International Series on Actuarial Science – serie

This text gives budding actuaries and financial analysts a foundation in multiple regression and time series. They will learn about these statistical techniques using data on the demand for insurance, lottery sales, foreign exchange rates, and other applications. Although no specific knowledge of risk management or finance is presumed, the approach introduces applications in which statistical techniques can be used to analyze real data of interest. In addition to the fundamentals, this book describes several advanced statistical topics that are particularly relevant to actuarial and financial practice, including the analysis of longitudinal, two-part (frequency/severity), and fat-tailed data. Datasets with detailed descriptions, sample statistical software scripts in 'R' and 'SAS', and tips on writing a statistical report, including sample projects, can be found on the book's Web site: http://research.bus.wisc.edu/RegActuaries.

This text gives budding actuaries and financial analysts a foundation in multiple regression and time series. They will learn about these statistical techniques using data on the demand for insurance, lottery sales, foreign exchange rates, and other applications. Although no specific knowledge of risk management or finance is presumed, the approach introduces applications in which statistical techniques can be used to analyze real data of interest. In addition to the fundamentals, this book describes several advanced statistical topics that are particularly relevant to actuarial and financial practice, including the analysis of longitudinal, two-part (frequency/severity), and fat-tailed data. Datasets with detailed descriptions, sample statistical software scripts in 'R' and 'SAS', and tips on writing a statistical report, including sample projects, can be found on the book's Web site: http://research.bus.wisc.edu/RegActuaries.

Focusing on what actuaries need in practice, this introductory account provides readers with essential tools for handling complex problems and explains how simulation models can be created, used and re-used (with modifications) in related situations. The book begins by outlining the basic tools of modelling and simulation, including a discussion of the Monte Carlo method and its use. Part II deals with general insurance and Part III with life insurance and financial risk. Algorithms that can be implemented on any programming platform are spread throughout and a program library written in R is included. Numerous figures and experiments with R-code illustrate the text. The author's non-technical approach is ideal for graduate students, the only prerequisites being introductory courses in calculus and linear algebra, probability and statistics. The book will also be of value to actuaries and other analysts in the industry looking to update their skills.

Knowledge of risk models and the assessment of risk is a fundamental part of the training of actuaries and all who are involved in financial, pensions and insurance mathematics. This book provides students and others with a firm foundation in a wide range of statistical and probabilistic methods for the modelling of risk, including short-term risk modelling, model-based pricing, risk-sharing, ruin theory and credibility. It covers much of the international syllabuses for professional actuarial examinations in risk models, but goes into further depth, with worked examples, exercises and detailed case studies. The authors also use the statistical package R to demonstrate how simple code and functions can be used profitably in an actuarial context. The authors' engaging and pragmatic approach, balancing rigour and intuition and developed over many years of teaching the subject, makes this book ideal for self-study or for students taking courses in risk modelling.

In classical life insurance mathematics the obligations of the insurance company towards the policy holders were calculated on artificial conservative assumptions on mortality and interest rates. However, this approach is being superseded by developments in international accounting and solvency standards coupled with other advances enabling a market-based valuation of risk, i.e., its price if traded in a free market. The book describes these approaches, and is the first to explain them in conjunction with more traditional methods. The various chapters address specific aspects of market-based valuation. The exposition integrates methods and results from financial and insurance mathematics, and is based on the entries in a life insurance company's market accounting scheme. The book will be of great interest and use to students and practitioners who need an introduction to this area, and who seek a practical yet sound guide to life insurance accounting and product development.

This is the only book actuaries need to understand generalized linear models (GLMs) for insurance applications. GLMs are used in the insurance industry to support critical decisions. Until now, no text has introduced GLMs in this context or addressed the problems specific to insurance data. Using insurance data sets, this practical, rigorous book treats GLMs, covers all standard exponential family distributions, extends the methodology to correlated data structures, and discusses recent developments which go beyond the GLM. The issues in the book are specific to insurance data, such as model selection in the presence of large data sets and the handling of varying exposure times. Exercises and data-based practicals help readers to consolidate their skills, with solutions and data sets given on the companion website. Although the book is package-independent, SAS code and output examples feature in an appendix and on the website. In addition, R code and output for all the examples are provided on the website.

This well-balanced introduction to enterprise risk management integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches and motivates key mathematical and statistical methods with abundant real-world cases - both successes and failures. Worked examples and end-of-chapter exercises support readers in consolidating what they learn. The mathematical level, which is suitable for graduate and senior undergraduate students in quantitative programs, is pitched to give readers a solid understanding of the concepts and principles involved, without diving too deeply into more complex theory. To reveal the connections between different topics, and their relevance to the real world, the presentation has a coherent narrative flow, from risk governance, through risk identification, risk modelling, and risk mitigation, capped off with holistic topics - regulation, behavioural biases, and crisis management - that influence the whole structure of ERM. The result is a text and reference that is ideal for graduate and senior undergraduate students, risk managers in industry, and anyone preparing for ERM actuarial exams.

Actuaries must pass exams, but more than that: they must put knowledge into practice. This coherent book supports the Society of Actuaries' short-term actuarial mathematics syllabus while emphasizing the concepts and practical application of nonlife actuarial models. A class-tested textbook for undergraduate courses in actuarial science, it is also ideal for those approaching their professional exams. Key topics covered include loss modelling, risk and ruin theory, credibility theory and applications, and empirical implementation of loss models. Revised and updated to reflect curriculum changes, this second edition includes two brand new chapters on loss reserving and ratemaking. R replaces Excel as the computation tool used throughout - the featured R code is available on the book's webpage, as are lecture slides. Numerous examples and exercises are provided, with many questions adapted from past Society of Actuaries exams.

