seek to reshore manufacturing of semiconductors, flat-panel displays, and related products? This Element addresses these issues.

This study presents the facts, arguments and scenarios around public debt from a global perspective. Especially the largest economies feature record debt and fiscal risks, including from population ageing and financial imbalances. Given low interest rates, there is no imminent problem. But at some point, debt will have to come down. There are four possible scenarios how debt could come down. First, governments could economise and reform. Second, governments could default. Third, governments could erode the real value of debt via inflation and negative real interest rates. However, this scenario cannot continue forever. Policy errors can prompt a loss of confidence, destabilisation and crisis. This fourth scenario last included the largest economies in the 1970s. It would become a major global challenge if it were to happen again in today's interconnected world.

This Element discusses the global role of the RMB. After recapitulating its economic and trade growth experiences, we recount China's evolving exchange rate policy in the post-reform era, review the debate over whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued, present China's policies to globalize the RMB, describe offshore RMB trading, assess the current global status of the RMB, and discuss geopolitical tensions in the last few years. Since 2009, the process of globalizing RMB has not been smooth sailing and progressed quite unevenly over time. Despite the strong performance in the early 2010s, the RMB is under-represented in the global market and its global role does not match China's economic might. The path of RMB internationalization is affected by both China's economic performance and geopolitical factors.

This Element presents the main characteristics of international trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by analyzing whether its trade policy managed to build or break bridges among MENA countries and with the rest of the world. Its objective is threefold. First, it provides an overview of trade theories from the MENA region perspective. Second, it analyzes the main trends and features of trade flows and trade policies. Third, it shows how trade policies had different development outcomes related to gender, informal employment, and the composition of labor demand. The main findings show that trade policies and domestic characteristics explain the relatively poor performance of trade flows in most of the diversified MENA economies. Also, the MENA region is highly affected by world business cycles given that this region is the largest exporter of oil. Finally, development outcomes still need to be streamlined within trade policies.

This Element presents the main characteristics of international trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by analyzing whether its trade policy managed to build or break bridges among MENA countries and with the rest of the world. Its objective is threefold. First, it provides an overview of trade theories from the MENA region perspective. Second, it analyzes the main trends and features of trade flows and trade policies. Third, it shows how trade policies had different development outcomes related to gender, informal employment, and the composition of labor demand. The main findings show that trade policies and domestic characteristics explain the relatively poor performance of trade flows in most of the diversified MENA economies. Also, the MENA region is highly affected by world business cycles given that this region is the largest exporter of oil. Finally, development outcomes still need to be streamlined within trade policies.

International investments yield returns in the forms of multinational profits, dividends and interest on equity and debt, and the charges on bank loans. These payments are recorded in the current account of the balance of payments and constitute a significant component of many countries' current accounts. Foreign direct investment- (FDI)-generated income is often channeled by firms through countries with low tax rates and regulations. Emerging markets regularly have large FDI income deficits, but a substantial portion of these payments are reinvested. Portfolio securities provide income from diversified securities and lower risk. Global banking offers financing from foreign sources, which may support stability during periods of domestic crises.

International investments yield returns in the forms of multinational profits, dividends and interest on equity and debt, and the charges on bank loans. These payments are recorded in the current account of the balance of payments and constitute a significant component of many countries' current accounts. Foreign direct investment- (FDI)-generated income is often channeled by firms through countries with low tax rates and regulations. Emerging markets regularly have large FDI income deficits, but a substantial portion of these payments are reinvested. Portfolio securities provide income from diversified securities and lower risk. Global banking offers financing from foreign sources, which may support stability during periods of domestic crises.

Efficient market theory has made an important contribution to economic and financial analysis, but markets do not always behave according to the theory's predictions. The behavioral finance approach advocated in this Element is a complement to efficient market theory. The Element stresses the effects of perverse incentives, complexity, and uncertainty, as well as the roles of mental models or narrative and behavioral biases. It emphasizes limits to arbitrage, suggesting that international capital mobility is often far from perfect. It reviews popular models and considers alternatives in areas such as currency crises, exchange rates and the balance of payments, the international monetary trilemma, capital flow surges and sudden stops, and the discipline effects of international financial markets. The behavioral approach of the Element also helps to explain why governments often fail to undertake necessary policy adjustments in time to head off currency and financial crises.

Efficient market theory has made an important contribution to economic and financial analysis, but markets do not always behave according to the theory's predictions. The behavioral finance approach advocated in this Element is a complement to efficient market theory. The Element stresses the effects of perverse incentives, complexity, and uncertainty, as well as the roles of mental models or narrative and behavioral biases. It emphasizes limits to arbitrage, suggesting that international capital mobility is often far from perfect. It reviews popular models and considers alternatives in areas such as currency crises, exchange rates and the balance of payments, the international monetary trilemma, capital flow surges and sudden stops, and the discipline effects of international financial markets. The behavioral approach of the Element also helps to explain why governments often fail to undertake necessary policy adjustments in time to head off currency and financial crises.

In March 1989, US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady introduced a plan enabling distressed sovereigns to restructure unsustainable debts through 'Brady bonds.' Today, growing debt vulnerabilities have prompted calls for a modern Brady Plan to facilitate sovereign debt restructurings. This Element examines the macroeconomic impact of the original Brady Plan by comparing outcomes for ten Brady countries against forty other emerging markets and developing economies. It finds that following the first Brady-led restructuring in 1990, participating countries saw reductions in public and external debt burdens, alongside output and productivity growth anchored by strong economic reforms. The analysis reveals the existence of a 'Brady multiplier,' where declines in overall debt burdens exceeded initial face-value reductions. While similar mechanisms could again deliver substantial debt stock reductions during acute solvency crises, Brady-style solutions alone would not address current challenges related to creditor coordination, domestic reform barriers, and the rise of domestic debt, among others.