Systems Approach to Management of Disasters

SLOBODAN P. SIMONOVIC is a Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and an Engineering Research Chair of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at the University of Western Ontario. He teaches courses in civil engineering systems, water resources systems, and disaster management. He actively works for national and international professional organizations and has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research, and outreach. He has also been invited to present special courses for practicing water and disaster managers in many countries.

"As such, the book emphasises the significant contribution that science and engineering can make in the management of disasters and it is a valuable addition to the disaster management bibliography."  (Natural Hazards, 1 April 2012)

• List of Figures and Tables xiiiAbout the Author xixForeword xxiPreface xxvList of Acronyms and Abbreviations xxxiiiI Management of Disasters 11 Introduction 31.1 Issues in Management of Disasters—Personal Experience 61.1.1 Red River Flooding 61.1.2 “Red River Flood of the Century,” Manitoba, Canada 91.2 Tools for Management of Disasters—Two New Paradigms 191.2.1 The Complexity Paradigm 211.2.2 The Uncertainty Paradigm 241.3 Conclusions 26References 27Exercises 292 Integrated Disaster Management 302.1 Definition 302.2 Integrated Disaster Management Activities 312.2.1 Mitigation 312.2.2 Preparedness 392.2.3 Response 402.2.4 Recovery 402.3 Disaster Management in Canada—Brief Overview 412.3.1 Emergency Management Act 422.3.2 National Disaster Mitigation Strategy 422.3.3 Joint Emergency Preparedness Program 432.3.4 Emergency Response 442.3.5 The Role of Federal Government in Disaster Recovery 452.4 Decision Making and Integrated Disaster Management 462.4.1 Individual Decision Making 472.4.2 Decision Making in Organizations 472.4.3 Decision Making in Government 472.5 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management 48References 49Exercises 50II Systems Analysis for Integrated Management of Disasters 513 Systems Thinking and Integrated Disaster Management 533.1 System Definitions 543.1.1 What is a System? 553.1.2 Systems Thinking 563.1.3 Systems Analysis 593.1.4 The Systems Approach 603.1.5 Systems “Engineering” 603.1.6 Feedback 613.1.7 Mathematical Modeling 663.1.8 A Classification of Systems 683.1.9 A Classification of Mathematical Models 703.2 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management 703.2.1 A Systems Typology in Integrated Disaster Management 713.2.2 Systems View of Disaster Management 733.2.3 Systems View of Disaster Management Activities 763.3 System Formulation Examples 773.3.1 Dynamics of Epidemics 783.3.2 Shortest Supply Route 803.3.3 Resources Allocation 81References 82Exercises 834 Introduction to Methods and Tools for a Systems Approach to Management of Disaster 854.1 Simulation 854.2 System Dynamics Simulation 894.3 Optimization 924.4 Multiobjective Analysis 954.5 Disaster Risk Management 974.5.1 Sources of Uncertainty 984.5.2 Conceptual Risk Definitions 1004.5.3 Probabilistic Approach 1024.5.4 A Fuzzy Set Approach 1034.6 Computer Support: Decision Support Systems 106References 109Exercises 111III Implementation of Systems Analysis to Management of Disasters 1135 Simulation 1155.1 Definitions 1155.2 System Dynamics Simulation 1165.2.1 Introduction 1165.2.2 System Structure and Patterns of Behavior 1175.3 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Process 1265.3.1 Causal Loop Diagram 1275.3.2 Stock and Flow Diagram 1315.3.3 Generic Principles of System Dynamics Simulation Modeling 1335.3.4 Numerical Simulation 1375.3.5 Policy Design and Evaluation—Model Use 1415.4 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Examples 1415.4.1 A Simple Flu Epidemic Model 1425.4.2 A More Complex Flu Epidemic Model with Recovery 1465.5 An Example of Disaster Management Simulation—Flood Evacuation Simulation Model 1525.5.1 Introduction 1525.5.2 Human Behavior During Disasters 1535.5.3 A System Dynamics Simulation Model 1545.5.4 Application of the Evacuation Model to the Analyses of Flood Emergency Procedures in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada 1625.5.5 Conclusions 171References 172Exercises 1726 Optimization 1756.1 Linear Programming 1786.1.1 Formulation of Linear Optimization Models 1786.1.2 Algebraic Representations of Linear Optimization Models 1826.2 The Simplex Method for Solving Linear Programs 1866.2.1 Completeness of the Simplex Algorithm 1906.2.2 The Big M Method 1936.3 Duality in LP 1966.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis 1986.4 Special Types of LP Problems—Transportation Problem 2026.4.1 Formulation of the Transportation Problem 2026.4.2 Solution of the Transportation Problem 2076.5 Special Types of LP Problems—Network Problems 2136.5.1 The Shortest Path Problem 2176.5.2 The Minimum Spanning Tree Problem 2196.5.3 The Maximum Flow Problem 2236.6 An Example of Disaster Management Optimization—The Optimal Placement of Casualty Evacuation Assets 2296.6.1 Introduction 2296.6.2 The OPTEVAC Model 2306.6.3 A Casualty Evacuation Example 2316.6.4 Summary 234References 234Exercises 2357 Multiobjective Analysis 2427.1 Introduction 2437.1.1 Toward Operational Framework for Multiobjective Analysis 2437.1.2 An Illustrative Example 2447.2 Multiobjective Analysis Methodology 2497.2.1 Change of Concept 2517.2.2 Nondominated Solutions 2517.2.3 Participation of Decision Makers 2547.2.4 Classification of Multiobjective Techniques 2557.2.5 Disaster Management Applications 2597.3 The Weighting Method 2637.4 The Compromise Programming Method 2687.4.1 Compromise Programming 2687.4.2 Some Practical Recommendations 2737.4.3 The COMPRO Computer Program 2737.5 An Example of Disaster Management Multiobjective Analysis—Selection of Flood Management Alternative 2747.5.1 Preparation of Input Data 2747.5.2 Solution of Flood Management Problem Using Compromise Programming 2757.5.3 Summary 279References 279Exercises 281IV Be Prepared 2858 A View Ahead 2878.1 Issues in Future Disaster Management 2898.1.1 Climate Change 2898.1.2 Population Growth and Migrations 2918.2 A Systems View 292References 293Index 295