Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate - Böcker

Ozone depletion in the stratosphere and increases in greenhouse gases in the troposphere are both subjects of growing concern--even alarm--among scientists, policymakers, and the public. At the same time, recent data show that these atmospheric developments are interconnected and in turn profoundly affect climatic conditions. This volume presents the most up-to-date data and theories available on ozone depletion, greenhouse gases, and climatic change. These questions and more are addressed: What is the current understanding of the processes that destroy ozone in the atmosphere? What role do greenhouse gases play in ozone depletion?

This book presents working principles for assessing the relative importance of anthropogenic emission sources that contribute to haze in U.S. national parks and wilderness areas and discusses various alternative source control methods. Haze in the Grand Canyon evaluates and recommends strategies for improving critical scientific and technical gaps in the information and databases on haze. It examines such topics as methods for determining individual source contributions, regional and seasonal factors that affect haze, strategies for improving air quality models, the interactive role of photochemical exodants, and scientific and technological considerations in choosing emission control measures.

Almost half the U.S. population lives along the coast. In another 20 years this population is expected to more than double in size. The unique weather and climate of the coastal zone, circulating pollutants, altering storms, changing temperature, and moving coastal currents affect air pollution and disaster preparedness, ocean pollution, and safeguarding near-shore ecosystems. Activities in commerce, industry, transportation, freshwater supply, safety, recreation, and national defense also are affected. The research community engaged in studies of coastal meteorology in recent years has made significant advancements in describing and prediciting atmospheric properties along coasts. Coastal Meteorology reviews this progess and recommends research that would increase the value and application of what is known today.

This book investigates and analyzes several disturbing trends in government support for space physics research over the past decade. The authors identify funding and management problems that thwart cost efficiency within this discipline, and suggest possible solutions. The volume also has broader implications for anyone engaged in research or in the funding and organizing of space physics research.

The 1997 Conference on the World Climate Research Programme to the Third Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change concluded that the global capacity to observe the Earth's climate system is inadequate and is deteriorating worldwide. As a result, the chair of the subcommittee of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requested a National Research Council study to assess the current status of the climate observing capabilities of the United States. This report focuses on existing observing systems for detection and attribution of climate change, with special emphasis on those systems with long time series.

Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research.This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.

A major objective of the International Space Station is learning how to cope with the inherent risks of human spaceflight--how to live and work in space for extended periods. The construction of the station itself provides the first opportunity for doing so. Prominent among the challenges associated with ISS construction is the large amount of time that astronauts will be spending doing extravehicular activity (EVA), or "space walks." EVAs from the space shuttle have been extraordinarily successful, most notably the on-orbit repair of the Hubble Space Telescope. But the number of hours of EVA for ISS construction exceeds that of the Hubble repair mission by orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the ISS orbit has nearly twice the inclination to Earth's equator as Hubble's orbit, so it spends part of every 90-minute circumnavigation at high latitudes, where Earth's magnetic field is less effective at shielding impinging radiation. This means that astronauts sweeping through these regions will be considerably more vulnerable to dangerous doses of energetic particles from a sudden solar eruption.Radiation and the International Space Station estimates that the likelihood of having a potentially dangerous solar event during an EVA is indeed very high. This report recommends steps that can be taken immediately, and over the next several years, to provide adequate warning so that the astronauts can be directed to take protective cover inside the ISS or shuttle. The near-term actions include programmatic and operational ways to take advantage of the multiagency assets that currently monitor and forecast space weather, and ways to improve the in situ measurements and the predictive power of current models.

An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases." The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979.The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing: * how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades, * whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and * whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature.This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements.

This workshop report examines the capability of the forecast system to efficiently transfer weather and climate research findings into improved operational forecast capabilities. It looks in particular at the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Weather Service and environmental observational satellite programs. Using these examples, the report identifies several shortcomings in the capability to transition from research to operations. Successful transitions from R&D to operational implementation requires (1) understanding of the importance (and risks) of the transition, (2) development and maintenance of appropriate transition plans, (3) adequate resource provision, and (4) continuous feedback (in both directions) between the R&D and operational activities.

Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.

Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages.The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps.Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future describes the types of products that should be provided through a climate service; outlines the roles of the public, private, and academic sectors in a climate service; describe fundamental principles that should be followed in the provision of climate services; and describes potential audiences and providers of climate services.

The Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) of the National Research Council (NRC) is engaged in studying the priorities and future strategies for hydrologic science. In order to involve a broad community representation, COHS is organizing workshops on priority topics in hydrologic science. These efforts will culminate in reports from the NRC on the individual workshops as well as a synthesis report on strategic directions in hydrologic science. The first workshop-Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems-was held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, September 21-22, 2000. Fourteen technical presentations covered basic research and understanding, model formulations and behavior, observing strategies, and transition to operational predictions.

In 2001, the U.S. Global Change Research Program produced the report A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle. This report was designed to represent a research strategy and scientific plan for investigating the global water cycle, and its interactions with climate and for developing an enhanced understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the availability and biogeochemistry of water resources. The USGCRP managers are currently considering how to move forward with implementation of this ambitious, broad, and potentially very fruitful plan on an interagency basis, and it requested that the National Research Council (NRC) advise them in this regard. This report, Review of USGCRP Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle, provides comments on the water cycle science plan as related to its recommended scientific initiatives and goals, and it provides comments on the usefulness of the water cycle science plan to the USGCRP agencies in developing a coordinated global water cycle implementation plan.

Weather radar is a vital instrument for observing the atmosphere to help provide weather forecasts and issue weather warnings to the public. The current Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system provides Doppler radar coverage to most regions of the United States (NRC, 1995). This network was designed in the mid 1980s and deployed in the 1990s as part of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization (NRC, 1999). Since the initial design phase of the NEXRAD program, considerable advances have been made in radar technologies and in the use of weather radar for monitoring and prediction. The development of new technologies provides the motivation for appraising the status of the current weather radar system and identifying the most promising approaches for the development of its eventual replacement. The charge to the committee was to determine the state of knowledge regarding ground-based weather surveillance radar technology and identify the most promising approaches for the design of the replacement for the present Doppler Weather Radar. This report presents a first look at potential approaches for future upgrades to or replacements of the current weather radar system.The need, and schedule, for replacing the current system has not been established, but the committee used the briefings and deliberations to assess how the current system satisfies the current and emerging needs of the operational and research communities and identified potential system upgrades for providing improved weather forecasts and warnings. The time scale for any total replacement of the system (20- to 30-year time horizon) precluded detailed investigation of the designs and cost structures associated with any new weather radar system. The committee instead noted technologies that could provide improvements over the capabilities of the evolving NEXRAD system and recommends more detailed investigation and evaluation of several of these technologies. In the course of its deliberations, the committee developed a sense that the processes by which the eventual replacement radar system is developed and deployed could be as significant as the specific technologies adopted. Consequently, some of the committee's recommendations deal with such procedural issues.

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a toxic air pollutant produced largely from vehicle emissions. Breathing CO at high concentrations leads to reduced oxygen transport by hemoglobin, which has health effects that include impaired reaction timing, headaches, lightheadedness, nausea, vomiting, weakness, clouding of consciousness, coma, and, at high enough concentrations and long enough exposure, death. In recognition of those health effects, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as directed by the Clean Air Act, established the health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for CO in 1971. Most areas that were previously designated as "nonattainment" areas have come into compliance with the NAAQS for CO, but some locations still have difficulty in attaining the CO standards. Those locations tend to have topographical or meteorological characteristics that exacerbate pollution. In view of the challenges posed for some areas to attain compliance with the NAAQS for CO, congress asked the National Research Council to investigate the problem of CO in areas with meteorological and topographical problems. This interim report deals specifically with Fairbanks, Alaska.Fairbanks was chosen as a case study because its meteorological and topographical characteristics make it susceptible to severe winter inversions that trap CO and other pollutants at ground level.

The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate change.

Accurate prediction of convective storms 2- to 6-hours in advance is critical to selecting air traffic routes with minimal weather delays or diversions. This report summarizes the discussions of a workshop to explore present convective weather forecasting skill, strategies for improving that skill, ways to verify forecasts are accurate, and how to make forecasts useful to air traffic controllers, airline dispatchers, and pilots.

