Andrew Gelman – författare

Bayesian statistics and statistical practice have evolved over the years, driven by advancements in theory, methods, and computational tools. Bayesian Workflow explores the intricate workflows of applied Bayesian statistics, aiming to uncover the tacit knowledge often overlooked in published papers and textbooks. By systematizing the process of Bayesian model development, the book seeks to improve applied analyses and inspire future innovations in theory, methods, and software. It emphasizes the importance of iterative model building, model checking, computational troubleshooting, and simulated-data experimentation, offering a comprehensive perspective on statistical analysis.Through detailed examples and practical guidance, the book bridges the gap between theory and application, empowering practitioners and researchers to navigate the complexities of Bayesian inference. It is not a checklist or cookbook but a flexible framework for understanding and resolving challenges in statistical modeling and decision-making under uncertainty.FeaturesCovers all aspects of Bayesian statistical workflow, including model building, inference, validation, troubleshooting, and understandingDemonstrates iterative model development and computational problem-solving through real-world case studiesExplores computational challenges, calibration checking, and connections between modeling and computationHighlights the importance of checking models under diverse conditions to understand their limitations and improve their robustnessDiscusses how Bayesian principles apply to non-Bayesian methods in statistics and machine learningIncludes code snippets, exercises, and links to full datasets and code in R and Stan, with applicability to other programming environments like Python and JuliaThis book is designed for practitioners of applied Bayesian statistics, particularly users of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, as well as developers of methods and software tailored to these users. It also targets researchers in Bayesian theory and methods, offering insights into understudied aspects of statistical workflows. Instructors and students will find adaptable exercises and case studies to enhance their learning experience. Beyond Bayesian inference, the book’s principles are relevant to users of non-Bayesian methods, making it a valuable resource for statisticians, data scientists, and machine learning professionals seeking to improve their modeling and decision-making processes.

Students in the sciences, economics, social sciences, and medicine take an introductory statistics course. And yet statistics can be notoriously difficult for instructors to teach and for students to learn. To help overcome these challenges, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, activities, examples, and projects that involve active studentparticipation.Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and has chapters such as ''First week of class''— with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then descriptive statistics, graphics, linear regression, data collection (sampling and experimentation), probability, inference, and statistical communication. Part II gives tips on what works and what doesn''t, how to set up effective demonstrations, how to encourage students to participate inclass and to work effectively in group projects. Course plans for introductory statistics, statistics for social scientists, and communication and graphics are provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics, sampling, and datascience.

Students in the sciences, economics, social sciences, and medicine take an introductory statistics course. And yet statistics can be notoriously difficult for instructors to teach and for students to learn. To help overcome these challenges, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, activities, examples, and projects that involve active studentparticipation.Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and has chapters such as ''First week of class''— with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then descriptive statistics, graphics, linear regression, data collection (sampling and experimentation), probability, inference, and statistical communication. Part II gives tips on what works and what doesn''t, how to set up effective demonstrations, how to encourage students to participate inclass and to work effectively in group projects. Course plans for introductory statistics, statistics for social scientists, and communication and graphics are provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics, sampling, and datascience.

Students in the sciences, economics, social sciences, and medicine take an introductory statistics course. And yet statistics can be notoriously difficult for instructors to teach and for students to learn. To help overcome these challenges, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, activities, examples, and projects that involve active student participation. Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and has chapters such as 'First week of class'-- with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then descriptive statistics, graphics, linear regression, data collection (sampling and experimentation), probability, inference, and statistical communication. Part II gives tips on what works and what doesn't, how to set up effective demonstrations, how to encourage students to participate in class and to work effectively in group projects. Course plans for introductory statistics, statistics for social scientists, and communication and graphics are provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics, sampling, and data science.

Students in the sciences, economics, social sciences, and medicine take an introductory statistics course. And yet statistics can be notoriously difficult for instructors to teach and for students to learn. To help overcome these challenges, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, activities, examples, and projects that involve active student participation. Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and has chapters such as 'First week of class'-- with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then descriptive statistics, graphics, linear regression, data collection (sampling and experimentation), probability, inference, and statistical communication. Part II gives tips on what works and what doesn't, how to set up effective demonstrations, how to encourage students to participate in class and to work effectively in group projects. Course plans for introductory statistics, statistics for social scientists, and communication and graphics are provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics, sampling, and data science.

