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    1. Samhälle och politik
    2. Politik och statsskick
    3. Statsvetenskap och politisk teori

    Evaluating Political Risk

    Modes of Thinking and Models of Analysis

    AvMatthew Taylor

    Häftad, Engelska, 2026

    490 kr

    Kommande

    Beskrivning

    Systematize political risk analysis with rigorous analytical tools The contemporary world faces a unique combination of interconnectedness with increasing levels of geopolitical uncertainty and political risk. The need for models and methods with which to evaluate uncertainty and risk has never been greater Evaluating Political Risk: Modes of Thinking and Models of Analysis provides a systematic analytical toolkit, presenting methods and models grounded in insights from psychology, public policy, political science, economics, and history. Evaluating Political Risk teaches readers to systematize their reasoning and apply analytical tools responsibly. The progressive chapter structure moves from foundational concepts of risk and uncertainty through increasingly sophisticated analytical models, developing cumulative competence. Each chapter pairs a specific method or model with applied illustrations, drawn from around the world. Readers will also find: A curriculum-ready chapter sequence designed to map onto a standard 15-week semester for graduate or advanced undergraduate coursesPractical guidance on analytical methods for assessing instability, navigating negotiations, and strategizing resource allocation Interdisciplinary frameworks integrating insights from psychology, economics, history, and public policy into coherent political risk methodsContemporary case studies illustrating each model's real-world application across multiple regions, political systems, and types of riskTools applicable beyond corporate settings, that can serve intelligence analysts, diplomats, NGO leaders, and journalists Written for advanced undergraduates, graduate students in international relations, political science, and business, as well as working professionals, Evaluating Political Risk delivers the analytical toolkit needed to reason through political risk and uncertainty with discipline and analytical rigor.

    Produktinformation

    • Utgivningsdatum:2026-10-26
    • Format:Häftad
    • Språk:Engelska
    • Antal sidor:288
    • Upplaga:26001
    • Förlag:John Wiley & Sons Inc
    • ISBN:9781394449729

    Utforska kategorier

    • Statsvetenskap och politisk teori inom Samhälle och politik
    • Internationella relationer inom Samhälle och politik

    Mer om författaren

    Matthew M. Taylor is Professor of International Studies at the School of International Service at American University. He has authored, co-authored, or co-edited five books and more than fifty academic articles. Taylor has been a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and adjunct senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Over the past thirty years, he has provided advisory services on Latin American economics and politics for a wide range of public and private sector clients in the United States, Europe, and Latin America.

