MICHAEL DUANE ARCHER has been an active commodity futures and Forex trader for over thirty years. He has worked in various advisory capacities, notably as a commodity trading advisor and a SEC-registered investment advisor. Archer operates www.fxpraxis.com and is a professional Forex money manager. He is also the author of Getting Started in Currency Trading, which is also published by Wiley. JAMES LAUREN BICKFORD began trading in commodity futures in the early 1980s. Since 2001, he has focused his investment efforts solely on trading spot currency pairs via online Forex dealers. Bickford's academic background is in computer science, mathematics, and statistics. By profession, he has been a software engineer for nearly three decades.

Select Guide Rating

• Acknowledgments xvIntroduction xviiPART I Forex-Specific Charting Techniques 1CHAPTER 1 Streaming Data 3Overview 3Tick Chart 3Spread Chart 4Conclusion 5CHAPTER 2 Activity 6Overview 6Activity Bar Chart 6Composite Activity 8Time of Day Activity Chart 8Day of Week Activity Chart 9Equi-Activity Chart 10Activity Mercury Chart 10Uptick-Downtick Mercury Chart 12Conclusion 13CHAPTER 3 Direction 14Overview 14Direction Chart 14Direction Mercury Chart 16Activity-Direction Mercury Chart 17Conclusion 18CHAPTER 4 Forex versus Futures 19Overview 19Pip Differential Chart 19Activity versus Volume and Open Interest 22Conclusion 22CHAPTER 5 Arbitrage 23Overview 23Transitivity 23Triangular Arbitrage Chart 24Equilibrium 25Major Currencies 28Observation 28CHAPTER 6 The Mundo 29Overview 29Forex Beta 29Mundo Line Chart 31Weighting 32Mundo Bar Chart 33Observation 33CHAPTER 7 Range Charts 34Overview 34Range Bar Chart 34Composite Range Charts 35Time of Day Range Chart 35Day of Week Range Chart 37Average Interval Range Chart 37Observations 38CHAPTER 8 Absolute Momentum 39Overview 39Absolute Momentum 39Time of Day Momentum Chart 40Day of Week Momentum Chart 41Conclusion 42CHAPTER 9 Two-Dimensional Momentum 43Overview 43Two-Dimensional Momentum Chart 43Islands 45Smoothing 47Observation 47CHAPTER 10 Moving Trend Analysis 49Overview 49Linear Regression 49Ordinary Least Squares Method 50Coefficient of Correlation 51Trend Oscillators 51Moving Slope Oscillator 52Moving Correlation Oscillator 52Moving Trend Index 52Observations 54PART II Point and Figure Charting 55CHAPTER 11 History of Point and Figure Charting 57Overview 57History 58CHAPTER 12 The Point and Figure Algorithm 59Overview 59P&F Anatomy 59Box Size 59Reversal Amount 60Unraveling Bar Quote Data 61P&F Algorithm 61Time Representation 62CHAPTER 13 Trend Lines 63Support and Resistance 63Trend Lines 63Buy Signals 65Sell Signals 65CHAPTER 14 Double Tops and Bottoms 67Overview 67Double Top Pattern 67Double Bottom Pattern 68Double Top Signals 68Double Bottom Signals 70False Signals 72Signal Percentages 72Observations 74CHAPTER 15 Triple Tops and Bottoms 75Overview 75Triple Top Pattern 75Triple Bottom Pattern 76Triple Top Signals 76Triple Bottom Signals 78False Signals 79Signal Percentages 79Observations 81CHAPTER 16 Triangles 82Overview 82Ascending Triangles 82Descending Triangles 83Symmetrical Triangles 83Triangle Signals 84Ascending and Descending Frequencies 84Symmetrical Frequencies 87Observation 87CHAPTER 17 Pattern Frequencies 89Overview 89Box Size =One Pip 90Box Size = Two Pips 92Box Size = Three Pips 93Inverse Patterns 94Usage 94CHAPTER 18 Breakout Analysis 96Overview 96Preceding Columns 97Succeeding Columns 100Observations 102CHAPTER 19 Count Methods 104Overview 104Horizontal Count (Buy) 104Horizontal Count (Sell) 106Vertical Count (Buy) 107Vertical Count (Sell) 108Observations 109CHAPTER 20 Plotting Point and Figure Charts in Real Time 110Overview 110Tools of the Trade 110Trading Platform 110Trading Goals 111Starting the Process 111Real-Time Example 111Performance Evaluation 114PART III Forex Swing Charting 115CHAPTER 21 Fibonacci Primer 117Overview 117Fibonacci the Man 117Fibonacci the Series 118Fibonacci the