Bayesian statistics and statistical practice have evolved over the years, driven by advancements in theory, methods, and computational tools. Bayesian Workflow explores the intricate workflows of applied Bayesian statistics, aiming to uncover the tacit knowledge often overlooked in published papers and textbooks. By systematizing the process of Bayesian model development, the book seeks to improve applied analyses and inspire future innovations in theory, methods, and software. It emphasizes the importance of iterative model building, model checking, computational troubleshooting, and simulated-data experimentation, offering a comprehensive perspective on statistical analysis.Through detailed examples and practical guidance, the book bridges the gap between theory and application, empowering practitioners and researchers to navigate the complexities of Bayesian inference. It is not a checklist or cookbook but a flexible framework for understanding and resolving challenges in statistical modeling and decision-making under uncertainty.FeaturesCovers all aspects of Bayesian statistical workflow, including model building, inference, validation, troubleshooting, and understandingDemonstrates iterative model development and computational problem-solving through real-world case studiesExplores computational challenges, calibration checking, and connections between modeling and computationHighlights the importance of checking models under diverse conditions to understand their limitations and improve their robustnessDiscusses how Bayesian principles apply to non-Bayesian methods in statistics and machine learningIncludes code snippets, exercises, and links to full datasets and code in R and Stan, with applicability to other programming environments like Python and JuliaThis book is designed for practitioners of applied Bayesian statistics, particularly users of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, as well as developers of methods and software tailored to these users. It also targets researchers in Bayesian theory and methods, offering insights into understudied aspects of statistical workflows. Instructors and students will find adaptable exercises and case studies to enhance their learning experience. Beyond Bayesian inference, the book’s principles are relevant to users of non-Bayesian methods, making it a valuable resource for statisticians, data scientists, and machine learning professionals seeking to improve their modeling and decision-making processes.

The 5th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Carnegie Mellon University campus on September 24-25, 1999. As in the past, the workshop featured both invited and contributed case studies. The former were presented and discussed in detail while the latter were presented in poster format. This volume contains the three invited case studies with the accompanying discussion as well as ten contributed pa­ pers selected by a refereeing process. The majority of case studies in the volume come from biomedical research. However, the reader will also find studies in education and public policy, environmental pollution, agricul­ ture, and robotics. INVITED PAPERS The three invited cases studies at the workshop discuss problems in ed­ ucational policy, clinical trials design, and environmental epidemiology, respectively. 1. In School Choice in NY City: A Bayesian Analysis ofan Imperfect Randomized Experiment J. Barnard, C. Frangakis, J. Hill, and D. Rubin report on the analysis of the data from a randomized study conducted to evaluate the New YorkSchool Choice Scholarship Pro­ gram. The focus ofthe paper is on Bayesian methods for addressing the analytic challenges posed by extensive non-compliance among study participants and substantial levels of missing data. 2. In Adaptive Bayesian Designs for Dose-Ranging Drug Trials D. Berry, P. Mueller, A. Grieve, M. Smith, T. Parke, R. Blazek, N.

The 6th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Carnegie Mellon University in October, 2001. This volume contains the invited case studies with the accompanying discussion as well as contributed papers selected by a refereeing process.

Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives: An Essential Journey with Donald Rubin's Statistical FamilyThis book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data.Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications.Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques.Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference.Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences.Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.

This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin  has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data.

Key features of the book include:

Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.

Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models, first published in 2007, is a comprehensive manual for the applied researcher who wants to perform data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models. The book introduces a wide variety of models, whilst at the same time instructing the reader in how to fit these models using available software packages. The book illustrates the concepts by working through scores of real data examples that have arisen from the authors'' own applied research, with programming codes provided for each one. Topics covered include causal inference, including regression, poststratification, matching, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables, as well as multilevel logistic regression and missing-data imputation. Practical tips regarding building, fitting, and understanding are provided throughout.

Social scientists become experts in their own disciplines but aren't always familiar with what is going on in neighboring fields. To foster a deeper understanding of the interconnection of the social sciences, economists should know where historical data come from, sociologists should know how to think like economists, political scientists would benefit from understanding how models are tested in psychology, historians should learn how political processes are studied, psychologists should understand sociological theories, and so forth. This overview by prominent social scientists gives an accessible, non-technical sense of how quantitative research is done in different areas. Readers will find out about models and ways of thinking in economics, history, sociology, political science, and psychology, which in turn they can bring back to their own work.

Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models, first published in 2007, is a comprehensive manual for the applied researcher who wants to perform data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models. The book introduces a wide variety of models, whilst at the same time instructing the reader in how to fit these models using available software packages. The book illustrates the concepts by working through scores of real data examples that have arisen from the authors' own applied research, with programming codes provided for each one. Topics covered include causal inference, including regression, poststratification, matching, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables, as well as multilevel logistic regression and missing-data imputation. Practical tips regarding building, fitting, and understanding are provided throughout.

Social scientists become experts in their own disciplines but aren't always familiar with what is going on in neighboring fields. To foster a deeper understanding of the interconnection of the social sciences, economists should know where historical data come from, sociologists should know how to think like economists, political scientists would benefit from understanding how models are tested in psychology, historians should learn how political processes are studied, psychologists should understand sociological theories, and so forth. This overview by prominent social scientists gives an accessible, non-technical sense of how quantitative research is done in different areas. Readers will find out about models and ways of thinking in economics, history, sociology, political science, and psychology, which in turn they can bring back to their own work.

Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models, first published in 2007, is a comprehensive manual for the applied researcher who wants to perform data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models. The book introduces a wide variety of models, whilst at the same time instructing the reader in how to fit these models using available software packages. The book illustrates the concepts by working through scores of real data examples that have arisen from the authors' own applied research, with programming codes provided for each one. Topics covered include causal inference, including regression, poststratification, matching, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables, as well as multilevel logistic regression and missing-data imputation. Practical tips regarding building, fitting, and understanding are provided throughout.

On the night of the 2000 presidential election, Americans watched on television as polling results divided the nation's map into red and blue states. Since then the color divide has become symbolic of a culture war that thrives on stereotypes--pickup-driving red-state Republicans who vote based on God, guns, and gays; and elitist blue-state Democrats woefully out of touch with heartland values. With wit and prodigious number crunching, Andrew Gelman debunks these and other political myths. This expanded edition includes new data and easy-to-read graphics explaining the 2008 election. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State is a must-read for anyone seeking to make sense of today's fractured political landscape.

This book provides statistics instructors and students with complete classroom material for a one- or two-semester course on applied regression and causal inference. It is built around 52 stories, 52 class-participation activities, 52 hands-on computer demonstrations, and 52 discussion problems that allow instructors and students to explore in a fun way the real-world complexity of the subject. The book fosters an engaging 'flipped classroom' environment with a focus on visualization and understanding. The book provides instructors with frameworks for self-study or for structuring the course, along with tips for maintaining student engagement at all levels, and practice exam questions to help guide learning. Designed to accompany the authors' previous textbook Regression and Other Stories, its modular nature and wealth of material allow this book to be adapted to different courses and texts or be used by learners as a hands-on workbook.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo reflects the dramatic evolution of MCMC methods since the publication of the first edition. With the addition of two new editors, Radu V. Craiu and Dootika Vats, this comprehensive reference now offers deeper insights into the theoretical foundations and cutting-edge developments that are reshaping the field.Key Features:Completely restructured content with 13 updated chapters from the first edition and ten entirely new chapters reflecting the latest methodological advancesIn-depth coverage of recent breakthroughs in multi-modal sampling, intractable likelihood problems, and involutive MCMC theoryComprehensive exploration of unbiased MCMC methods, control variates, and rigorous convergence boundsPractical guidance on implementing MCMC algorithms on modern hardware and software platformsCutting-edge material on the integration of MCMC with deep learning and other machine learning approachesAuthoritative treatment of theoretical foundations alongside practical implementation strategiesSupplemented by a GitHub repository including sample chapters, code, and dataThis essential reference serves statisticians, computer scientists, physicists, data scientists, and researchers across disciplines who employ computational methods for Bayesian inference and stochastic simulation. Graduate students will find it an invaluable learning resource, while experienced practitioners will appreciate its balance of theoretical depth and practical implementation advice. Whether used as a comprehensive guide to current MCMC methodology or as a reference for specific advanced techniques, this handbook provides the definitive resource for anyone working at the intersection of Bayesian computation and modern statistical modeling.

