Poverty of Historicism

Karl Popper (1902-94) philosopher, born in Vienna. One of the most influential and controversial thinkers of the 20th century.

'Probably the only book published this year which will outlive this century.' - Arthur Koestler'It is good to have this brilliant book at last available in English.' - The Times'This is one of the three or four most important books of the methodology of the social sciences to appear since the war.' - New Statesman'Popper's work is of far greater than mere academic value; it has an immediate and manifest bearing on the political decisions that everyone has to make.' - The Listener'Should be read even by those who will not agree with it.' - Tribune'This is the theoretical companion to the better-known Open Society and Its Enemies. It puts paid to all attempts at futurology by pointing out that the future depends on new knowledge which by definition we do not have today.' - Samuel Brittan, The Week, 2nd April 2005

• Historical Note Preface Introduction I The Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism 1 Generalization 2 Experiment 3 Novelty 4 Complexity 5 Inexactitude of Prediction 6 Objectivity and Valuation 7 Holism 8 Intuitive Understanding 9 Quantitative Methods 10 Essentialism versus Nominalism II The Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism 11 Comparison with Astronomy. Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecasts 12 The Observational Basis 13 Social Dynamics 14 Historical Laws 15 Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering 16 The Theory of Historical Development 17 Interpreting versus Planning Social Change 18 Conclusion of the Analysis III Criticism of the Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines 19 Practical Aims of this Criticism 20 The Technological Approach to Sociology 21 Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering 22 The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism 23 Criticism of Holism 24 The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments 25 The Variability of Experimental Conditions 26 Are Generalizations Confined to Periods? IV Criticism of the Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines 27 Is there a Law of Evolution? Laws and Trends 28 The Method of Reduction. Causal Explanation. Prediction and Prophecy 29 The Unity of Method 30 Theoretical and Historical Sciences 31 Situational Logic in History. Historical Interpretation 32 The Institutional Theory of Progress 33 Conclusion. The Emotional Appeal of Historicism Index.