Perilous Prospects

Anthony H. Cordesman is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program, and director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, a military analyst for ABC News and adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University. He has served in senior positions in the office of the secretary of defense, NATO, and the U.S. Senate.

• 1 INTRODUCTION, 2 MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS SALES, 3 QUANTITATIVE COMPARISONS: COMPARING MILITARY FORCES BY COUNTRY, 4 THE IMPACT OF QUALITATIVE FACTORS AND THE "REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS", 5 POSSIBLE WAR FIGHTING OUTCOMES: A DYNAMIC NET ASSESSMENT. 6 CASE ONE: THE PEACE PROCESS FAILS AND A NEW "INTIFADA" TAKES PLACE, 7 CASE TWO: A SYRIAN GRAB FOR THE GOLAN, 8 CASE THREE: THE COLLAPSE OF THE PEACE PROCESS AND CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND JORDAN, 9 CASE FOUR: A JORDANIAN-SYRIAN ALLIANCE— THE EASTERN FRONT, 10 CASE FIVE: ISLAMIC UPHEAVALEGYPTIAN CRISIS WITH ISRAEL, 11 CASE SIX: A BROAD ISLAMIC UPHEAVALEGYPT, JORDAN, AND SYRIA ARE JOINED BY OTHER ARAB STATES, 12 CASE SEVEN: LIBYAN, IRANIAN, AND IRAQI CONVENTIONAL FORCES, 13 CASE EIGHT: DETERRENCE FAILS—A MAJOR USE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, 14 ANALYTIC AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS, 15 SOURCES AND METHODS