Winner of the 2016 De Groot Prize from the International Society for Bayesian AnalysisNow in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied

Since their popularization in the 1990s, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionized statistical computing and have had an especially profound impact on the practice of Bayesian statistics. Furthermore, MCMC methods have enabled the development and use of intricate models in an astonishing array of disciplines as diverse as fisherie

Bayesian statistics and statistical practice have evolved over the years, driven by advancements in theory, methods, and computational tools. Bayesian Workflow explores the intricate workflows of applied Bayesian statistics, aiming to uncover the tacit knowledge often overlooked in published papers and textbooks. By systematizing the process of Bayesian model development, the book seeks to improve applied analyses and inspire future innovations in theory, methods, and software. It emphasizes the importance of iterative model building, model checking, computational troubleshooting, and simulated-data experimentation, offering a comprehensive perspective on statistical analysis.Through detailed examples and practical guidance, the book bridges the gap between theory and application, empowering practitioners and researchers to navigate the complexities of Bayesian inference. It is not a checklist or cookbook but a flexible framework for understanding and resolving challenges in statistical modeling and decision-making under uncertainty.Features Covers all aspects of Bayesian statistical workflow, including model building, inference, validation, troubleshooting, and understanding Demonstrates iterative model development and computational problem-solving through real-world case studies Explores computational challenges, calibration checking, and connections between modeling and computation Highlights the importance of checking models under diverse conditions to understand their limitations and improve their robustness Discusses how Bayesian principles apply to non-Bayesian methods in statistics and machine learning Includes code snippets, exercises, and links to full datasets and code in R and Stan, with applicability to other programming environments like Python and Julia This book is designed for practitioners of applied Bayesian statistics, particularly users of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, as well as developers of methods and software tailored to these users. It also targets researchers in Bayesian theory and methods, offering insights into understudied aspects of statistical workflows. Instructors and students will find adaptable exercises and case studies to enhance their learning experience. Beyond Bayesian inference, the book's principles are relevant to users of non-Bayesian methods, making it a valuable resource for statisticians, data scientists, and machine learning professionals seeking to improve their modeling and decision-making processes.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo reflects the dramatic evolution of MCMC methods since the publication of the first edition. With the addition of two new editors, Radu V. Craiu and Dootika Vats, this comprehensive reference now offers deeper insights into the theoretical foundations and cutting-edge developments that are reshaping the field.Key Features: Completely restructured content with 13 updated chapters from the first edition and ten entirely new chapters reflecting the latest methodological advances In-depth coverage of recent breakthroughs in multi-modal sampling, intractable likelihood problems, and involutive MCMC theory Comprehensive exploration of unbiased MCMC methods, control variates, and rigorous convergence bounds Practical guidance on implementing MCMC algorithms on modern hardware and software platforms Cutting-edge material on the integration of MCMC with deep learning and other machine learning approaches Authoritative treatment of theoretical foundations alongside practical implementation strategies Supplemented by a GitHub repository including sample chapters, code, and data This essential reference serves statisticians, computer scientists, physicists, data scientists, and researchers across disciplines who employ computational methods for Bayesian inference and stochastic simulation. Graduate students will find it an invaluable learning resource, while experienced practitioners will appreciate its balance of theoretical depth and practical implementation advice. Whether used as a comprehensive guide to current MCMC methodology or as a reference for specific advanced techniques, this handbook provides the definitive resource for anyone working at the intersection of Bayesian computation and modern statistical modeling.

