Wireless Foresight

Bo Karlson is Wireless@KTH's director of external relations and general manager. He was the manager of the Wireless Foresight project. Karlson holds a Ph.D. in industrial management from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). Before joining Wireless@KTH, he was assistant professor in the Department for Industrial Economics and Management at KTH. His areas of expertise include project management. Organizational theory, business models, industrial development, and research methodology.Aurelian Bria is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in the Department of Signals, Sensors and Systems at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm. He received his M.Sc. degree in electrical engineering from the Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania, in 1989. In autumn 2000 he joined the Swedish strategic research program Personal computing and Communication (PCC), starting his research in the field of wireless infrastructure.Peter Lönnquist holds an M.Sc. degree in psychology and in 2001 he became a Ph.D. student at the Swedish Graduate School for Human-Machine Interaction. Formerly a member of the Human-Computer Interaction and Language Engineering Laboratory at the Swedish Institute of Computer Science (SICS), he now does research in the design and evaluation of ubiquitous service environments and “the disappearing computer” in the FUSE group at the Department of Computer and Systems Sciences of the IT-University in Kista.Cristian Norlin holds an M.A. in interaction design from the Royal College of Art in London. He also holds a B.Sc. in multimedia education and technology from Stockholm University. Based in Stockholm, he is working as a consultant focusing on human-computer interaction in areas of concept development, interface design for digital technologies and products, and user-centered development processes.Jonas Lind is a researcher at the center for Information and Communications Research (CIC) at Stockholm School of Economics, where his research focus is structural changes during the life cycle of the IT and telecom industry. Before rejoining academia, he was a strategy consultant in an internet consulting firm and a senior advisor at Telia headquarters. Lind holds an M.Sc. in engineering and an Econ. Lic. Degree in business administration.

"The book provides good food for thought and should prove inspiring for anyone in the industry…"(IEE  Communications Engineer, February 2004)

