William Webb is Head of R&D and Senior Technologist, Ofcom, UK. William is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, and has worked in the wireless communications industry since his graduation in 1989. William has published over 60 papers in various journals, chairs some six conferences a year, including the 3GSM Congress and the BlueTooth Congress, and speaks at many more.

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• Preface xvAcknowledgements xviiAbout the Author xix1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business 12 Previous Predictions have been Accurate 32.1 Introduction 32.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate 32.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005 62.4 How Well did we do? 72.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010 82.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now? 92.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future 93 How to put Together a Forecast 114 The Current Position 134.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position 134.2 Mobile Communications 144.2.1 Cellular 14Introduction to Cellular [1–3] 142G Cellular 153G Cellular 17WiMax for Mobile Applications 18‘4G’ Cellular 19Convergent Technologies 21Summary for Cellular 224.2.2 Private Mobile Radio 22Introduction 22Analogue Communications 23Digital Communications 234.2.3 Mobile Mesh Systems 244.2.4 Cognitive Radio 254.3 Fixed wireless 274.3.1 Introduction 274.3.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless 274.3.3 Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless 284.3.4 Likely Success of Fixed Wireless 284.3.5 Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering 294.3.6 The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless 294.4 Short-range Devices 304.4.1 Introduction 304.4.2 Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices 314.4.3 Ultra Wideband (UWB) 324.4.4 Wireless LANs [5] 334.4.5 BlueTooth [6] 344.4.6 Dect 354.4.7 Zigbee 354.4.8 RFIDs 364.4.9 The Prognosis for Short-range Devices 364.5 Core Networks 374.6 Broadcasting 394.6.1 Conventional Broadcasting 394.6.2 Mobile Broadcasting 414.7 Industry Structure 424.8 Summary 424.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM 43OFDM is Increasingly in Favour 43A Quick Introduction to OFDM 43Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM 44Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable 45Problems Specific to OFDM 45Specific Applications 45So is OFDM the New ‘Technology of Choice’? 48References 485 End User Demand 495.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical 495.2 How People React to New Concepts 495.3 Changing Patterns of Spending 515.4 What they have Today 535.5 What they want Now 535.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns 555.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem 565.8 In Summary 576 Technology Progress 596.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast 596.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws 606.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws 626.3.1 Moore’s Law 626.3.2 Metcalfe’s Law 636.3.3 Gilder’s Law 646.3.4 Cooper’s Law 656.3.5 Edholm’s Law 676.3.6 Growth in Disk Size 686.3.7 Goodhart’s Law 706.3.8 Laws or Trends? 706.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’ 706.4.1 Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission 71Software-defined Radio 71Smart Antennas 71Wireless Mesh Networking 72Interference Cancellation 73Cognitive Radio 746.4.2 Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul 746.4.3 Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals 766.4.4 Technologies Leading to ‘Artificial Intelligence’ 846.4.5 Compression Technologies 856.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs 856.6 Implications for the Future 85References 867 Major World Events 877.1 Introduction 877.2 World Events 877.3 Events in Related Industries 897.4 Summary 907.5 The Next Chapters 908 Future Military Wireless Solutions 91Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding8.1 Introduction 918.2 Operational Context 928.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications 938.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems 948.4.1 Impact of Unmanned Vehicles 948.4.2 Impact of High-Altitude Platforms (HAPs) 958.4.3 Impact of Future Infantry Soldier Technology 968.4.4 Impact of Wireless Sensor Networks 968.