Collette Schulz-Herzenberg – författare
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The sixth general election since the arrival of democracy occurs at a critical moment in South Africa’s history. The immediate question this book poses is will the ANC manage to manufacture a sixth electoral victory despite its disastrous record in government since 2014? It finds the answer in the personal popularity of Ramaphosa, the ANC’s capacity to forge political unity when confronted by the risk of losing power, established voting trends amongst older voters, a sharp decline in participation among the youth which might otherwise have produced electoral shifts, and the failure of opposition parties to present themselves as viable alternatives. The subsequent question is what the consequences of a sixth successive election victory for the ANC will be for South African democracy. Will the ANC’s triumph provide a sufficiently strong mandate for Ramaphosa to turn South Africa around, or will he fail to overcome Zuma’s allies within the party? Whether he succeeds or fails, will the ANC manage to hold itself together? Is the future and quality of South African democracy dictated by whether the ANC stays together or splits into rival parts? Election 2019 covers the context of the election, analyses changing voter participation and attitudes, outlines party campaigns, and explores the role of gender and the media before evaluating the result. At its heart is the issue of whether South African democracy will survive.
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A vital and authoritative resource for all citizens by a duo with a track record. Collette Schulz-Herzenberg and Roger Southall's collaboration can always be relied upon to provide a succinctly comprehensive review of South African elections. The fourth in a series on South African elections, this book promises to be the most consequential. South Africa is facing its worst economic crisis since the inauguration of democracy. Preliminary polls suggest that there are high expectations that the ANC, the ruling party since 1994, will likely lose its predominance, compelling it to forge a coalition with other parties to retain its grip on power. A coalition government is not new to democratic South Africa. In the early days of democracy, coalition governments operated at a provincial level in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal before giving way to DA dominance in the Western Cape and ANC dominance in KwaZulu-Natal and other provinces. However, ANC's dominance has recently been disrupted, with pre-election indications suggesting that along with the potential loss of its majority at the national level, it will also lose control of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. The vital questions this book poses are: What is causing this disruption? What is the possible impact? What are the coalition government's prospects in South Africa? Does coalition government offer the prospect of a democratic renewal, or will it plunge South Africa into further crisis? The book begins by providing a comprehensive survey of this latest contest's turbulent political and economic background. It then outlines and assesses how electoral reform ordered by the Constitutional Court will affect the electoral landscape. This will be summed up by critical insights into the changes in public opinion, electoral participation and political (re)alignment. The second section provides detailed and highly informed analyses of the campaigns of the significant contesting parties. It explores how the ANC has sought to prevent its much-predicted electoral decline, how the DA has tried to overcome the much-highlighted racial limits in its popular appeal, and how the EFF's populism has defined (and limited?) its performance. The electoral system has always encouraged participation by a multiplicity of political parties. Section three offers analyses of the potential and performances of established smaller parties (notably the IFP and VF+), complemented by a study of the origins, inspiration and campaigns of myriad new arrivals to the electoral scene. It further explores how these are related to recent electoral reforms. Do they have a significant social base? What are their regional and spatial dimensions? Are they vehicles of an increasingly disaffected middle class? Do they provide a stable basis for a coalition government, or is South Africa about to embark upon a governmental game of musical chairs and resultant political instability? The final chapters provide a detailed review of the election results at national and provincial levels, wrapped up by the editors offering their assessment of their immediate and longer-term significance.