Studies in International Economics and Institutions – Serie

Dieses Buch enthält eine Darstellung des Finanzmarktansatzes, dem neuesten Ansatz zur Bestimmung flexibler Wechselkurse im Kontext internationaler Bewegungen von Finanzkapital. Es soll dem Leser eine konsistente theoretische Sicht der Simultaneität von kurz- und langfristigen Wechselkursschwankungen und internationalen Kapitalbewegungen vermitteln. Hierzu wird die einschlägige Literatur kritisch aufgearbeitet und durch drei eigene Modellversionen eines umfassenden Grundmodells ergänzt. In den neuen Modellen werden bislang vorliegende Inkonsistenzen zwischen der verbalen und der formalen Darstellung des Finanzmarktansatzes dadurch ausgeräumt, daß mindestens zwei international handelbare Vermögenstitel berücksichtigt werden. Es wird gezeigt, wie Wechselkurserwartungen, Zinserträge, Vermögensänderungen durch Umbewertungen und die Integration der Finanzmärkte die Dynamik der Wechselkurse beeinflussen und die Wirksamkeit wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen bestimmen.

A real imports of capital and intermediate goods declinedsharply for highlyindebted countries in the 1980s, theseeconomies were faced with the need tosubstitute previouslyimported factors of production with domestic capital andlabor. The study empirically analyzes the degree of importdependence of twelve developing countries. Estimates of theshort-run elasticity of substitution characterize bothimported capital and intermediate goods to behave likecomplements in the production process in the developingcountries. Long-run substitution elasticites differconsiderably among the group of economies, especially forimported machinery and equipment. The results indicate thatinward-oriented strategies have not achieved the aim ofreducing the import dependence of the developing economies.In order to visualize theimplications of the differingdegree of import dependence, a partial equilibriumeconometric model is used to analyze the reaction of thetrade account on external shocks and domestic policies inColumbia and Ecuador. Simulations show that the dependenceon imported production means can transform an "adjustmentwith growth" of the external account intoan "adjustment orgrowth" controversy.

Ass a f R a z i nand Hans-Jiirgen Vosgerau The eight chapters of this volume have been grouped into two parts. Part A of contains chapters which are mainly monetary in character, whereas real aspects international economics are treated in Part B. It goes without saying that this is only a device for structuring the field. In substance most chapters reveal the close connections between real and monetary aspects. Part A on "Inflation, Exchange Rates, and Macro-Economic Adjustment in the Global Economy" consists of four papers. In recent years, an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy has been adopted by New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Finland, Sweden, Australia, and Spain (in chronological order). The use of inflation targeting can be viewed as a further step in the evolution of monetary policy techniques adopted by central banks. A common feature of the countries that have adopted inflation targets is the relatively poor inflation record over the last 30 years compared with other industrial countries such as Germany, Switzerland, Japan and the United States. Because of their relatively good inflation record, this latter group of countries has not explicitly adopted inflation targeting. With, or without, explicit inflation targeting the monetary policy credibility hinges on the independence of the central bank. Alex Cukierman addresses the issue of central bank independence by surveying alternative ways to characterize independence.

Economic integration is the most noteworthy development in international economic policy at the end of this century. Enthusiasm for the European Union has been infectuous. Yet, there are many aspects for the EU that still remain obscure and which warrant further careful scrutiny. The subject of this book is the examination of the inherent economic and political inefficiencies in the transition process of Central and East European countries which are apt to slow down its pace, divert it from its proper course and, in some cases, even endanger its sustainability. The authors of the contributions in this book, economists and political scientists, investigate the applicability of the hyperthesis of mutual benefits resulting from countries in transition becoming open to international trade and investment.

New Institutional Arrangements for the World Economy Hans-Jiirgen Vosgerau, Konstanz I. The Problem During the first days of July 1987 the newly established Sonderforschungs­ bereich 178 "Internationalisierung der Wirtschaft" held its first symposium in Konstanz/Bodensee. "New Institutional Arrangements for the World Economy" were discussed by a group of economists and lawyers working in the fields of interna­ tional trade, international monetary economics, international finance, international public choice, and international economic law. Cooperation between these areas of research is an important condition for attaining the long-term aim of the Sonderforschungsbereich, viz. analysis of the complex interdependencies between international economic transactions of various kinds and international economy­ related institutions in a broad sense. The nature of these interdependencies seems to be crucial for the world economy's further development. A better understanding of their characteristics will be helpful for the solution of most imminent international economic problems. Four problem areas were especially addressed during the conference, each con­ sisting of three or four contributions. The revised papers are presented in this volume, each followed by a comment of the invited discussant, or by a summary of the discussion. The last contribution is meant as a summary conclusion and has no comment. The four problem areas discussed were: (1) Exchange rate stabilization and econ­ omic policy coordination, (2) International financial markets and their regulation, (3) Protectionism and the Uruguay GAIT-round, and (4) The institutional frame­ work for international production.

