M. Ghil – författare

One of the main reasons we cannot tell what the weather will be tomorrow is that we do not know accurately enough what the weather is today. Mathematically speaking, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear partial differential equations in which the necessary initial values are known only incompletely and inaccurately. Data at the initial time of a numerical forecast can be supplemented, however, by observations of the atmos­ phere over a time interval preceding it. New observing systems, in particular polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites, which are providing observations continuously in time, make is absolutely necess­ ary to find new and more satisfactory methods of assimilating meteorological observations - for the dual purpose of defining atmospheric states and of issuing forecasts from the states thus defined. FUndamental progress in this area has been made in recent years and this book attempts to give a review and some suggestions for further improvements in the field of meteorological data assimila­ tion methods. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) every year organises seminars for the benefit of meteorologists and geophysicists of the ECMWF Member states. The 1980 Seminar was devoted to data assimilation methods, and this book contains selected lectures from that seminar. The purpose of the seminar was twofold: it was intended to give a basic introduction to the subject, as well as an overview of the latest developments in the field.

The vigorous stirring of a cup of tea gives rise, as we all know, to interesting fluid dynamical phenomena, some of which are very hard to explain. In this book our "cup of tea" contains the currents of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and fluid core. Our goal is to under­ stand the basic physical processes which are most important in describing what we observe, directly or indirectly, in these complex systems. While in many respects our understanding is measured by the ability to predict, the focus here will be on relatively simple models which can aid our physical intuition by suggesting useful mathematical methods of investiga­ tion. These elementary models can be viewed as part of a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity, moving toward those which might be use­ fully predictive. The discussion in this book will deal primarily with the Earth. Interplanetary probes of Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn have revealed many exciting phenomena which bear on geophysical fluid dynamics. They have also enabled us to see the effect of changing the values of certain parameters, such as gravity and rotation rate, on geophysical flows. On the other hand, satellite observations of our own planet on a daily and hourly basis have turned it into a unique laboratory for the study of fluid motions on a scale never dreamt of before: the motion of cyclones can be observed via satellite just as wing tip vortices are studied in a wind tunnel.

The vigorous stirring of a cup of tea gives rise, as we all know, to interesting fluid dynamical phenomena, some of which are very hard to explain. In this book our "cup of tea" contains the currents of the Earth''s atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and fluid core. Our goal is to under­ stand the basic physical processes which are most important in describing what we observe, directly or indirectly, in these complex systems. While in many respects our understanding is measured by the ability to predict, the focus here will be on relatively simple models which can aid our physical intuition by suggesting useful mathematical methods of investiga­ tion. These elementary models can be viewed as part of a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity, moving toward those which might be use­ fully predictive. The discussion in this book will deal primarily with the Earth. Interplanetary probes of Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn have revealed many exciting phenomena which bear on geophysical fluid dynamics. They have also enabled us to see the effect of changing the values of certain parameters, such as gravity and rotation rate, on geophysical flows. On the other hand, satellite observations of our own planet on a daily and hourly basis have turned it into a unique laboratory for the study of fluid motions on a scale never dreamt of before: the motion of cyclones can be observed via satellite just as wing tip vortices are studied in a wind tunnel.