Rein Taagepera - Böcker

For a given electoral system, what average number and sizes of parties and government duration can we expect? Predicting Party Sizes is the first book to make specific predictions that agree with world averages. The basic factors are the numbers of seats in the assembly and in the average electoral district. While previous models tell us only the direction in which to change the electoral system, the present ones also tell us by how much they must be changed so as to obtain the desired change in average number of parties and cabinet duration. Hence, combined with known particularities of a country, they can be used for informed institutional design.The book is useful to three types of readers: political science students learning the basics of electoral systems and their political consequences; practitioners of politics who consider changing the electoral laws; and researchers intent on connecting electoral and party systems. The book is structured accordingly. Chapters start with advice and recipes for practicing politicians, in non-technical language. The main text gives students an overview of electoral systems, worldwide, and supplies evidence for models that tie simple electoral systems (First-Past-The-Post and List Proportional Representation) to the number and sizes of parties and government duration. Chapter appendices present derivations of these models and other more technical issues of interest to researchers.

In his challenging new book Rein Taagepera argues that society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social sciences have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, neglecting logical model building. Science is not only about the empirical 'What is?' but also very much about the conceptual 'How should it be on logical grounds?' Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while quantitatively formulated logical models are predictive in an explanatory way. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough contrasts the predominance of statistics in today's social sciences and predominance of quantitatively predictive logical models in physics. It shows how to construct predictive models and gives social science examples. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough is useful to students who wish to learn the basics of the scientific method and to all those researchers who look for ways to do better social science.

After breaking free from the Bolsheviks in 1918, Estonia enjoyed independence until 1940, when the country was subsumed by the Soviet Union. Not until 1991 was Estonia able to make its next successful bid for sovereignty. In this book, Rein Taagepera traces the evolution of Estonia from prehistory to the present, when a radical turn of events in th

After breaking free from the Bolsheviks in 1918, Estonia enjoyed independence until 1940 when the country was subsumed by the Soviet Union. Not until 1991 was Estonia able to make its next successful bid for sovereignty. In this book, Rein Taagepera traces the evolution of Estonia from prehistory to the present, when a radical turn of events in the former Soviet Union once again altered the destiny of this Baltic nation. The author explores in depth the remarkable changes in Estonia since 1980, framing his analysis within the larger picture of the Soviet Union and its demise. He also examines the issue of ethnic tensions between Estonians and Russian colonists and speculates on how unrest will affect the future of the country. Throughout his analysis, the author weaves in such key questions as: Why did Sovietization fail? How did Estonia’s quest for autonomy affect Soviet dissolution? What role will the country play on the global stage? What will Estonia’s future hold?

The long-term development of political systems over extended time periods has been somewhat neglected. More People, Fewer States examines world history through population explosion and empire size changes across 5000 years of socio-technological development, revealing three distinct phases: Runner, Rider, and Engineer empires. A careful comparative approach reveals that Old Egypt, Achaemenid, Caliphate, Mongol, and Britain each achieved remarkable yet rarely acknowledged expansions, leading to their successive record empire sizes. If identified past trends persist, a potential single world state could emerge by 4600, although environmental concerns may intervene. Focusing on population dynamics and area metrics of states, this book provides a novel framework for evaluating the growth, structure, and decline of empires. It not only illuminates ancient historical space but also ventures into future projections, making it an essential read for scholars interested in the long-term evolution of political systems.

The long-term development of political systems over extended time periods has been somewhat neglected. More People, Fewer States examines world history through population explosion and empire size changes across 5000 years of socio-technological development, revealing three distinct phases: Runner, Rider, and Engineer empires. A careful comparative approach reveals that Old Egypt, Achaemenid, Caliphate, Mongol, and Britain each achieved remarkable yet rarely acknowledged expansions, leading to their successive record empire sizes. If identified past trends persist, a potential single world state could emerge by 4600, although environmental concerns may intervene. Focusing on population dynamics and area metrics of states, this book provides a novel framework for evaluating the growth, structure, and decline of empires. It not only illuminates ancient historical space but also ventures into future projections, making it an essential read for scholars interested in the long-term evolution of political systems.

Take the number of seats in a representative assembly and the number of seats in districts through which this assembly is elected. From just these two numbers, the authors of Votes from Seats show that it is possible to deduce the number of parties in the assembly and in the electorate, as well as the size of the largest party. Inside parties, the vote distributions of individual candidates likewise follow predictable patterns. Four laws of party seats and votes are constructed by logic and tested, using scientific approaches rare in social sciences. Both complex and simple electoral systems are covered, and the book offers a set of 'best practices' for electoral system design. The ability to predict so much from so little, and to apply to countries worldwide, is an advance in the systematic analysis of a core institutional feature found in any democracy, and points the way towards making social sciences more predictive.