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems 978.5.1 Introduction 978.5.2 Very Low-Frequency (VLF) Communications 978.5.3 High-Frequency (HF) Communications 988.5.4 Terrestrial VHF, UHF and SHF Tactical Communications 998.5.5 Satellite Communications 1008.6 Emerging Communications Techniques 1038.6.1 Introduction 1038.6.2 Ad-hoc Networks 1038.6.3 Disruption-Tolerant Networks (DTN) 1038.6.4 Software-Defined Radio (SDR) 1048.6.5 Environmental Modelling for Communications Management 1068.6.6 Spectrum Management and Utilisation 1078.6.7 Smart Antennas for Military Communications 1098.6.8 The Push to Higher RF Frequencies and Laser Communications 1098.6.9 Ultra Wideband (UWB) Techniques 1108.6.10 Communications Security 1108.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance 1118.7.1 Introduction 1118.7.2 Beyond Silicon Technologies 1118.7.3 Potential of Nanotechnology 1118.7.4 Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Computing 1128.7.5 Negative Refractive Materials and Their Applications 1138.7.6 Low-power High-stability Reference Sources 1138.7.7 Power Sources 1138.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications 1148.9 Summary and Conclusions 114Acknowledgements 115References 115Biographies 1159 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro 117Peter Cochrane9.1 In the Beginning 1179.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control 1189.3 Some General Trends 1209.4 What do People Want and Need? 1229.5 What can People Expect /Have? 1239.6 Likely Technology Developments 1249.6.1 Home and Office 1249.6.2 Manufacturing, Retail and Logistics 1269.6.3 Logistics of Things and People 1269.6.4 Parasitic Networks 1279.6.5 Mobile Sensor Networks 1289.7 Clusters of People and Things 1289.8 Finally 129Biography 13110 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future 133Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi10.1 Introduction 13310.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions 13410.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity 13610.3.1 Wireless Home Networks 13610.3.2 Military Applications 13710.3.3 Public Safety 13710.3.4 Private and Public Transportation 13810.3.5 Metro-area Broadband Networks 13910.3.6 Mining and Manufacturing 13910.3.7 Corporate Networks 13910.3.8 Sensor Networks and Things-to-Things Communication 14010.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity 14010.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network 14210.5.1 Autonomous Peer-to-Peer Networks 14210.5.2 Hybrid Mesh Networks 14310.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks 14410.6.1 Linking of Ad-hoc Workgroups 14410.6.2 Extension of carrier broadband networks 14410.6.3 Enhanced Network Performance 14410.7 Enabling Technologies 14510.7.1 Self-configuration and Self-organisation 14510.7.2 Multi-hopping and Dynamic Routing of Data Packets 14510.7.3 Smart Sensors and Devices 14610.7.4 Location-awareness 14610.7.5 Low-power and Energy-scavenging Technologies 14610.7.6 End User Control over Preferences and Privacy 14710.8 New Business and Usage Models 14710.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers 15010.9.1 Incumbent Wireless Carriers 15010.9.2 Cable Broadband Operators 15010.9.3 ‘Mom and Pop’ Wisps 15110.9.4 Greenfield Operators 15110.9.5 Marketers 15110.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities 152Reference 152Biographies 15311 Interference and Our Wireless Future 155Dennis A. Roberson11.1 Introduction 15511.2 History 15611.3 Spectrum Scarcity 15711.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration 15711.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches 16211.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems 162References 165Biography 16612 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications 167Simon Saunders12.1 Introduction 16712.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011 16912.2.1 Introduction 16912.2.2 Services and Applications 17012.2.3 Devices 17212.2.4 Infrastructure 17312.2.5 Air Interfaces 17312.2.6 Spectrum 17412.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016 17512.3.1 Introduction 17512.3.2 Services and Applications 17512.3.3 Devices 17612.3.4 Infrastructure 17612.3.5 Air Interfaces 17712.3.6 Spectrum 17812.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026 17912.4.1 Introduction 17912.4.2 Services and Applications 17912.4.3 Devices 18012.4.4 Infrastructure 18012.4.5 Air Interfaces 18112.4.6 Spectrum 18112.5 Conclusions and Summary 182Reference 183Biography 18413 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption 185Stephen Temple CBE13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio 18513.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum 18713.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future 18813.4 Fourth-generation Technology 19013.