This comprehensive yet accessible guide to enterprise risk management for financial institutions contains all the tools needed to build and maintain an ERM framework. It discusses the internal and external contexts within which risk management must be carried out, and it covers a range of qualitative and quantitative techniques that can be used to identify, model and measure risks. This third edition has been thoroughly revised and updated to reflect new regulations and legislation. It includes additional detail on machine learning, a new section on vine copulas, and significantly expanded information on sustainability. A range of new case studies include Theranos and FTX. Suitable as a course book or for self-study, this book forms part of the core reading for the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' examination in enterprise risk management.

Predictive modeling involves the use of data to forecast future events. It relies on capturing relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences and exploiting this to predict future outcomes. Forecasting future financial events is a core actuarial skill - actuaries routinely apply predictive-modeling techniques in insurance and other risk-management applications. This book is for actuaries and other financial analysts who are developing their expertise in statistics and wish to become familiar with concrete examples of predictive modeling. The book also addresses the needs of more seasoned practising analysts who would like an overview of advanced statistical topics that are particularly relevant in actuarial practice. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes lifelong learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used by analysts to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data.

Predictive modeling uses data to forecast future events. It exploits relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences to predict future outcomes. Forecasting financial events is a core skill that actuaries routinely apply in insurance and other risk-management applications. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes life-long learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data. Volume 2 examines applications of predictive modeling. Where Volume 1 developed the foundations of predictive modeling, Volume 2 explores practical uses for techniques, focusing on property and casualty insurance. Readers are exposed to a variety of techniques in concrete, real-life contexts that demonstrate their value and the overall value of predictive modeling, for seasoned practicing analysts as well as those just starting out.

In this concise yet comprehensive guide to the mathematics of modern portfolio theory the authors discuss mean-variance analysis, factor models, utility theory, stochastic dominance, very long term investing, the capital asset pricing model, risk measures including VAR, coherence, market efficiency, rationality and the modelling of actuarial liabilities. Each topic is clearly explained with assumptions, mathematics, limitations, problems and solutions presented in turn. Joshi's trademark style of clarity and practicality is here brought to classical financial mathematics. The book is suitable for mathematically trained students in actuarial studies, business and economics as well as mathematics and finance, and it can be used for both self-study and as a course text. The authors' experience as both academics and practitioners brings clarity and relevance to the book, whilst ensuring that the limitations of models are highlighted.

Actuaries have access to a wealth of individual data in pension and insurance portfolios, but rarely use its full potential. This book will pave the way, from methods using aggregate counts to modern developments in survival analysis. Based on the fundamental concept of the hazard rate, Part I shows how and why to build statistical models, based on data at the level of the individual persons in a pension scheme or life insurance portfolio. Extensive use is made of the R statistics package. Smooth models, including regression and spline models in one and two dimensions, are covered in depth in Part II. Finally, Part III uses multiple-state models to extend survival models beyond the simple life/death setting, and includes a brief introduction to the modern counting process approach. Practising actuaries will find this book indispensable, and students will find it helpful when preparing for their professional examinations.

This is a comprehensive and accessible reference source that documents the theoretical and practical aspects of all the key deterministic and stochastic reserving methods that have been developed for use in general insurance. Worked examples and mathematical details are included, along with many of the broader topics associated with reserving in practice. The key features of reserving in a range of different contexts in the UK and elsewhere are also covered. The book contains material that will appeal to anyone with an interest in claims reserving. It can be used as a learning resource for actuarial students who are studying the relevant parts of their professional bodies' examinations, as well as by others who are new to the subject. More experienced insurance and other professionals can use the book to refresh or expand their knowledge in any of the wide range of reserving topics covered in the book.

The focus of this book is on the two major areas of risk theory: aggregate claims distributions and ruin theory. For aggregate claims distributions, detailed descriptions are given of recursive techniques that can be used in the individual and collective risk models. For the collective model, the book discusses different classes of counting distribution, and presents recursion schemes for probability functions and moments. For the individual model, the book illustrates the three most commonly applied techniques. Beyond the classical topics in ruin theory, this new edition features an expanded section covering time of ruin problems, Gerber-Shiu functions, and the application of De Vylder approximations. Suitable for a first course in insurance risk theory and extensively classroom tested, the book is accessible to readers with a solid understanding of basic probability. Numerous worked examples are included and each chapter concludes with exercises for which complete solutions are provided.

This comprehensive, yet accessible, guide to enterprise risk management for financial institutions contains all the tools needed to build and maintain an ERM framework. It discusses the internal and external contexts with which risk management must be carried out, and it covers a range of qualitative and quantitative techniques that can be used to identify, model and measure risks. This new edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect new legislation and the creation of the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. It includes new content on Bayesian networks, expanded coverage of Basel III, a revised treatment of operational risk and a fully revised index. Over 100 diagrams are used to illustrate the range of approaches available, and risk management issues are highlighted with numerous case studies. This book also forms part of the core reading for the UK actuarial profession's specialist technical examination in enterprise risk management, ST9.

The substantially updated third edition of the popular Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of actuarial science, for trainee actuaries preparing for professional actuarial examinations, and for life insurance practitioners who wish to increase or update their technical knowledge. The authors provide intuitive explanations alongside mathematical theory, equipping readers to understand the material in sufficient depth to apply it in real-world situations and to adapt their results in a changing insurance environment. Topics include modern actuarial paradigms, such as multiple state models, cash-flow projection methods and option theory, all of which are required for managing the increasingly complex range of contemporary long-term insurance products. Numerous exam-style questions allow readers to prepare for traditional professional actuarial exams, and extensive use of Excel ensures that readers are ready for modern, Excel-based exams and for the actuarial work environment. The Solutions Manual (ISBN 9781108747615), available for separate purchase, provides detailed solutions to the text's exercises.