Bayesian statistics and statistical practice have evolved over the years, driven by advancements in theory, methods, and computational tools. Bayesian Workflow explores the intricate workflows of applied Bayesian statistics, aiming to uncover the tacit knowledge often overlooked in published papers and textbooks. By systematizing the process of Bayesian model development, the book seeks to improve applied analyses and inspire future innovations in theory, methods, and software. It emphasizes the importance of iterative model building, model checking, computational troubleshooting, and simulated-data experimentation, offering a comprehensive perspective on statistical analysis.Through detailed examples and practical guidance, the book bridges the gap between theory and application, empowering practitioners and researchers to navigate the complexities of Bayesian inference. It is not a checklist or cookbook but a flexible framework for understanding and resolving challenges in statistical modeling and decision-making under uncertainty.Features Covers all aspects of Bayesian statistical workflow, including model building, inference, validation, troubleshooting, and understanding Demonstrates iterative model development and computational problem-solving through real-world case studies Explores computational challenges, calibration checking, and connections between modeling and computation Highlights the importance of checking models under diverse conditions to understand their limitations and improve their robustness Discusses how Bayesian principles apply to non-Bayesian methods in statistics and machine learning Includes code snippets, exercises, and links to full datasets and code in R and Stan, with applicability to other programming environments like Python and Julia This book is designed for practitioners of applied Bayesian statistics, particularly users of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, as well as developers of methods and software tailored to these users. It also targets researchers in Bayesian theory and methods, offering insights into understudied aspects of statistical workflows. Instructors and students will find adaptable exercises and case studies to enhance their learning experience. Beyond Bayesian inference, the book's principles are relevant to users of non-Bayesian methods, making it a valuable resource for statisticians, data scientists, and machine learning professionals seeking to improve their modeling and decision-making processes.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo reflects the dramatic evolution of MCMC methods since the publication of the first edition. With the addition of two new editors, Radu V. Craiu and Dootika Vats, this comprehensive reference now offers deeper insights into the theoretical foundations and cutting-edge developments that are reshaping the field.Key Features: Completely restructured content with 13 updated chapters from the first edition and ten entirely new chapters reflecting the latest methodological advances In-depth coverage of recent breakthroughs in multi-modal sampling, intractable likelihood problems, and involutive MCMC theory Comprehensive exploration of unbiased MCMC methods, control variates, and rigorous convergence bounds Practical guidance on implementing MCMC algorithms on modern hardware and software platforms Cutting-edge material on the integration of MCMC with deep learning and other machine learning approaches Authoritative treatment of theoretical foundations alongside practical implementation strategies Supplemented by a GitHub repository including sample chapters, code, and data This essential reference serves statisticians, computer scientists, physicists, data scientists, and researchers across disciplines who employ computational methods for Bayesian inference and stochastic simulation. Graduate students will find it an invaluable learning resource, while experienced practitioners will appreciate its balance of theoretical depth and practical implementation advice. Whether used as a comprehensive guide to current MCMC methodology or as a reference for specific advanced techniques, this handbook provides the definitive resource for anyone working at the intersection of Bayesian computation and modern statistical modeling.

Most textbooks on regression focus on theory and the simplest of examples. Real statistical problems, however, are complex and subtle. This is not a book about the theory of regression. It is about using regression to solve real problems of comparison, estimation, prediction, and causal inference. Unlike other books, it focuses on practical issues such as sample size and missing data and a wide range of goals and techniques. It jumps right in to methods and computer code you can use immediately. Real examples, real stories from the authors' experience demonstrate what regression can do and its limitations, with practical advice for understanding assumptions and implementing methods for experiments and observational studies. They make a smooth transition to logistic regression and GLM. The emphasis is on computation in R and Stan rather than derivations, with code available online. Graphics and presentation aid understanding of the models and model fitting.

Most textbooks on regression focus on theory and the simplest of examples. Real statistical problems, however, are complex and subtle. This is not a book about the theory of regression. It is about using regression to solve real problems of comparison, estimation, prediction, and causal inference. Unlike other books, it focuses on practical issues such as sample size and missing data and a wide range of goals and techniques. It jumps right in to methods and computer code you can use immediately. Real examples, real stories from the authors' experience demonstrate what regression can do and its limitations, with practical advice for understanding assumptions and implementing methods for experiments and observational studies. They make a smooth transition to logistic regression and GLM. The emphasis is on computation in R and Stan rather than derivations, with code available online. Graphics and presentation aid understanding of the models and model fitting.

Most textbooks on regression focus on theory and the simplest of examples. Real statistical problems, however, are complex and subtle. This is not a book about the theory of regression. It is about using regression to solve real problems of comparison, estimation, prediction, and causal inference. Unlike other books, it focuses on practical issues such as sample size and missing data and a wide range of goals and techniques. It jumps right in to methods and computer code you can use immediately. Real examples, real stories from the authors'' experience demonstrate what regression can do and its limitations, with practical advice for understanding assumptions and implementing methods for experiments and observational studies. They make a smooth transition to logistic regression and GLM. The emphasis is on computation in R and Stan rather than derivations, with code available online. Graphics and presentation aid understanding of the models and model fitting.