Longitudinal Research in the Behavioral, Social and Medical Studies – serie

This volume is the product of a course on longitudinal prospective re­ search arranged by the three editors in Arhus, Denmark, in 1978. The course was supported by the Nordisk Kulturfond for young researchers from the Nordic countries, who had planned or had simply involved themselves in longitudinal prospective research projects of various kinds. The twenty-six participants represented a wide range of professions: statisticians, psychologists, psychiatrists, nutritionists, and public health researchers. The teachers came from many countries and represented many disciplines. The course was very successful, especially from the point of view of the quality and investment of the teachers. We felt also that the course met a strong need in this relatively new field of research. Therefore, we asked the teachers to prepare written versions of their lectures so that they could have wider dissemination; they agreed to do so. The present book is composed of these contributions. The first chap­ ter, after outlining some of the problems with traditional strategies in mental health research, goes on to suggest some of the possible preven­ tive applications of longitudinal research methods. Included in Parts II and III are papers on design problems and on the tools of long-term research, such as genetics and classification, biological measurements, epidemiological guidelines, statistical models, disease registers, and de­ velopmental psychology.

Katherine Teilmann Van Dusen and Sarnoff A. Mednick This introduction delineates what we consider to be three of the most important impediments to the advance of knowledge in the field of criminology. The most fundamental need is for more studies of the nature and progress of criminal and delinquent careers. The second need is for more prospective, longitudinal studies of the etiology of crime and delinquency. The third need concerns the lack of interdisciplinary research toward a more integrated understanding of delinquent and criminal behavior. Criminal and Delinquent Careers The birth cohort study by Wolfgang, Figlio and Sellin (1972) was heralded by many (Farrington, 1973; Erickson, 1973; Weis, 1974) as a landmark which allowed researchers to study the course of delinquency without the usual sampling biases that plagued other, cross-sectional research. For the first time, we could get a reasonable picture of when delinquency usually starts, what proportion of the population engages in delinquency, what types of delinquencies they engage in, what proportion continue, and so on. Cross sectional studies do not permit the investigation of careers because cross 1 PROSPECTIVE STUDIES OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 2 sectional sampling includes only portions of careers for many of the individuals sampled. This is just one of the many problems that restricted researchers' ability to study the nature of criminal careers.

That there is diversity in the work and retirement behaviors and at­ titudes of our small-town respondents is obvious. Thus, attempts to legislate broad solutions to problems of Social Security and other factors of most interest to older persons can be assured of having both supporters and detractors among the elderly in rural settings as well as among other age groups. Within the diversity observed, how­ ever, are some results requiring further attention. The relatively positive adjustment to not working of the retired men in the study bodes well for those expecting to leave the work force in the next few years. This positive adjustment mirrors that observed in several other recent studies, of course. Still, those not making positive adjustments must be considered; they will continue to require the attention of various support services so that attempts to solve their problems will be successful. Equally significant is the fact that no clear picture of the work and retirement orientation of these rural men emerged. On the one hand, they were remaining in the labor force slightly longer than men in urban 67 68 LATER LIFE TRANSITIONS samples and the job satisfaction and preferred retirement age for men still working had increased over the decade. On the other hand, the value placed on work had decreased, attitudes toward retirement had become more positive, and the men were more work than non­ work oriented.

Katherine Teilmann Van Dusen and Sarnoff A. Mednick This introduction delineates what we consider to be three of the most important impediments to the advance of knowledge in the field of criminology. The most fundamental need is for more studies of the nature and progress of criminal and delinquent careers. The second need is for more prospective, longitudinal studies of the etiology of crime and delinquency. The third need concerns the lack of interdisciplinary research toward a more integrated understanding of delinquent and criminal behavior. Criminal and Delinquent Careers The birth cohort study by Wolfgang, Figlio and Sellin (1972) was heralded by many (Farrington, 1973; Erickson, 1973; Weis, 1974) as a landmark which allowed researchers to study the course of delinquency without the usual sampling biases that plagued other, cross-sectional research. For the first time, we could get a reasonable picture of when delinquency usually starts, what proportion of the population engages in delinquency, what types of delinquencies they engage in, what proportion continue, and so on. Cross sectional studies do not permit the investigation of careers because cross 1 PROSPECTIVE STUDIES OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 2 sectional sampling includes only portions of careers for many of the individuals sampled. This is just one of the many problems that restricted researchers' ability to study the nature of criminal careers.

This volume is the product of a course on longitudinal prospective re­ search arranged by the three editors in Arhus, Denmark, in 1978. The course was supported by the Nordisk Kulturfond for young researchers from the Nordic countries, who had planned or had simply involved themselves in longitudinal prospective research projects of various kinds. The twenty-six participants represented a wide range of professions: statisticians, psychologists, psychiatrists, nutritionists, and public health researchers. The teachers came from many countries and represented many disciplines. The course was very successful, especially from the point of view of the quality and investment of the teachers. We felt also that the course met a strong need in this relatively new field of research. Therefore, we asked the teachers to prepare written versions of their lectures so that they could have wider dissemination; they agreed to do so. The present book is composed of these contributions. The first chap­ ter, after outlining some of the problems with traditional strategies in mental health research, goes on to suggest some of the possible preven­ tive applications of longitudinal research methods. Included in Parts II and III are papers on design problems and on the tools of long-term research, such as genetics and classification, biological measurements, epidemiological guidelines, statistical models, disease registers, and de­ velopmental psychology.

That there is diversity in the work and retirement behaviors and at­ titudes of our small-town respondents is obvious. Thus, attempts to legislate broad solutions to problems of Social Security and other factors of most interest to older persons can be assured of having both supporters and detractors among the elderly in rural settings as well as among other age groups. Within the diversity observed, how­ ever, are some results requiring further attention. The relatively positive adjustment to not working of the retired men in the study bodes well for those expecting to leave the work force in the next few years. This positive adjustment mirrors that observed in several other recent studies, of course. Still, those not making positive adjustments must be considered; they will continue to require the attention of various support services so that attempts to solve their problems will be successful. Equally significant is the fact that no clear picture of the work and retirement orientation of these rural men emerged. On the one hand, they were remaining in the labor force slightly longer than men in urban 67 68 LATER LIFE TRANSITIONS samples and the job satisfaction and preferred retirement age for men still working had increased over the decade. On the other hand, the value placed on work had decreased, attitudes toward retirement had become more positive, and the men were more work than non­ work oriented.

This book is the product of the efforts of a number of people dating back to 1956, when Professor T. Kemp, then head of the University Institute for Human Genetics in Copenhagen, proposed a study on the importance of x-ray irradiation in pregnant women. Under the guidance of Professors Dyhre Trolle and Preben Plum of the Uni­ versity Hospital in Copenhagen, the investigation was expanded to deal with prenatal and perinatal factors of importance for the development of the infant. The corpus of medical data that resulted from these efforts was collected and organized by Drs. Bengt Zachau-Christiansen and Aage Villumsen. The project's birth cohort included all deliveries that took place at the State University Hospital, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, over a two-year period from 1959 to 1961. As part of the perinatal study, the mothers and children were subjected to regular and thorough medical examinations during pregnancy and through the first year of the child's life. The detailed data from these examinations, as well as information about treatment administered, were systematically collected and coded.