Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world. Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.

• Part I: Setting the scene1. Introduction: Why S2S?2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics4. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approachPart II: Sources of S2S Predictability5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation6. Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections8. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction9. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction10. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the StratospherePart III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting12. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity13. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles14. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation15. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination16. Forecast verification for S2S time scalesPart IV: S2S Applications17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes18. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross19. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities20. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases21. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts22. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales