Vladimir Vovk - Böcker

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detection. As practitioners and researchers around the world apply and adapt the framework, this edited volume brings together these bodies of work, providing a springboard for further research as well as a handbook for application in real-world problems. Understand the theoretical foundations of this important framework that can provide a reliable measure of confidence with predictions in machine learning Be able to apply this framework to real-world problems in different machine learning settings, including classification, regression, and clustering Learn effective ways of adapting the framework to newer problem settings, such as active learning, model selection, or change detection

Algorithmic Learning in a Random World describes recent theoretical and experimental developments in building computable approximations to Kolmogorov's algorithmic notion of randomness. Based on these approximations, a new set of machine learning algorithms have been developed that can be used to make predictions and to estimate their confidence and credibility in high-dimensional spaces under the usual assumption that the data are independent and identically distributed (assumption of randomness). Another aim of this unique monograph is to outline some limits of predictions: The approach based on algorithmic theory of randomness allows for the proof of impossibility of prediction in certain situations. The book describes how several important machine learning problems, such as density estimation in high-dimensional spaces, cannot be solved if the only assumption is randomness.

Game-theoretic probability and finance come of ageGlenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity premium, and portfolio theory.Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance is a book of research. It is also a teaching resource. Each chapter is supplemented with carefully designed exercises and notes relating the new theory to its historical context.Praise from early readers“Ever since Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe, the standard mathematical treatment of probability theory has been measure-theoretic. In this ground-breaking work, Shafer and Vovk give a game-theoretic foundation instead. While being just as rigorous, the game-theoretic approach allows for vast and useful generalizations of classical measure-theoretic results, while also giving rise to new, radical ideas for prediction, statistics and mathematical finance without stochastic assumptions. The authors set out their theory in great detail, resulting in what is definitely one of the most important books on the foundations of probability to have appeared in the last few decades.” – Peter Grünwald, CWI and University of Leiden“Shafer and Vovk have thoroughly re-written their 2001 book on the game-theoretic foundations for probability and for finance. They have included an account of the tremendous growth that has occurred since, in the game-theoretic and pathwise approaches to stochastic analysis and in their applications to continuous-time finance. This new book will undoubtedly spur a better understanding of the foundations of these very important fields, and we should all be grateful to its authors.” – Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University

This book is about conformal prediction, an approach to prediction that originated in machine learning in the late 1990s.

This book is about conformal prediction, an approach to prediction that originated in machine learning in the late 1990s.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Statistical Learning and Data Sciences, SLDS 2015, held in Egham, Surrey, UK, April 2015.

This book brings together historical notes, reviews of research developments, fresh ideas on how to make VC (Vapnik–Chervonenkis) guarantees tighter, and new technical contributions in the areas of machine learning, statistical inference, classification, algorithmic statistics, and pattern recognition. The contributors are leading scientists in domains such as statistics, mathematics, and theoretical computer science, and the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in these domains.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th InternationalSymposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, COPA2016, held in Madrid, Spain, in April 2016.The 14 revised fullpapers presented together with 1 invited paper were carefully reviewed andselected from 23 submissions and cover topics on theory of conformal prediction; applicationsof conformal prediction; and machine learning.

This book brings together historical notes, reviews of research developments, fresh ideas on how to make VC (Vapnik–Chervonenkis) guarantees tighter, and new technical contributions in the areas of machine learning, statistical inference, classification, algorithmic statistics, and pattern recognition.

This volume contains the papers presented at the 21st International Conf- ence on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT 2010), which was held in Canberra, Australia, October 6–8, 2010. The conference was co-located with the 13th - ternational Conference on Discovery Science (DS 2010) and with the Machine Learning Summer School, which was held just before ALT 2010. The tech- cal program of ALT 2010, contained 26 papers selected from 44 submissions and ?ve invited talks. The invited talks were presented in joint sessions of both conferences. ALT 2010 was dedicated to the theoretical foundations of machine learning and took place on the campus of the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. ALT provides a forum for high-quality talks with a strong theore- cal background and scienti?c interchange in areas such as inductive inference, universal prediction, teaching models, grammatical inference, formal languages, inductive logic programming, query learning, complexity of learning, on-line learning and relative loss bounds, semi-supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering,activelearning,statisticallearning,supportvectormachines,Vapnik- Chervonenkisdimension,probablyapproximatelycorrectlearning,Bayesianand causal networks, boosting and bagging, information-based methods, minimum descriptionlength,Kolmogorovcomplexity,kernels,graphlearning,decisiontree methods, Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning, and real-world - plications of algorithmic learning theory. DS 2010 was the 13th International Conference on Discovery Science and focused on the development and analysis of methods for intelligent data an- ysis, knowledge discovery and machine learning, as well as their application to scienti?c knowledge discovery. As is the tradition, it wasco-located and held in parallel with Algorithmic Learning Theory.

This book honours the outstanding contributions of Vladimir Vapnik, a rare example of a scientist for whom the following statements hold true simultaneously: his work led to the inception of a new field of research, the theory of statistical learning and empirical inference; he has lived to see the field blossom; and he is still as active as ever. He started analyzing learning algorithms in the 1960s and he invented the first version of the generalized portrait algorithm. He later developed one of the most successful methods in machine learning, the support vector machine (SVM) – more than just an algorithm, this was a new approach to learning problems, pioneering the use of functional analysis and convex optimization in machine learning. Part I of this book contains three chapters describing and witnessing some of Vladimir Vapnik's contributions to science. In the first chapter, Léon Bottou discusses the seminal paper published in 1968 by Vapnik and Chervonenkis that lay the foundations of statistical learning theory, and the second chapter is an English-language translation of that original paper. In the third chapter, Alexey Chervonenkis presents a first-hand account of the early history of SVMs and valuable insights into the first steps in the development of the SVM in the framework of the generalised portrait method. The remaining chapters, by leading scientists in domains such as statistics, theoretical computer science, and mathematics, address substantial topics in the theory and practice of statistical learning theory, including SVMs and other kernel-based methods, boosting, PAC-Bayesian theory, online and transductive learning, loss functions, learnable function classes, notions of complexity for function classes, multitask learning, and hypothesis selection.These contributions include historical and context notes, short surveys, and comments on future research directions. This book will be of interest to researchers, engineers, and graduate students engaged with all aspects of statistical learning.