Ratios 119Fibonacci the Equations 120Binet’s Formula 122Interpretation 122Resources 124CHAPTER 22 Swing Charts 125Overview 125Definitions 125Box Size 126Reversal Amount 126Swing Reversal Algorithm 127Time Alignment 128Practical Examples 129Composite Swing Charts 132Usage 132CHAPTER 23 The Measured Move 134Overview 134Testing Approach 135Cluster Charts 135Average Retracement 137Decile Divisions 139Practical Examples 141Conclusion 146CHAPTER 24 The Fifty Percent Principle 147Overview 147Testing Approach 147Initial Results 148Increasing Tolerance 150CHAPTER 25 Improving The Third Wave Forecast 152Overview 152Methodology 153Multiple Regression 154Quartiles 154Practical Examples 157Fifty Percent Principle 160Fifty Percent Examples 160CHAPTER 26 Forecasting The Fourth Wave 162Overview 162Testing Approach 162Practical Examples 164Improving the Forecast 164Three-Wave Trending Cycles 165Trending Example 166  Three-Wave Nontrending Cycles 166Nontrending Example 167Extending the Forecast 167Estimate Charts 168Live Usage 170CHAPTER 27 Cycle Frequencies 171Overview 171Two-Wave Cycles 171Three-Wave Cycles 173Four-Wave Bull Cycles 175Four-Wave Bear Cycles 177Usage 178CHAPTER 28 Bull Cycles 180Overview 180Ideal Bull Cycle 180Objective 181Initial Results 182Praxis 183Caveat 185Further Studies 185CHAPTER 29 Bear Cycles 186Overview 186Ideal Bear Cycle 186Objective 187Initial Results 187Praxis 188Caveat 190CHAPTER 30 Swing Properties 191Overview 191Wave Anatomy 191Simple Ratios 192Swing Averages 192Swing Data Preliminaries 194Bivariate Data 195Swing Volatility 197Swing Velocity 199CHAPTER 31 Swing Summary 200Overview 200Selecting Swing Parameters 200Composite Average Estimates 202Caveat 207PART IV Other Reversal Charts 209CHAPTER 32 Western Reversal Charts 211Overview 211Geometric Chart 211Trend Outline Chart 213Pivot Chart 215Observation 216CHAPTER 33 Japanese Reversal Charts 217Overview 217Renko Chart 217Kagi Chart 220Three-Line Break Chart 224PART V Goodman Swing Count System 227CHAPTER 34 History 229Charles B. Goodman 229The Right Brackets 230Later Developments 230CHAPTER 35 Ordinal Principles 233Ordinal versus Cardinal 233The Measured Move 233Congestion Phase 234Equilibrium of Buyers and Sellers 235CHAPTER 36 Cardinal Principles 238Overview 238Price Surge 238Multilevel Matrices 239Compensation 241Carryover 241Cancellation 242Intersections 244Five Points of a Goodman Wave 245Double and Triple Intersections 246CHAPTER 37 Goodman versus Elliott 247Overview 247Propagation 248The Return 249CHAPTER 38 Charting Study 251Overview 251Notation 251Matrix 251Propagation 253Simple/Complex 254Fat/Thin 255Goodman and Computers 255APPENDIXESA.World Currencies 259B. Exchange Rates 264C. Euro Currency 267D. Global Banking Hours 269E. Monthly OHLC and Activity Charts 271F. Daily OHLC and Activity Charts 282G. Time of Day Charts (Activity) 293H. Time of Day Charts (Range) 297I. Time of Day Charts (Momentum) 301J . Day of Week Charts (Activity) 305K. Day of Week Charts (Range) 311L. Day of Week Charts (Momentum) 317M. Comparative Statistics 323N. Unraveling Bar Quotes 325O. Visual Basic Source Code (Point and Figure) 331P. Visual Basic Source Code (Swing) 338Resources 341Index 349About the Authors 361

MICHAEL DUANE ARCHER has been an active commodity futures and Forex trader for over thirty years. He has worked in various advisory capacities, notably as a commodity trading advisor and a SEC-registered investment advisor. Archer operates www.fxpraxis.com and is a professional Forex money manager. He is also the author of Getting Started in Currency Trading, which is also published by Wiley. JAMES LAUREN BICKFORD began trading in commodity futures in the early 1980s. Since 2001, he has focused his investment efforts solely on trading spot currency pairs via online Forex dealers. Bickford's academic background is in computer science, mathematics, and statistics. By profession, he has been a software engineer for nearly three decades.

