Research and evaluation in the human services usually involves a relatively large number of variables. We are interested in phenomena that have many aspects and many causes. The techniques needed to deal with many variables go beyond those of introductory statistics. Elementary procedures in statistics are limited in usefulness to situations in which we have two or three variables. When we have more than that, application of elementary techniques will often yield mis­ leading results. Why are elementary techniques inadequate when applied to many variables? Why, for example, should we not simply interpret a series of correlations of independent and dependent variables? The answer lies in the fact that these correlations are not independent pieces of information. The correlations of vari­ ables x and z with yare affected by the association of x with z. Hence, talk about the "effect" of x on y will be somewhat ambiguous, since we will be in­ cluding in that effect some of the effects of z. We would like to be able to sort out these effects. This is the problem of "estimation," that is, estimating the relationships or effects between variables, taking into account their relationships with other variables.

All countries confront the problem of providing for dependent, neglected, and 1 abused children. While the exact form of institutional response will differ in relation to a country's political and economic structure, its culture and its tradition, the same general kinds of child welfare services have been developed 2 everywhere. Literature from the United States, Canada, and several Western European countries reflects a shared concern about children who reside in unplanned, substitute care arrangements and a growing recognition of the importance of 3 making permanent plans for these children. The American response to this problem took shape in the early 1970s when government at the local, state, and 4 federal levels undertook to fund permanency planning projects. Permanency planning projects were charged with developing and testing procedures that would increase the likelihood that children would move out of substitute care arrangements into permanent family homes either through restoration to their biological families, termination of parental rights and subsequent adoption, court appointment of a legal guardian, or planned emancipation for older children. Long-term foster care, if it was a planned outcome supported by the use of written agreements between foster parents and child care agencies, was recognized as an appropriate option for some children. 2 DECISION MAKING IN CHILD WELFARE Permanency planning projects have had a direct effect on the substantive aspects of social work practice in child welfare.

In the United States and other western nations, debates rage over whether welfare, medical care, educational programs, and many other aspects of public policy should be the responsibility of central govern­ ment, local government, or the private sector. In most nations, the issues of regional autonomy and decentralization are constantly in the news, with intensity varying from mild debate to open warfare. Less visibly, battles are continuously fought in the political arena over what groups should have the right to make decisions concerning the allocation of soci­ ety's resources. In response to these concerns, social scientists have focused consider­ able attention on the causes and consequences of centralization and de­ centralization in political, economic, and social organizations. Their analyses of centralization have been varied, ranging from systems that are quite small (e. g. , the family, the firm, and the community) to those sys­ tems that are very large (e . g. , the welfare state). While centralization is a concept of major concern in most of the social science disciplines, each discipline has tended to focus on centralization with a different set of interests. Economists have been very much concerned with the causes and the consequences of the concentration of economic resources. Polit­ ical scientists have long sought to understand the origins and conse­ quences of dictatorship and democracy. Sociologists have focused on inequalities in the distribution of power.

Research and evaluation in the human services usually involves a relatively large number of variables. We are interested in phenomena that have many aspects and many causes. The techniques needed to deal with many variables go beyond those of introductory statistics. Elementary procedures in statistics are limited in usefulness to situations in which we have two or three variables. When we have more than that, application of elementary techniques will often yield mis­ leading results. Why are elementary techniques inadequate when applied to many variables? Why, for example, should we not simply interpret a series of correlations of independent and dependent variables? The answer lies in the fact that these correlations are not independent pieces of information. The correlations of vari­ ables x and z with yare affected by the association of x with z. Hence, talk about the "effect" of x on y will be somewhat ambiguous, since we will be in­ cluding in that effect some of the effects of z. We would like to be able to sort out these effects. This is the problem of "estimation," that is, estimating the relationships or effects between variables, taking into account their relationships with other variables.