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM? 19213.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now 19413.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force 19513.7.1 Convergence: Mobile and Broadcasting 19513.7.2 Convergence: Internet and Telephone Services 19713.7.3 Convergence and the ‘Battle for the Home’ 198Broadband Heavy-user Homes 200Broadband Light-user Homes 202Homes with no DSL Connection 20313.7.4 Convergence and the Evolution of Mobile Handsets 20313.7.5 Summary Impact of Convergence as a Disruptive Force 20413.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption 20513.8.1 Governments 20513.8.2 Regulatory Loose Cannons 20613.8.3 Disruptive Competitors 20713.8.4 Disruptive Suppliers 20713.8.5 Gyrating Financial Markets 20813.8.6 Unpredictable Customers 20813.8.7 Disruptive Technologies 20913.8.8 The Global Perspective 20913.8.9 Summary Vision of the ‘Blindside’ Forces 21013.9 Conclusions 210Biography 21114 Assimilating the Key Factors 21314.1 Introduction 21314.2 Summary of the Current Position 21314.3 Summary of End User Demand 21414.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section 21414.5 Summary from the Contributors 215Paul Cannon 215Peter Cochrane 216Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi 216Dennis Roberson 216Simon Saunders 217Stephen Temple 21714.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors 21814.6.1 Areas not Included in Previous Discussion 218Connectivity 218Backhaul 219Applications 219Technology 219Regulation 21914.6.2 Areas of Disagreement 21914.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement 22014.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together 22115 The Future Roadmap 22315.1 Introduction 22315.2 Predictions for 2011 22315.3 Predictions for 2016 22715.4 Predictions for 2021 23215.5 Predictions for 2026 23315.6 Key New Applications 23515.7 Key New Technologies 23615.8 Key Changes in Networks 23715.9 Major Growth Areas 23815.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful 23815.11 Implications for Stakeholders 239Manufacturers 239Operators 239Service Providers 240Regulators 240Academics and Researchers 24015.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000 24115.13 The Future in a Page 24315.14 … And the Elevator Pitch 244List of Acronyms 245Index 249

William Webb is Head of R&D and Senior Technologist, Ofcom, UK. William is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, and has worked in the wireless communications industry since his graduation in 1989. William has published over 60 papers in various journals, chairs some six conferences a year, including the 3GSM Congress and the BlueTooth Congress, and speaks at many more.

Select Guide Rating

• Preface xvAcknowledgements xviiAbout the Author xix1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business 12 Previous Predictions have been Accurate 32.1 Introduction 32.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate 32.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005 62.4 How Well did we do? 72.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010 82.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now? 92.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future 93 How to put Together a Forecast 114 The Current Position 134.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position 134.2 Mobile Communications 144.2.1 Cellular 14Introduction to Cellular [1–3] 142G Cellular 153G Cellular 17WiMax for Mobile Applications 18‘4G’ Cellular 19Convergent Technologies 21Summary for Cellular 224.2.2 Private Mobile Radio 22Introduction 22Analogue Communications 23Digital Communications 234.2.3 Mobile Mesh Systems 244.2.4 Cognitive Radio 254.3 Fixed wireless 274.3.1 Introduction 274.3.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless 274.3.3 Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless 284.3.4 Likely Success of Fixed Wireless 284.3.5 Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering 294.3.6 The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless 294.4 Short-range Devices 304.4.1 Introduction 304.4.2 Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices 314.4.3 Ultra Wideband (UWB) 324.4.4 Wireless LANs [5] 334.4.5 BlueTooth [6] 344.4.6 Dect 354.4.7 Zigbee 354.4.8 RFIDs 364.4.9 The Prognosis for Short-range Devices 364.5 Core Networks 374.6 Broadcasting 394.6.1 Conventional Broadcasting 394.6.2 Mobile Broadcasting 414.7 Industry Structure 424.8 Summary 424.