Select Guide Rating

• Acknowledgments xvIntroduction xviiPART I Forex-Specific Charting Techniques 1CHAPTER 1 Streaming Data 3Overview 3Tick Chart 3Spread Chart 4Conclusion 5CHAPTER 2 Activity 6Overview 6Activity Bar Chart 6Composite Activity 8Time of Day Activity Chart 8Day of Week Activity Chart 9Equi-Activity Chart 10Activity Mercury Chart 10Uptick-Downtick Mercury Chart 12Conclusion 13CHAPTER 3 Direction 14Overview 14Direction Chart 14Direction Mercury Chart 16Activity-Direction Mercury Chart 17Conclusion 18CHAPTER 4 Forex versus Futures 19Overview 19Pip Differential Chart 19Activity versus Volume and Open Interest 22Conclusion 22CHAPTER 5 Arbitrage 23Overview 23Transitivity 23Triangular Arbitrage Chart 24Equilibrium 25Major Currencies 28Observation 28CHAPTER 6 The Mundo 29Overview 29Forex Beta 29Mundo Line Chart 31Weighting 32Mundo Bar Chart 33Observation 33CHAPTER 7 Range Charts 34Overview 34Range Bar Chart 34Composite Range Charts 35Time of Day Range Chart 35Day of Week Range Chart 37Average Interval Range Chart 37Observations 38CHAPTER 8 Absolute Momentum 39Overview 39Absolute Momentum 39Time of Day Momentum Chart 40Day of Week Momentum Chart 41Conclusion 42CHAPTER 9 Two-Dimensional Momentum 43Overview 43Two-Dimensional Momentum Chart 43Islands 45Smoothing 47Observation 47CHAPTER 10 Moving Trend Analysis 49Overview 49Linear Regression 49Ordinary Least Squares Method 50Coefficient of Correlation 51Trend Oscillators 51Moving Slope Oscillator 52Moving Correlation Oscillator 52Moving Trend Index 52Observations 54PART II Point and Figure Charting 55CHAPTER 11 History of Point and Figure Charting 57Overview 57History 58CHAPTER 12 The Point and Figure Algorithm 59Overview 59P&F Anatomy 59Box Size 59Reversal Amount 60Unraveling Bar Quote Data 61P&F Algorithm 61Time Representation 62CHAPTER 13 Trend Lines 63Support and Resistance 63Trend Lines 63Buy Signals 65Sell Signals 65CHAPTER 14 Double Tops and Bottoms 67Overview 67Double Top Pattern 67Double Bottom Pattern 68Double Top Signals 68Double Bottom Signals 70False Signals 72Signal Percentages 72Observations 74CHAPTER 15 Triple Tops and Bottoms 75Overview 75Triple Top Pattern 75Triple Bottom Pattern 76Triple Top Signals 76Triple Bottom Signals 78False Signals 79Signal Percentages 79Observations 81CHAPTER 16 Triangles 82Overview 82Ascending Triangles 82Descending Triangles 83Symmetrical Triangles 83Triangle Signals 84Ascending and Descending Frequencies 84Symmetrical Frequencies 87Observation 87CHAPTER 17 Pattern Frequencies 89Overview 89Box Size =One Pip 90Box Size = Two Pips 92Box Size = Three Pips 93Inverse Patterns 94Usage 94CHAPTER 18 Breakout Analysis 96Overview 96Preceding Columns 97Succeeding Columns 100Observations 102CHAPTER 19 Count Methods 104Overview 104Horizontal Count (Buy) 104Horizontal Count (Sell) 106Vertical Count (Buy) 107Vertical Count (Sell) 108Observations 109CHAPTER 20 Plotting Point and Figure Charts in Real Time 110Overview 110Tools of the Trade 110Trading Platform 110Trading Goals 111Starting the Process 111Real-Time Example 111Performance Evaluation 114PART III Forex Swing Charting 115CHAPTER 21 Fibonacci Primer 117Overview 117Fibonacci the Man 117Fibonacci the Series 118Fibonacci the