This book deals with ways of helping families cope with the difficulty of rais­ ing adolescents. Professional social workers - along with other human ser­ vice professionals - encounter these families in numerous settings: child welfare and family service agencies, hospitals, schools, community mental health clinics, residential treatment centers, juvenile halls and detention centers, recreational and vocational training organizations, and many others. While families from all walks of life may be found in these settings, families who have suffered the additional stresses of poverty, discrimination, and the consequences of physical and mental illness are commonly overrepresented. Even under the best of circumstances, the adolescent years often put the strongest family structures to the test - sometimes to the breaking point. A recent national study of over one thousand average, middle-income, two­ parent families reviewed the strengths, stresses, and satisfactions of the family life cycle (Olson and McCubbin 1983). As many would expect, families with adolescents were found to experience more stress and lower levels of family adaptability, cohesion, and marital and family satisfaction than any other developmental stage. The families with adolescents who fared best were those with such marital resources as good communication and conflict resolution skills, satisfying sexual relations, and good parent-adolescent communication.

All countries confront the problem of providing for dependent, neglected, and 1 abused children. While the exact form of institutional response will differ in relation to a country's political and economic structure, its culture and its tradition, the same general kinds of child welfare services have been developed 2 everywhere. Literature from the United States, Canada, and several Western European countries reflects a shared concern about children who reside in unplanned, substitute care arrangements and a growing recognition of the importance of 3 making permanent plans for these children. The American response to this problem took shape in the early 1970s when government at the local, state, and 4 federal levels undertook to fund permanency planning projects. Permanency planning projects were charged with developing and testing procedures that would increase the likelihood that children would move out of substitute care arrangements into permanent family homes either through restoration to their biological families, termination of parental rights and subsequent adoption, court appointment of a legal guardian, or planned emancipation for older children. Long-term foster care, if it was a planned outcome supported by the use of written agreements between foster parents and child care agencies, was recognized as an appropriate option for some children. 2 DECISION MAKING IN CHILD WELFARE Permanency planning projects have had a direct effect on the substantive aspects of social work practice in child welfare.

In the United States and other western nations, debates rage over whether welfare, medical care, educational programs, and many other aspects of public policy should be the responsibility of central govern­ ment, local government, or the private sector. In most nations, the issues of regional autonomy and decentralization are constantly in the news, with intensity varying from mild debate to open warfare. Less visibly, battles are continuously fought in the political arena over what groups should have the right to make decisions concerning the allocation of soci­ ety's resources. In response to these concerns, social scientists have focused consider­ able attention on the causes and consequences of centralization and de­ centralization in political, economic, and social organizations. Their analyses of centralization have been varied, ranging from systems that are quite small (e. g. , the family, the firm, and the community) to those sys­ tems that are very large (e . g. , the welfare state). While centralization is a concept of major concern in most of the social science disciplines, each discipline has tended to focus on centralization with a different set of interests. Economists have been very much concerned with the causes and the consequences of the concentration of economic resources. Polit­ ical scientists have long sought to understand the origins and conse­ quences of dictatorship and democracy. Sociologists have focused on inequalities in the distribution of power.

This book contains the papers given at a workshop organised by the Home Office (England and Wales) on the subject of residential burglary. This is a topic of much public concern, and I welcome the Home Office initiative in mounting the workshop. The contributors were all researchers and crim­ inologists who have made a special study of burglary, and their brief was to consider the implications of their work for policy. As a policeman, I find their work of particular interest and relevance at this time when police per­ formance, as traditionally measured by the clear-up rate, is not keeping pace with the increase in the numbers of burglaries coming to police attention. The finding that increases in burglary are more reflective of the public's reporting habits than of any significant rise in the actual level of burglary helps with perspective but offers little comfort to policemen. The 600/0 in­ crease in the official statistics since 1970 is accompanied by a proportionate increase in police work in visiting victims, searching scenes of crime, writing crime reports, and completing other documentation. In some forces the point has been reached where available detective time is so taken up by the volume of visits and reports that there is little remaining for actual in­ vestigation. But because of the random and opportunist nature of burglary, it cannot be said with any confidence that increasing investigative capacity would make a significant and lasting impact on the overall burglary figures.