    Innehållsförteckning

    • Acknowledgments xSECTION ONE Basic Building Blocks of AnalysisCHAPTER 1 Introduction to Political Risk Analysis 31.1 Political Risk is Everywhere 31.2 Risk, Politics, Analysis: Defining Core Concepts 41.3 Why Take Political Risk? 71.4 Toward a More Rigorous Practice of Political Risk Analysis 7Notes 9CHAPTER 2 Approaching Political Risk Systematically 102.1 The Qualities and Consequences of Risk 102.2 Risks and Risk Events 172.2.1 Terrain 172.2.2 First-Orderand Second-Order Effects 182.3 The Object of Risk 192.4 Cumulative Risk in a Context of Polycrisis 202.5 Building Systemic Risk Analysis 21Notes 21CHAPTER 3 Thinking Analytically About Political Risk 233.1 The Uses of Political Risk Analysis 233.2 Setting the Parameters for Political Risk Analysis 243.3 Recognizing the Limits and Challenges to Political Risk Analysis 263.4 Methodological Standards 323.4.1 Useful 323.4.2 Theoretically Informed 333.4.3 Transparent 343.4.4 Reliable 35Notes 37CHAPTER 4 The Building Blocks of Political Risk Analysis 394.1 Political Risk Analysis and the Scientific Method 394.2 Asking Good Questions 404.3 Developing Hypotheses 474.4 Considering the Evidence 504.5 Drawing Analytical Conclusions, Couched in Probabilistic Terms 514.6 Reappraising Our Analysis 52Notes 52SECTION TWO Framing Behavior: Preferences, Institutions, and ConstraintsCHAPTER 5 Leader Preferences, Beliefs, and Behavior 575.1 Preferences and Beliefs 585.2 Political Identity and Political Preferences 595.3 Leader Personality as a Clue to Action 615.4 Profiling Leader Personality 625.5 A Political Profile of Donald J. Trump 685.6 FInal Considerations: The art of Understanding Preferences and Behaviors 73Notes 74CHAPTER 6 Institutions 766.1 Institutions, Organizations, and Incentives 776.2 Institutions at Various Levels of Abstraction 796.2.1 Systems of Institutions: Limited-Access vs. Open-Access 796.2.2 Regime Clusters and Macro-Institutional Configurations 826.2.3 Emergent, Locale-Specific, and Institutional Configurations 896.2.4 Institutional Rules for Policymaking 94Notes 97CHAPTER 7 Constraints 997.1 Key Arguments of the Constraints Framework 1007.2 Political Constraints 1007.3 Economic and Financial Constraints 1037.4 Geopolitical Constraints 1057.5 Constitutional and Legal Constraints 1067.6 Considerations about the Constraints Framework 110Notes 110SECTION THREE Models of Political RiskCHAPTER 8 Descriptive Models of Risk 1158.1 Descriptive Models of Industrial Risk: FMEA and HAZOP 1158.2 Descriptive Models of Organizational Risk: PESTEL and SWOT 1168.3 Descriptive Models of Natural Risk: The Air Quality Index and the National Risk Index 1188.4 Descriptive Model of Geopolitical Capacity: Global Monetary and Financial Profiles of States 1218.5 Final Thoughts 123Notes 123CHAPTER 9 Political Risk Indices and Credit Ratings 1259.1 The International Country Risk Guide 1269.2 S&P Sovereign Ratings 1289.3 Considerations about Indices and Ratings 1309.3.1 What are They Explaining? 1309.3.2 Aggregation Method 1319.3.3 Explanatory Variables 1329.3.4 Objective and Subjective Measures 133Notes 135CHAPTER 10 Stakeholder Analysis 13710.1 Veto Players 13710.2 The Lockwood Model 14210.3 Static Stakeholder Analysis: The Prince and Bueno de Mesquita Models 14510.3.1 A Tale of Two Presidents: Venezuela 2019 14710.4 Dynamic Stakeholder Analysis 15310.5 Considerations about Stakeholder Analyses 155Notes 156CHAPTER 11 Financial Market Signals 15811.1 Basic Concepts for Understanding Markets 15911.2 Sovereign Debt Spreads as Signals 16111.3 Credit Default SWAPS 16211.4 Considerations about the use of Spreads 16311.5 The Shape of Yield Curves 16311.6 Exchange Rates as a Signal 16511.7 Investment Baskets as a Signal 16611.8 Commodities 16711.9 Volatility Measures 16711.10 Political Risk Insurance 16711.11 Final Considerations 169Notes 170CHAPTER 12 Surveys, Polls, and Electoral Forecasts 17112.1 Public Opinion Surveys 17112.2 Electoral Polling 17412.3 Poll Aggregators 18012.4 Electoral Forecasting Models 18112.5 Combined Models 18512.6 Final Considerations 186Notes 186CHAPTER 13 Crowd Prediction Systems 18713.1 The Wisdom of Crowds 18713.2 The Delphi Method 18813.3 Prediction Markets 19013.4 Crowd Forecasting 195Notes 198CHAPTER 14 Early Warning Models 19914.1 The Evolution of Early Warning Models 19914.2 Databases and Data Challenges 20114.3 Common Frameworks of Conflict Early Warning Models 20114.4 Statistical Early Warning Models 20414.4.1 The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) 20514.4.2 Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) 20614.5 Machine-Learning and AI-Implemented Early Warning Models 20914.6 Final Considerations 212Notes 213CHAPTER 15 Scenarios 21515.1 Shell and Scenario Analysis 21515.2 First-and Second-Generation Scenario Analysis 21715.3 The Nuts and Bolts of Scenario Development 21815.4 Considerations about Scenarios 225Notes 225CHAPTER 16 Wargaming 22716.1 Gaming out Uncertainty 22716.2 Types of Wargames 22816.3 The Origins of Analytical Wargaming 22916.4 Nuts and Bolts of Analytical Wargaming 23116.5 Considerations about Wargaming 233Notes 236CHAPTER 17 Concluding Thoughts 237References 239Index 263
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