Howell A M Tong - Böcker

This volume constitutes the proceedings of the Hong Kong International Workshop on Statistics in Finance, held at the University of Hong Kong in July 1999. Topics covered include heavy-tailed and nonlinear continuous-time ARMA models for financial time series, and forecast evaluation.

This volume is the first in the new series Nonlinear Time Series and Chaos. The general aim of the series is to provide a bridge between the two communities by inviting prominent researchers in their respective fields to give a systematic account of their chosen topics, starting at the beginning and ending with the latest state. It is hoped that researchers in both communities will find the topics relevant and thought provoking. In this volume, the first chapter, written by Professor Colleen Cutler, is a comprehensive account of the theory and estimation of fractal dimension, a topic of central importance in dynamical systems, which has recently attracted the attention of the statisticians. As it is natural to study a stochastic dynamical system within the framework of Markov chains, it is therefore relevant to study their limiting behaviour. The second chapter, written by Professor Kung-Sik Chan, reviews some limit theorems of Markov chains and illustrates their relevance to chaos. The next three chapters are concerned with specific models. Briefly, Chapter Three by Professor Peter Lewis and Dr Bonnie Ray and Chapter Four by Professor Peter Brockwell generalise the class of self-exciting threshold autoregressive models in different directions. In Chapter Three, the new and powerful methodology of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is adapted to time series data. Its versatility is illustrated by reference to the very interesting and complex sea surface temperature data. Chapter Four exploits the greater tractability of continuous-time Markov approach to discrete-time data. The approach is particularly relevant to irregularly sampled data. The concluding chapter, by Professor Pham Dinh Tuan, is likely to be the most definitive account of bilinear models in discrete time to date.

It is now generally recognised that very simple dynamical systems can produce apparently random behaviour. In the last couple of years, attention has turned to focus on the flip side of this coin: random-looking time series (or random-looking patterns in space) may indeed be the result of very complicated processes or “real noise”, but they may equally well be produced by some very simple mechanism (a low-dimensional attractor). In either case, a long-term prediction will be possible only in probabilistic terms. However, in the very short term, random systems will still be unpredictable but low-dimensional chaotic ones may be predictable (appearances to the contrary). The Royal Society held a two-day discussion meeting on topics covering diverse fields, including biology, economics, geophysics, meteorology, statistics, epidemiology, earthquake science and many others. Each topic was covered by a leading expert in the field. The meeting dealt with different basic approaches to the problem of chaos and forecasting, and covered applications to nonlinear forecasting of both artificially-generated time series and real data from context in the above-mentioned diverse fields. This book marks a rather special and rare occasion on which prominent scientists from different areas converge on the same theme. It forms an informative introduction to the science of chaos, with special reference to real data.

It is now generally recognised that very simple dynamical systems can produce apparently random behaviour. In the last couple of years, attention has turned to focus on the flip side of this coin: random-looking time series (or random-looking patterns in space) may indeed be the result of very complicated processes or “real noise”, but they may equally well be produced by some very simple mechanism (a low-dimensional attractor). In either case, a long-term prediction will be possible only in probabilistic terms. However, in the very short term, random systems will still be unpredictable but low-dimensional chaotic ones may be predictable (appearances to the contrary). The Royal Society held a two-day discussion meeting on topics covering diverse fields, including biology, economics, geophysics, meteorology, statistics, epidemiology, earthquake science and many others. Each topic was covered by a leading expert in the field. The meeting dealt with different basic approaches to the problem of chaos and forecasting, and covered applications to nonlinear forecasting of both artificially-generated time series and real data from context in the above-mentioned diverse fields. This book marks a rather special and rare occasion on which prominent scientists from different areas converge on the same theme. It forms an informative introduction to the science of chaos, with special reference to real data.