Research and evaluation in the human services usually involves a relatively large number of variables. We are interested in phenomena that have many aspects and many causes. The techniques needed to deal with many variables go beyond those of introductory statistics. Elementary procedures in statistics are limited in usefulness to situations in which we have two or three variables. When we have more than that, application of elementary techniques will often yield mis­ leading results. Why are elementary techniques inadequate when applied to many variables? Why, for example, should we not simply interpret a series of correlations of independent and dependent variables? The answer lies in the fact that these correlations are not independent pieces of information. The correlations of vari­ ables x and z with yare affected by the association of x with z. Hence, talk about the "effect" of x on y will be somewhat ambiguous, since we will be in­ cluding in that effect some of the effects of z. We would like to be able to sort out these effects. This is the problem of "estimation," that is, estimating the relationships or effects between variables, taking into account their relationships with other variables.

All countries confront the problem of providing for dependent, neglected, and 1 abused children. While the exact form of institutional response will differ in relation to a country's political and economic structure, its culture and its tradition, the same general kinds of child welfare services have been developed 2 everywhere. Literature from the United States, Canada, and several Western European countries reflects a shared concern about children who reside in unplanned, substitute care arrangements and a growing recognition of the importance of 3 making permanent plans for these children. The American response to this problem took shape in the early 1970s when government at the local, state, and 4 federal levels undertook to fund permanency planning projects. Permanency planning projects were charged with developing and testing procedures that would increase the likelihood that children would move out of substitute care arrangements into permanent family homes either through restoration to their biological families, termination of parental rights and subsequent adoption, court appointment of a legal guardian, or planned emancipation for older children. Long-term foster care, if it was a planned outcome supported by the use of written agreements between foster parents and child care agencies, was recognized as an appropriate option for some children. 2 DECISION MAKING IN CHILD WELFARE Permanency planning projects have had a direct effect on the substantive aspects of social work practice in child welfare.

In the United States and other western nations, debates rage over whether welfare, medical care, educational programs, and many other aspects of public policy should be the responsibility of central govern­ ment, local government, or the private sector. In most nations, the issues of regional autonomy and decentralization are constantly in the news, with intensity varying from mild debate to open warfare. Less visibly, battles are continuously fought in the political arena over what groups should have the right to make decisions concerning the allocation of soci­ ety's resources. In response to these concerns, social scientists have focused consider­ able attention on the causes and consequences of centralization and de­ centralization in political, economic, and social organizations. Their analyses of centralization have been varied, ranging from systems that are quite small (e. g. , the family, the firm, and the community) to those sys­ tems that are very large (e . g. , the welfare state). While centralization is a concept of major concern in most of the social science disciplines, each discipline has tended to focus on centralization with a different set of interests. Economists have been very much concerned with the causes and the consequences of the concentration of economic resources. Polit­ ical scientists have long sought to understand the origins and conse­ quences of dictatorship and democracy. Sociologists have focused on inequalities in the distribution of power.

Research and evaluation in the human services usually involves a relatively large number of variables. We are interested in phenomena that have many aspects and many causes. The techniques needed to deal with many variables go beyond those of introductory statistics. Elementary procedures in statistics are limited in usefulness to situations in which we have two or three variables. When we have more than that, application of elementary techniques will often yield mis­ leading results. Why are elementary techniques inadequate when applied to many variables? Why, for example, should we not simply interpret a series of correlations of independent and dependent variables? The answer lies in the fact that these correlations are not independent pieces of information. The correlations of vari­ ables x and z with yare affected by the association of x with z. Hence, talk about the "effect" of x on y will be somewhat ambiguous, since we will be in­ cluding in that effect some of the effects of z. We would like to be able to sort out these effects. This is the problem of "estimation," that is, estimating the relationships or effects between variables, taking into account their relationships with other variables.