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM 43OFDM is Increasingly in Favour 43A Quick Introduction to OFDM 43Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM 44Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable 45Problems Specific to OFDM 45Specific Applications 45So is OFDM the New ‘Technology of Choice’? 48References 485 End User Demand 495.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical 495.2 How People React to New Concepts 495.3 Changing Patterns of Spending 515.4 What they have Today 535.5 What they want Now 535.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns 555.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem 565.8 In Summary 576 Technology Progress 596.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast 596.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws 606.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws 626.3.1 Moore’s Law 626.3.2 Metcalfe’s Law 636.3.3 Gilder’s Law 646.3.4 Cooper’s Law 656.3.5 Edholm’s Law 676.3.6 Growth in Disk Size 686.3.7 Goodhart’s Law 706.3.8 Laws or Trends? 706.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’ 706.4.1 Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission 71Software-defined Radio 71Smart Antennas 71Wireless Mesh Networking 72Interference Cancellation 73Cognitive Radio 746.4.2 Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul 746.4.3 Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals 766.4.4 Technologies Leading to ‘Artificial Intelligence’ 846.4.5 Compression Technologies 856.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs 856.6 Implications for the Future 85References 867 Major World Events 877.1 Introduction 877.2 World Events 877.3 Events in Related Industries 897.4 Summary 907.5 The Next Chapters 908 Future Military Wireless Solutions 91Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding8.1 Introduction 918.2 Operational Context 928.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications 938.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems 948.4.1 Impact of Unmanned Vehicles 948.4.2 Impact of High-Altitude Platforms (HAPs) 958.4.3 Impact of Future Infantry Soldier Technology 968.4.4 Impact of Wireless Sensor Networks 968.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems 978.5.1 Introduction 978.5.2 Very Low-Frequency (VLF) Communications 978.5.3 High-Frequency (HF) Communications 988.5.4 Terrestrial VHF, UHF and SHF Tactical Communications 998.5.5 Satellite Communications 1008.6 Emerging Communications Techniques 1038.6.1 Introduction 1038.6.2 Ad-hoc Networks 1038.6.3 Disruption-Tolerant Networks (DTN) 1038.6.4 Software-Defined Radio (SDR) 1048.6.5 Environmental Modelling for Communications Management 1068.6.6 Spectrum Management and Utilisation 1078.6.7 Smart Antennas for Military Communications 1098.6.8 The Push to Higher RF Frequencies and Laser Communications 1098.6.9 Ultra Wideband (UWB) Techniques 1108.6.10 Communications Security 1108.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance 1118.7.1 Introduction 1118.7.2 Beyond Silicon Technologies 1118.7.3 Potential of Nanotechnology 1118.7.4 Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Computing 1128.7.5 Negative Refractive Materials and Their Applications 1138.7.6 Low-power High-stability Reference Sources 1138.7.7 Power Sources 1138.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications 1148.9 Summary and Conclusions 114Acknowledgements 115References 115Biographies 1159 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro 117Peter Cochrane9.1 In the Beginning 1179.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control 1189.3 Some General Trends 1209.4 What do People Want and Need? 1229.5 What can People Expect /Have? 1239.6 Likely Technology Developments 1249.6.1 Home and Office 1249.6.2 Manufacturing, Retail and Logistics 1269.6.3 Logistics of Things and People 1269.6.4 Parasitic Networks 1279.6.5 Mobile Sensor Networks 1289.7 Clusters of People and Things 1289.8 Finally 129Biography 13110 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future 133Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi10.1 Introduction 13310.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions 13410.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity 13610.3.1 Wireless Home Networks 13610.3.2 Military Applications 13710.3.3 Public Safety 13710.3.4 Private and Public Transportation 13810.3.5 Metro-area Broadband Networks 13910.3.6 Mining and Manufacturing 13910.3.7 Corporate Networks 13910.3.8 Sensor Networks and Things-to-Things Communication 14010.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity 14010.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network 14210.5.1 Autonomous Peer-to-Peer Networks 14210.5.2 Hybrid Mesh Networks 14310.