Arms Diffusion

Thomas W. Zarzecki

• List of Tables List of Figures 1. The Global Diffusion of Arms Introduction The Importance of the Spread of Arms Views of Proliferation Emergence of a Diffusion Mindset Overview of the Study 2. The Arms Trade, Proliferation and Diffusion: A Literature Review The Literature in the Arms Trade and Proliferation Single-State Case Studies of Military Producers, Exporters and Importers Multi-State Case Studies Macro Approaches to the Arms Trade The Spread of Arms and the Literature on Diffusion Processes Conclusions 3. Developing Theoretical Models of Arms Diffusion: Why do Arms Diffuse? Model 1. Realpolitik Model 2. Exporting Militarism Model 3. Domestic Political Factors Model 4. Domestic Economic Factors Model 5. Technological Imperative 4. Arms Diffusion and the Nature of Military Innovations What is Military Technological Innovation? Developing a Scheme for Classifying MTIs Arms Diffusion and Technological Generations Criticisms of the Generational Approach Selecting Innovations for Analysis The Resultant Case Selection and time Frame 5. The Diffusion of Arms: Mapping the Empirical Terrain The Basic Patterns of Arms Diffusion The Rate of Arms Diffusion Arms Diffusion: Regional and State-Level Stratification Conclusions 6. Testing models of Arms Diffusion The Diffusion Term in Models 1-4 Independent Variables for Models 1-4 Testing Models 1-4 Testing model 5 Summary of Findings 7. The Future of Arms Diffusion Interpreting the Spread of New Military Technologies Directions for Future Research Conclusions Appendix A: Weapon Systems Designations and Nomenclature Variance Between States Variance Between Arms Categories Variance Between Producers Within States Variance Between Military Branches Within States Idiosyncratic Variance Appendix B: Combat Aircraft Arms Category Generational Development Systems Adopter Lists Diffusion of Generation 3 Combat Aircraft Diffusion of Generation 4 Combat Aircraft Appendix C: Attack Helicopters Arms Category Generational Development Systems Adopter Lists Diffusion of Generation 1 Attack Helicopters Diffusion of Generation 2 Attack Helicopters Appendix D: Main Battle Tanks Arms Category Systems Adopter Lists Diffusion of Generation 1 Point-Defense SAMs Appendix G: Surface-to-Air Missiles III: Shoulder-Fired SAMs Arms Category Generational Development Systems Adopter Lists Diffusion of Generation 1 Shoulder-Fired SAMs Diffusion of Generation 2 Shoulder-Fired SAMs Appendix H: Anti-Tank Guided Missiles Arms Category Generational Development Systems Adopter Lists Diffusion of Generation 1 Anti-Tank Guided Missiles Diffusion of Generation 2 Anti-Tank Guided Missiles Appendix I: State Diffusion Scores by Region Bibliography