• Preface xiii1 Introduction 1The Wireless Industry at a Crossroads 1Be Prepared for 2015 4Scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015 4Challenges for the Future 6Creating Scenarios 6Guide to the Book 7Part I Scenarios 92 Wireless Explosion—Creative Destruction 11A Sunny Berlin Day in 2015 14The Wireless Scene in 2015 16Rapidly Growing Industry 16Industry Fragmentation—Market Leaders Losing Hegemony 17Debt-Burdened Operators Losing Market Dominance 18Telco Equipment Vendors Lose to Datacom Attackers 19Terminal Vendors Attacked from NICs and DatacomIndustry Vendors 20Active Users Driving Development and Undermining Copyright 21A Mobile Lifestyle with Increasing Travel 22An Explosion of Services and Applications 22Spectrum—Abundant Release for Unlicensed Bands 24No Real Problems with Integrity, Privacy, and Security 24Fast Development in China and Other NICs 25Batteries and Complexity Management No Showstoppers 25Wireless Technology in 2015 26A World with Many Different Wireless Systems 26An Abundance of Services with Various QoS 28Standardization Has Increased 283 Slow Motion 29Ordinary Life in Stockholm and Business Life in Shanghai 32A Day in the Life of an Ordinary Swede 32A Business Day of a Mobile Professional in 2015 33The Wireless Scene in 2015 35Economic Recession and 3G Fiasco 35Health Problems from Radiation 36Security a Problem Still Waiting to Be Solved 37The Mobile Lifestyle Loses Ground 38No Service Explosion 39Wireless Telecommunication Is a Mature Industry 40The Big NICs Catching up after a Slow Start 42Spectrum Shortage Not a Big Problem 43Power Consumption and Complexity Management as Technical Limitations 44Wireless Technology in 2015 45Still Mostly Second-Generation Wireless Networks 45Simple and Low-Radiating Terminals 46Few and Basic Services 474 Rediscovering Harmony 49A Weekday Morning in a Small Scandinavian Village 52The Wireless Scene in 2015 54A Sustainable Society in Balance with Itself 54The Backlash for Marketing and Commercial Media 56Market Segments Driving the Development 57Less but More Travel 59A Few Clouds in the Sky 60The Industry Dilemma: Refocus or Die! 60Peer-to-Peer Applications and Services a Hit 62Content IPR Still Unresolved 64Wireless Technology in 2015 64Many Local and Few Global Wireless Systems 64Simple Services 65Standards 655 Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 67Early April Morning, Green Haven Gated Community, New York, US 70The Wireless Scene in 2015 73Moguls and Governments 73Security Problems of the 2000s Solved 74Moguls in Control 76Slow Development in the NICs 77Incumbent Telecom Players Keep Control of the Market 773G According to Plan 80Applications and Services Focus on Convenience for the User 80No Free Airwaves 81Somewhat of a Complex World 81Wireless Technology in 2015 82Few Different Systems 82Global Networks 82Wireless and Wired Terminals 83Quality of Service 83Few Services but Sophisticated and Popular Services 83Part II Drivers of Development and Technological Implications 856 Trends and Fundamental Drivers 87Fourteen Trends Shaping the Scenarios 88Scenario Abbreviations 88Trend 1: Development Will Be More User Driven 88Trend 2: User Mobility Will Increase 89Trend 3: The Service and Application Market Will Grow 90Trend 4: User Security, Integrity, and Privacy Will Become More Important 91Trend 5: Real or Perceived Health Problems Due to Radiation Will Become More Important 92Trend 6: Environmental Issues Will Become More Important 93Trend 7: Spectrum Will Become an Increasingly Scarce Resource 94Trend 8: The Wireless Industry Will Grow 95Trend 9: The Big NICs Will Continue Their Positive Development 96Trend 10: Market Concentration in the Wireless Industry Will Change 96Trend 11: The Fight for Market Dominance in the Wireless Industry Will Intensify 97Trend 12: Short Terminal Usage Time and Complexity Management Will Become Increasingly Important Problems 98Trend 13: 3G Will Be Implemented 99Trend 14: Protecting IPR on Content Will Become Increasingly Difficult 100Fundamental Drivers 101Technology Drivers 101Socioeconomic and Political Drivers 104Business and Industry Drivers 105Users, Values, and Attitude Drivers 107Theories Supporting Fundamental Drivers 108Exponential Growth 108Microprocessor and Other Growth Paths 109Exponentially Falling Prices and the Experience Curve 110Network Effects I (Metcalfe’s Law) 110Network Effects II (Reed’s Law) 110The S-curve and the Product Life Cycle 111Technology and Market Forces Driving Industry Life Cycles 111Disruptive Innovations 112Architectural Shifts in IT and Other Industries 113Empirical Support for Postmaterialistic Value Shift 1147 Technological Conclusions from Scenarios 117System Technology in 2015 118The Wireless Infrastructure Will Be Heterogeneous 118Efficient and Very High Rate Air Interfaces Will Exist 118Traffic Will Be IP Based and Networks Will Be Transparent 119Much of the Access Infrastructure Will Be Ad Hoc Deployed 119Cost per Transmitted Bit Will Be Very Small 119No Harmful Radiation from Base Stations 120Decreased Power Consumption in the Wireless Systems 120Mobile Terminals in 2015 120Terminals Will Have a Wide Range of Shapes and Capabilities 120Wireless Terminals Will Be Cheap, Very Small, and Modularized 121Usage Time without Charging Batteries Will Be Very Long 121User Interfaces Will Be Highly Developed and Advanced 121M2M Will Be Everywhere 122Wireless Devices Will Be Harmless to People and the Environment 122Mobile Services in 2015 122Wireless Services Will Become a Commodity 123Services Will Be Independent of Infrastructure and Terminals 123Telepresence and Emotional Communication Will Be Available 123Content Will Be Personalized According to User Demand and Location 124Global Roaming and Seamless Services Will Be Possible 124Broadband Services Will Be Available for All Transportation Systems 124The End User Will Be Always Best Connected 124Powerful Computers Will Be Everywhere 125Very High Levels of Security Will Be Provided 125Part III Challenges for the Future 1278 Challenges for Technical Research 129Low-Cost Infrastructure and Services 129Seamless Mobility 132New and Advanced Services 134Usability and Human–Machine Interface 135Health and Environment 136A Need for Cross-Disciplinary Research 1379 Challenges for the Wireless Industry 139Introduction 139The Challenges 139Threat from Disruptive Market Change 139Speed up the Process of Spectrum Release 1403G and the Telco Debt Threat 141Complexity Management 141Radiation a Problem, Real or Perceived 142Better Batteries in Wireless Devices 142Usability and the User in Focus 142Cheaper Infrastructure and Viable Business Models 143A Phone for Everyone 143All Industries Mature 14310 Challenges for Key Regions 145US 146An Immature Market for Mobile Services Waiting to Catch Up 146Fragmented Operator Industry Being Consolidated 147Multiple Cellular Network Standards 148WLAN: A Market Growing Rapidly 148Rather Weak Telco Vendor Industry 149Poor Coverage 150Lack of Spectrum Leading to Limited Capacity 150The Threat of Terrorism and Crime 151Europe 152The GSM World Leader 152Problems with Seamless Mobile Access 153Telecom Debt Crisis 153Strong in Telecom, Weak in Datacom 154Health and the Environment Taken Seriously 154Stagnation and Overregulated Economies 154China 155An Opaque and Overregulated Economy 156Political Instability 156Risks of Complacency 156Challenges for the Chinese Wireless Industry 157Risks and Opportunities with Chinese 3G Standard Wars 158Japan and South Korea 158Leading the Way into the Wireless Future 159Oligopoly in the Operator Industry 160Multiple Standards for 2.5G and 3G 160A Slow Start for 3G 161A Saturated Voice Market 1613G Terminals Expensive to Subsidize 1624G Already 162No Major Infrastructure Vendors from Japan and Korea 162The Japanese Recession 163Political Uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula 163Part IV Moving into the Future with Scenarios 16511 Scenario Thinking and Scenario Making 167Logics of Scenario Creation 167Our Approach: Trends 168Driving Forces: What Do We Care About? 169Fundamental Drivers: What Do We Know? 169Critical Uncertainties: What Do We Not Know? 170Making Our Scenarios 170Creating the Scenarios and Key Research Issues 171Weak Signals and Provocative Questions 172Information and Feedback 173Commissioned Studies 174Other Studies about the Future 174The PCC Research Program 174The WWRF Book of Visions 175Swedish Technology Foresight 176Beyond Mobile 177Other Scenarios 17712 Summary and Concluding Remarks 179The Book in Brief 179Wireless Explosion—Creative Destruction 180Slow Motion 182Rediscovering Harmony 184Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 187Trends and Fundamental Drivers 189Technological Conclusions from the Scenarios 191Challenges for Research, Industry, and Key Regions 192Moving into the Future 199Dear Reader in 2015 201Appendixes 203Appendix A User Segments 205Moklofs 205Yupplots 206Elders 207Mobile Professionals 207Industrial Users 208Appendix B Wireless Foresight at Wireless@KTH 209The Wireless Foresight Project 209Wireless@KTH and the Vision-Driven Research Approach 210Glossary 211References 215Author Biographies 219Index 221