Scenarios for Success

About the editors Bill Sharpe is an independent researcher in science, technology and society. He was a research director at Hewlett Packard Laboratories where he led research into everyday applications of digital technology. He introduced scenario methods to HP for long-range research and business management, and pioneered the use of scenario methods for supporting business innovation. In 1999 he co-founded an innovation and consulting company, The Appliance Studio, and now specializes in long range technology studies for business strategy and public policy foresight. He has worked extensively for the UK government's Foresight Programme in areas such as Cognitive Systems, Cybertrust, and Intelligent Infrastructure. With a background in computing and psychology, he is particularly interested in drawing on leading edge research in cognition and systems thinking to find new ways of tackling complex problems. He works independently and as an associate with several leading organizations in the futures field. Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group's Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role. He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.

"[The book] shows just how many new aspects there are to be seen."  (Credit Control Journal, Volume 28 #4)

• List of Contributors ixPreface xiiiAcknowledgments xvOverview xviiPart I Origins: Navigating with Invisible Islands 11 Conversations with Peter Schwartz and Napier Collyns 13Bill Sharpe2 Professional Dreamers: The Future in the Past of Scenario Planning 27Cynthia SelinPart II Scenarios In the World of Business 533 Scenarios and Innovation 75Jan Verloop4 Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Role for Scenarios in Strategy 89Rafael Ramírez and Kees Van der Heijden5 Deepening Futures with System Structure 121Tony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe6 From Signals to Decisions 145Alexander Fink, Philip Hadridge and Gill Ringland7 When Strangers Meet: Scenarios and the Legal Profession 173Karim Medjad and Rafael Ramírez8 The Power of Narrative 197Lennart NordforsPart III Scenarios In the World of Management 2179 Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovation at Rabobank 235Paul de Ruijter10 Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons for Facilitators 259Ronald Bradfield11 Appreciating the Future 279Tony Hodgson12 Building a Comprehensive Strategic Future Management System: A Future Map Approach 315Don Heathfield13 Acting on the Future 339Andrew Curry14 Backwards to the Future: Scenarios as Routines for Organizational Health 373James TanseyConcluding Remarks 391References 395Index 403