Ratios 119Fibonacci the Equations 120Binet’s Formula 122Interpretation 122Resources 124CHAPTER 22 Swing Charts 125Overview 125Definitions 125Box Size 126Reversal Amount 126Swing Reversal Algorithm 127Time Alignment 128Practical Examples 129Composite Swing Charts 132Usage 132CHAPTER 23 The Measured Move 134Overview 134Testing Approach 135Cluster Charts 135Average Retracement 137Decile Divisions 139Practical Examples 141Conclusion 146CHAPTER 24 The Fifty Percent Principle 147Overview 147Testing Approach 147Initial Results 148Increasing Tolerance 150CHAPTER 25 Improving The Third Wave Forecast 152Overview 152Methodology 153Multiple Regression 154Quartiles 154Practical Examples 157Fifty Percent Principle 160Fifty Percent Examples 160CHAPTER 26 Forecasting The Fourth Wave 162Overview 162Testing Approach 162Practical Examples 164Improving the Forecast 164Three-Wave Trending Cycles 165Trending Example 166  Three-Wave Nontrending Cycles 166Nontrending Example 167Extending the Forecast 167Estimate Charts 168Live Usage 170CHAPTER 27 Cycle Frequencies 171Overview 171Two-Wave Cycles 171Three-Wave Cycles 173Four-Wave Bull Cycles 175Four-Wave Bear Cycles 177Usage 178CHAPTER 28 Bull Cycles 180Overview 180Ideal Bull Cycle 180Objective 181Initial Results 182Praxis 183Caveat 185Further Studies 185CHAPTER 29 Bear Cycles 186Overview 186Ideal Bear Cycle 186Objective 187Initial Results 187Praxis 188Caveat 190CHAPTER 30 Swing Properties 191Overview 191Wave Anatomy 191Simple Ratios 192Swing Averages 192Swing Data Preliminaries 194Bivariate Data 195Swing Volatility 197Swing Velocity 199CHAPTER 31 Swing Summary 200Overview 200Selecting Swing Parameters 200Composite Average Estimates 202Caveat 207PART IV Other Reversal Charts 209CHAPTER 32 Western Reversal Charts 211Overview 211Geometric Chart 211Trend Outline Chart 213Pivot Chart 215Observation 216CHAPTER 33 Japanese Reversal Charts 217Overview 217Renko Chart 217Kagi Chart 220Three-Line Break Chart 224PART V Goodman Swing Count System 227CHAPTER 34 History 229Charles B. Goodman 229The Right Brackets 230Later Developments 230CHAPTER 35 Ordinal Principles 233Ordinal versus Cardinal 233The Measured Move 233Congestion Phase 234Equilibrium of Buyers and Sellers 235CHAPTER 36 Cardinal Principles 238Overview 238Price Surge 238Multilevel Matrices 239Compensation 241Carryover 241Cancellation 242Intersections 244Five Points of a Goodman Wave 245Double and Triple Intersections 246CHAPTER 37 Goodman versus Elliott 247Overview 247Propagation 248The Return 249CHAPTER 38 Charting Study 251Overview 251Notation 251Matrix 251Propagation 253Simple/Complex 254Fat/Thin 255Goodman and Computers 255APPENDIXESA.World Currencies 259B. Exchange Rates 264C. Euro Currency 267D. Global Banking Hours 269E. Monthly OHLC and Activity Charts 271F. Daily OHLC and Activity Charts 282G. Time of Day Charts (Activity) 293H. Time of Day Charts (Range) 297I. Time of Day Charts (Momentum) 301J . Day of Week Charts (Activity) 305K. Day of Week Charts (Range) 311L. Day of Week Charts (Momentum) 317M. Comparative Statistics 323N. Unraveling Bar Quotes 325O. Visual Basic Source Code (Point and Figure) 331P. Visual Basic Source Code (Swing) 338Resources 341Index 349About the Authors 361