This book deals with ways of helping families cope with the difficulty of rais­ ing adolescents. Professional social workers - along with other human ser­ vice professionals - encounter these families in numerous settings: child welfare and family service agencies, hospitals, schools, community mental health clinics, residential treatment centers, juvenile halls and detention centers, recreational and vocational training organizations, and many others. While families from all walks of life may be found in these settings, families who have suffered the additional stresses of poverty, discrimination, and the consequences of physical and mental illness are commonly overrepresented. Even under the best of circumstances, the adolescent years often put the strongest family structures to the test - sometimes to the breaking point. A recent national study of over one thousand average, middle-income, two­ parent families reviewed the strengths, stresses, and satisfactions of the family life cycle (Olson and McCubbin 1983). As many would expect, families with adolescents were found to experience more stress and lower levels of family adaptability, cohesion, and marital and family satisfaction than any other developmental stage. The families with adolescents who fared best were those with such marital resources as good communication and conflict resolution skills, satisfying sexual relations, and good parent-adolescent communication.

All countries confront the problem of providing for dependent, neglected, and 1 abused children. While the exact form of institutional response will differ in relation to a country's political and economic structure, its culture and its tradition, the same general kinds of child welfare services have been developed 2 everywhere. Literature from the United States, Canada, and several Western European countries reflects a shared concern about children who reside in unplanned, substitute care arrangements and a growing recognition of the importance of 3 making permanent plans for these children. The American response to this problem took shape in the early 1970s when government at the local, state, and 4 federal levels undertook to fund permanency planning projects. Permanency planning projects were charged with developing and testing procedures that would increase the likelihood that children would move out of substitute care arrangements into permanent family homes either through restoration to their biological families, termination of parental rights and subsequent adoption, court appointment of a legal guardian, or planned emancipation for older children. Long-term foster care, if it was a planned outcome supported by the use of written agreements between foster parents and child care agencies, was recognized as an appropriate option for some children. 2 DECISION MAKING IN CHILD WELFARE Permanency planning projects have had a direct effect on the substantive aspects of social work practice in child welfare.

In the United States and other western nations, debates rage over whether welfare, medical care, educational programs, and many other aspects of public policy should be the responsibility of central govern­ ment, local government, or the private sector. In most nations, the issues of regional autonomy and decentralization are constantly in the news, with intensity varying from mild debate to open warfare. Less visibly, battles are continuously fought in the political arena over what groups should have the right to make decisions concerning the allocation of soci­ ety's resources. In response to these concerns, social scientists have focused consider­ able attention on the causes and consequences of centralization and de­ centralization in political, economic, and social organizations. Their analyses of centralization have been varied, ranging from systems that are quite small (e. g. , the family, the firm, and the community) to those sys­ tems that are very large (e . g. , the welfare state). While centralization is a concept of major concern in most of the social science disciplines, each discipline has tended to focus on centralization with a different set of interests. Economists have been very much concerned with the causes and the consequences of the concentration of economic resources. Polit­ ical scientists have long sought to understand the origins and conse­ quences of dictatorship and democracy. Sociologists have focused on inequalities in the distribution of power.

This book contains the papers given at a workshop organised by the Home Office (England and Wales) on the subject of residential burglary. This is a topic of much public concern, and I welcome the Home Office initiative in mounting the workshop. The contributors were all researchers and crim­ inologists who have made a special study of burglary, and their brief was to consider the implications of their work for policy. As a policeman, I find their work of particular interest and relevance at this time when police per­ formance, as traditionally measured by the clear-up rate, is not keeping pace with the increase in the numbers of burglaries coming to police attention. The finding that increases in burglary are more reflective of the public's reporting habits than of any significant rise in the actual level of burglary helps with perspective but offers little comfort to policemen. The 600/0 in­ crease in the official statistics since 1970 is accompanied by a proportionate increase in police work in visiting victims, searching scenes of crime, writing crime reports, and completing other documentation. In some forces the point has been reached where available detective time is so taken up by the volume of visits and reports that there is little remaining for actual in­ vestigation. But because of the random and opportunist nature of burglary, it cannot be said with any confidence that increasing investigative capacity would make a significant and lasting impact on the overall burglary figures.