Henrik Madsen - Böcker

Statistics for Finance develops students’ professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors’ courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics that rarely connect concepts to data and books on econometrics and time series analysis that do not cover specific problems related to option valuation. The book discusses applications of financial derivatives pertaining to risk assessment and elimination. The authors cover various statistical and mathematical techniques, including linear and nonlinear time series analysis, stochastic calculus models, stochastic differential equations, Itō’s formula, the Black–Scholes model, the generalized method-of-moments, and the Kalman filter. They explain how these tools are used to price financial derivatives, identify interest rate models, value bonds, estimate parameters, and much more. This textbook will help students understand and manage empirical research in financial engineering. It includes examples of how the statistical tools can be used to improve value-at-risk calculations and other issues. In addition, end-of-chapter exercises develop students’ financial reasoning skills.

Do you have data on occupant behaviour, indoor environment or energy use in buildings? Are you interested in statistical analysis and modelling? Do you have a specific (research) question and dataset and would like to know how to answer the question with the data available?Statistical Modelling of Occupant Behaviour covers a range of statistical methods and models used for modelling energy- and comfort-related occupant behaviour in buildings. It is a classical textbook on statistics, including many practical examples related to occupant behaviour that are either taken from real research problems or adapted from such.The main focus is traditional statistical techniques based on the likelihood principle that can be applied to occupant behaviour modelling, including:General, generalised linear and survival modelsMixed effect and hierarchical modelsLinear time series and Markov modelsLinear state space and hidden Markov modelsIllustration of all methods using occupant behaviour examples implemented in RThe built environment affects occupants who live and work in it, and occupants affect the built environment by adapting it to their needs – for example, by adapting their indoor environments by interacting with building components and systems. These adaptive behaviours account for great uncertainty in the prediction of building energy use and indoor environmental conditions. Occupant behaviour is complex and multi-disciplinary but can be successfully modelled using statistical approaches.Statistical Modelling of Occupant Behaviour is written for researchers and advanced practitioners who work with real-world applications and modelling of occupant data. It describes the kinds of statistical models that may be used in various occupant behaviour modelling research. It gives a theoretical overview of these methods and then applies them to the study of occupant behaviour using readily replaceable examples in the R environment that are based on actual and experimental data.

Bridging the gap between theory and practice for modern statistical model building, Introduction to General and Generalized Linear Models presents likelihood-based techniques for statistical modelling using various types of data. Implementations using R are provided throughout the text, although other software packages are also discussed. Numerous examples show how the problems are solved with R.After describing the necessary likelihood theory, the book covers both general and generalized linear models using the same likelihood-based methods. It presents the corresponding/parallel results for the general linear models first, since they are easier to understand and often more well known. The authors then explore random effects and mixed effects in a Gaussian context. They also introduce non-Gaussian hierarchical models that are members of the exponential family of distributions. Each chapter contains examples and guidelines for solving the problems via R. Providing a flexible framework for data analysis and model building, this text focuses on the statistical methods and models that can help predict the expected value of an outcome, dependent, or response variable. It offers a sound introduction to general and generalized linear models using the popular and powerful likelihood techniques. Ancillary materials are available at www.imm.dtu.dk/~hm/GLM

With a focus on analyzing and modeling linear dynamic systems using statistical methods, Time Series Analysis formulates various linear models, discusses their theoretical characteristics, and explores the connections among stochastic dynamic models. Emphasizing the time domain description, the author presents theorems to highlight the most important results, proofs to clarify some results, and problems to illustrate the use of the results for modeling real-life phenomena.The book first provides the formulas and methods needed to adapt a second-order approach for characterizing random variables as well as introduces regression methods and models, including the general linear model. It subsequently covers linear dynamic deterministic systems, stochastic processes, time domain methods where the autocorrelation function is key to identification, spectral analysis, transfer-function models, and the multivariate linear process. The text also describes state space models and recursive and adaptivemethods. The final chapter examines a host of practical problems, including the predictions of wind power production and the consumption of medicine, a scheduling system for oil delivery, and the adaptive modeling of interest rates. Concentrating on the linear aspect of this subject, Time Series Analysis provides an accessible yet thorough introduction to the methods for modeling linear stochastic systems. It will help you understand the relationship between linear dynamic systems and linear stochastic processes.

Bridging the gap between theory and practice for modern statistical model building, Introduction to General and Generalized Linear Models presents likelihood-based techniques for statistical modelling using various types of data. Implementations using R are provided throughout the text, although other software packages are also discussed. Numerous examples show how the problems are solved with R.After describing the necessary likelihood theory, the book covers both general and generalized linear models using the same likelihood-based methods. It presents the corresponding/parallel results for the general linear models first, since they are easier to understand and often more well known. The authors then explore random effects and mixed effects in a Gaussian context. They also introduce non-Gaussian hierarchical models that are members of the exponential family of distributions. Each chapter contains examples and guidelines for solving the problems via R. Providing a flexible framework for data analysis and model building, this text focuses on the statistical methods and models that can help predict the expected value of an outcome, dependent, or response variable. It offers a sound introduction to general and generalized linear models using the popular and powerful likelihood techniques. Ancillary materials are available at www.imm.dtu.dk/~hm/GLM

Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets

Statistics for Finance develops students’ professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors’ courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics that rarely connect concepts to data and books on econometrics and time series analysis that do not cover specific problems related to option valuation. The book discusses applications of financial derivatives pertaining to risk assessment and elimination. The authors cover various statistical and mathematical techniques, including linear and nonlinear time series analysis, stochastic calculus models, stochastic differential equations, Itō’s formula, the Black–Scholes model, the generalized method-of-moments, and the Kalman filter. They explain how these tools are used to price financial derivatives, identify interest rate models, value bonds, estimate parameters, and much more. This textbook will help students understand and manage empirical research in financial engineering. It includes examples of how the statistical tools can be used to improve value-at-risk calculations and other issues. In addition, end-of-chapter exercises develop students’ financial reasoning skills.

This addition to the ISOR series addresses the analytics of the operations of electric energy systems with increasing penetration of stochastic renewable production facilities, such as wind- and solar-based generation units.As stochastic renewable production units become ubiquitous throughout electric energy systems, an increasing level of flexible backup provided by non-stochastic units and other system agents is needed if supply security and quality are to be maintained.Within the context above, this book provides up-to-date analytical tools to address challenging operational problems such as:• The modeling and forecasting of stochastic renewable power production.• The characterization of the impact of renewable production on market outcomes.• The clearing of electricity markets with high penetration of stochastic renewable units.• The development of mechanisms to counteract the variability and unpredictability of stochastic renewable units so that supply security is not at risk.• The trading of the electric energy produced by stochastic renewable producers.• The association of a number of electricity production facilities, stochastic and others, to increase their competitive edge in the electricity market.• The development of procedures to enable demand response and to facilitate the integration of stochastic renewable units.This book is written in a modular and tutorial manner and includes many illustrative examples to facilitate its comprehension. It is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the fields of electric energy systems, applied mathematics and economics. Practitioners in the electric energy sector will benefit as well from the concepts and techniques explained in this book.