This report addresses the transition of research satellites, instruments, and calculations into operational service for accurately observing and predicting the Eartha (TM)s environment. These transitions, which take place in large part between NASA and NOAA, are important for maintaining the health, safety, and prosperity of the nation, and for achieving the vision of an Earth Information System in which quantitative information about the complete Earth system is readily available to myriad users. Many transitions have been ad hoc, sometimes taking several years or even decades to occur, and others have encountered roadblocksa "lack of long-range planning, resources, institutional or cultural differences, for instancea "and never reached fruition. Satellite Observations of Eartha (TM)s Environment recommends new structures and methods that will allow seamless transitions from research to practice.

The regulation of carbon monoxide has been one of the great success stories in air pollution control. While more than 90 percent of the locations with carbon monoxide monitors were in violation in 1971, today the number of monitors showing violations has fallen to only a few, on a small number of days and mainly in areas with unique meteorological and topographical conditions.

For many years, communities have prepared themselves to deal with accidental atmospheric releases from industrial sites, energy facilities, and vehicles transporting hazardous materials. Today, these communities must also worry about the terrorist threat of the intentional use of chemical, biological, and nuclear (C/B/N) agents. Because of this threat, the ability to predict and track the dispersal of harmful agents has become a critical element of terrorism planning and response. Our nationA-A'A1/2s capacity to respond to atmospheric C/B/N events stands, like a three legged stool, on the strength of three interconnected elements: 1) dispersion models that predict the path and spread of the hazardous agent; 2) observations of the hazardous plume itself and of local meteorological conditions, which provide critical input for the models; and 3) interaction with emergency responders who use the information provided by the models.As part of the National Academies continuing focus on issues of homeland security, Tracking and Predicting the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases examines our nationA-A'A1/2s current capabilities in these three areas and provides recommendations for strengthening them.

Managing the nationa (TM)s air quality is a complex undertaking, involving tens of thousands of people in regulating thousands of pollution sources. The authors identify what has worked and what has not, and they offer wide-ranging recommendations for setting future priorities, making difficult choices, and increasing innovation. This new book explores how to better integrate scientific advances and new technologies into the air quality management system. The volume reviews the three-decade history of governmental efforts toward cleaner air, discussing how air quality standards are set and results measured, the design and implementation of control strategies, regulatory processes and procedures, special issues with mobile pollution sources, and more. The book looks at efforts to spur social and behavioral changes that affect air quality, the effectiveness of market-based instruments for air quality regulation, and many other aspects of the issue. Rich in technical detail, this book will be of interest to all those engaged in air quality management: scientists, engineers, industrial managers, law makers, regulators, health officials, clean-air advocates, and concerned citizens.

The weather on planet Earth is a vital and sometimes fatal force in human affairs. Efforts to control or reduce the harmful impacts of weather go back far in time. In this, the latest National Academiesa (TM) assessment of weather modification, the committee was asked to assess the ability of current and proposed weather modification capabilities to provide beneficial impacts on water resource management and weather hazard mitigation. It examines new technologies, reviews advances in numerical modeling on the cloud and mesoscale, and considers how improvements in computer capabilities might be applied to weather modification. Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research examines the status of the science underlying weather modification in the United States. It calls for a coordinated national research program to answer fundamental questions about basic atmospheric processes and to address other issues that are impeding progress in weather modification.

During the past decade, scientists have learned much about the complex natural processes that influence climate variability and change, and our ability to model climate has increased significantly. We also have begun to better identify those parts of the climate system that are particularly important and not well understood and that therefore limit our ability to project the future evolution of Eartha (TM)s climate. One of these critical areas is our understanding of the role of feedbacks in the climate system and their role in determining climate sensitivity. Feedbacks are processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the systema (TM)s response to changed forcings. This study looks at what is known and not known about climate change feedbacks and seeks to identify the feedback processes most in need of improved understanding. It identifies key observations needed to monitor and understand climate feedbacks, discusses ways to evaluate progress in understanding climate feedbacks, recommends ways to improve climate modeling and analysis for climate feedbacks research, and identifies priority areas for research.

Estimates of groundwater recharge and discharge rates are needed at many different scales for many different purposes. These include such tasks as evaluating landslide risks, managing groundwater resources, locating nuclear waste repositories, and estimating global budgets of water and greenhouse gasses. Groundwater Fluxes Across Interfaces focuses on scientific challenges in (1) the spatial and temporal variability of recharge and discharge, (2) how information at one scale can be used at another, and (3) the effects of groundwater on climate and vice versa.