1. 1. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic performance Drastic oil price fluctuations have been a major characteristic of the world petroleum market since the beginning of the seventies. The oil crises of 1973n4 and 1979/80 were followed by a dramatic drop of the oil price during the first two quarters of 1986. Starting from a level less than 2 $ per barrel in 1972, the spot market price of Arabian Light crude oil increased to some 35 $ in 1980, then slowly decreased, and finally fell to 13 $ in 1986 (annual averages). If monthly data are considered, the peaks of the oil price movement look even more dramatic. In December 1980 Arabian crude was traded for more than 40 $ a barrel, and in August 1986 the price was down at 8 $ (see Fig. 1. 1). 40 30 20 10 r o 84 88 76 80 72 Figure 1. 1: The spot market price of Saudi-Arabian Light crude oil! ! Data are taken from the Petroleum Economist and the OPEC Bulletin, various issues. 2 After the Second World War petroleum has become the most important energy resource. During the fifties and sixties its price was relatively low compared to other energy 2 sources like coal and firewood and it tended to drive them out of the market.

Helmut Schneider 1. The Formulation of the Research Programme 1. In the late sixties the acceleration of US inflation revived the discussion of the fifties about the superiority of flexible exchange rates: The US balance of payments deteriorated since 1965, the dollar shortage after World War II changed to a dollar surplus. The import of US inflation by their main trading partners intensified political pressures so that at the beginning of the seventies most leading countries decided, contrary to the rules of the Bretton Woods agreement, to stop their intervention in the market for foreign exchange and to let the exchange rates be determined by market forces. It is worthwhile recalling that at that time one had only very limited experience with the regime of flexible exchange rates: The most important case, the floating of Canadian against the US dollar, could not be generalized to a world where nearly all important countries adhered to the regime of flexible exchange rates. ! - But one really had rich experience with destabilizing capital flows (or "hot money") that forced monetary authorities to adjust exchange rates in a system of managed flexibility to the expecta­ tions of "speculators".

New theories of international trade suggest that pro-tectionism can make sense. This finding depends on the in-troduction of market power and increasing returns to scaleinto the international trade theory. The enormous politicalimplications of this hypothesis have started a largeinterest in applied or empirical investigations of thisissue. However, econometric work in international trade iscomparatively scarce, especially if it comes to testing withindividual data. Therefore, this volume is considered to bea contribution to fill that gap. The volume consists ofthree parts: First, issues in strategic trade are discussedby means of a survey on recent contributions of theliteratureand by a simulation excercise on optimal tradepolicy for imperfectly competitive industries. Second, apart investigating the determinants of trade flows studiesthe interrelationships between trade balances and exchangerates, plant size and international trade, and the revelanceoffirm size and market concentration for the degree ofexport market integration using business survey firm data.Third, there are studies on imperfect markets, innovationsand learning which demonstrate the importanceof imperfectcompetition for international economics. All contributionsprovide empirical evidence for the revelance of the newlydeveloped trade theories and demonstrate useful quantitativetechniques for their investigation.

It is the main purpose of the book to give a logically consistent foundation of migration decision making under incomplete information in a unified framework. Decision rules for migration are derived from a general model of Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the properties of temporary migration equilibria are discussed as well. Finally, some hints are given for esti- mating the theoretical models which are elaborated in the book. Many results concerning the properties of optimal migration policies and of temporary migration equilibria are new. For example, it is demonstrated that less information about a country might it make more attractive for immigration, and conditions are analyzed that imply the existence of a significant stream of migrants even between identical countries in a temporary equilibrium state. The book is written for the mathematically oriented reader in economics, operations research or econometrics who is interested in application of Stochastic Dynamic Programming to an important field of research in population economics.