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks 14410.6.1 Linking of Ad-hoc Workgroups 14410.6.2 Extension of carrier broadband networks 14410.6.3 Enhanced Network Performance 14410.7 Enabling Technologies 14510.7.1 Self-configuration and Self-organisation 14510.7.2 Multi-hopping and Dynamic Routing of Data Packets 14510.7.3 Smart Sensors and Devices 14610.7.4 Location-awareness 14610.7.5 Low-power and Energy-scavenging Technologies 14610.7.6 End User Control over Preferences and Privacy 14710.8 New Business and Usage Models 14710.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers 15010.9.1 Incumbent Wireless Carriers 15010.9.2 Cable Broadband Operators 15010.9.3 ‘Mom and Pop’ Wisps 15110.9.4 Greenfield Operators 15110.9.5 Marketers 15110.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities 152Reference 152Biographies 15311 Interference and Our Wireless Future 155Dennis A. Roberson11.1 Introduction 15511.2 History 15611.3 Spectrum Scarcity 15711.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration 15711.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches 16211.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems 162References 165Biography 16612 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications 167Simon Saunders12.1 Introduction 16712.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011 16912.2.1 Introduction 16912.2.2 Services and Applications 17012.2.3 Devices 17212.2.4 Infrastructure 17312.2.5 Air Interfaces 17312.2.6 Spectrum 17412.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016 17512.3.1 Introduction 17512.3.2 Services and Applications 17512.3.3 Devices 17612.3.4 Infrastructure 17612.3.5 Air Interfaces 17712.3.6 Spectrum 17812.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026 17912.4.1 Introduction 17912.4.2 Services and Applications 17912.4.3 Devices 18012.4.4 Infrastructure 18012.4.5 Air Interfaces 18112.4.6 Spectrum 18112.5 Conclusions and Summary 182Reference 183Biography 18413 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption 185Stephen Temple CBE13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio 18513.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum 18713.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future 18813.4 Fourth-generation Technology 19013.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM? 19213.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now 19413.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force 19513.7.1 Convergence: Mobile and Broadcasting 19513.7.2 Convergence: Internet and Telephone Services 19713.7.3 Convergence and the ‘Battle for the Home’ 198Broadband Heavy-user Homes 200Broadband Light-user Homes 202Homes with no DSL Connection 20313.7.4 Convergence and the Evolution of Mobile Handsets 20313.7.5 Summary Impact of Convergence as a Disruptive Force 20413.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption 20513.8.1 Governments 20513.8.2 Regulatory Loose Cannons 20613.8.3 Disruptive Competitors 20713.8.4 Disruptive Suppliers 20713.8.5 Gyrating Financial Markets 20813.8.6 Unpredictable Customers 20813.8.7 Disruptive Technologies 20913.8.8 The Global Perspective 20913.8.9 Summary Vision of the ‘Blindside’ Forces 21013.9 Conclusions 210Biography 21114 Assimilating the Key Factors 21314.1 Introduction 21314.2 Summary of the Current Position 21314.3 Summary of End User Demand 21414.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section 21414.5 Summary from the Contributors 215Paul Cannon 215Peter Cochrane 216Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi 216Dennis Roberson 216Simon Saunders 217Stephen Temple 21714.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors 21814.6.1 Areas not Included in Previous Discussion 218Connectivity 218Backhaul 219Applications 219Technology 219Regulation 21914.6.2 Areas of Disagreement 21914.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement 22014.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together 22115 The Future Roadmap 22315.1 Introduction 22315.2 Predictions for 2011 22315.3 Predictions for 2016 22715.4 Predictions for 2021 23215.5 Predictions for 2026 23315.6 Key New Applications 23515.7 Key New Technologies 23615.8 Key Changes in Networks 23715.9 Major Growth Areas 23815.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful 23815.11 Implications for Stakeholders 239Manufacturers 239Operators 239Service Providers 240Regulators 240Academics and Researchers 24015.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000 24115.13 The Future in a Page 24315.14 … And the Elevator Pitch 244List of Acronyms 245Index 249