Probabilistic Transmission System Planning

Award-winning author Wenyuan Li is well known and highly respected in the field of electrical power engineering. He serves as Principle Engineer at BC Hydro and is a fellow of IEEE and EIC, serving on the editorial board of several international journals.He has published five books and numerous academic papers on power systems.

"Principle engineer at a Canadian electric company, Li uses his technical reports and papers as a foundation for a comprehensive guide to planning a system to transmit electricity from its generation source to the sub-transmission stations where it enters the distribution system." (Book News, 1 August 2011)

• Preface and Acknowledgments xxi 1 INTRODUCTION 11.1 Overview of Transmission Planning 11.2 Necessity of Probabilistic Transmission Planning 61.3 Outline of the Book 82 BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILISTIC PLANNING 112.1 Introduction 112.2 Probabilistic Planning Criteria 122.3 Procedure of Probabilistic Planning 142.4 Other Aspects in Probabilistic Planning 172.5 Conclusions 183 LOAD MODELING 213.1 Introduction 213.2 Load Forecast 223.3 Load Clustering 373.4 Uncertainty and Correlation of Bus Loads 423.5 Voltage- and Frequency-Dependent Bus Loads 443.6 Conclusions 464 SYSTEM ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 494.1 Introduction 494.2 Power Flow 504.3 Probabilistic Power Flow 534.4 Optimal Power Flow (OPF) 574.5 Probabilistic Search Optimization Algorithms 644.6 Contingency Analysis and Ranking 724.7 Voltage Stability Evaluation 764.8 Transient Stability Solution 804.9 Conclusions 835 PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY EVALUATION 855.1 Introduction 855.2 Reliability Indices 865.3 Reliability Worth Assessment 905.4 Substation Adequacy Evaluation 935.5 Composite System Adequacy Evaluation 995.6 Probabilistic Voltage Stability Assessment 1075.7 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 1145.8 Conclusions 1206 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS METHODS 1236.1 Introduction 1236.2 Cost Components of Projects 1246.3 Time Value of Money and Present Value Method 1256.4 Depreciation 1316.5 Economic Assessment of Investment Projects 1376.6 Economic Assessment of Equipment Replacement 1426.7 Uncertainty Analysis in Economic Assessment 1446.8 Conclusions 1477 DATA IN PROBABILISTIC TRANSMISSION PLANNING 1497.1 Introduction 1497.2 Data for Power System Analysis 1507.3 Reliability Data in Probabilistic Planning 1637.4 Other Data 1767.5 Conclusions 1788 FUZZY TECHNIQUES FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY 1818.1 Introduction 1818.2 Fuzzy Models of System Component Outages 1828.3 Mixed Fuzzy and Probabilistic Models for Loads 1908.4 Combined Probabilistic and Fuzzy Techniques 1928.5 Example 1: Case Study Not Considering Weather Effects 1968.6 Example 2: Case Study Considering Weather Effects 2028.7 Conclusions 2129 NETWORK REINFORCEMENT PLANNING 2159.1 Introduction 2159.2 Probabilistic Planning of Bulk Power Supply System 2169.3 Probabilistic Planning of Transmission Loop Network 2259.4 Conclusions 23410 RETIREMENT PLANNING OF NETWORK COMPONENTS 23710.1 Introduction 23710.2 Retirement Timing of an Aged AC Cable 23810.3 Replacement Strategy of an HVDC Cable 24710.4 Conclusions 25711 SUBSTATION PLANNING 25911.1 Introduction 25911.2 Probabilistic Planning of Substation Confi guration 26011.3 Transformer Spare Planning 27211.4 Conclusions 28012 SINGLE-CIRCUIT SUPPLY SYSTEM PLANNING 28312.1 Introduction 28312.2 Reliability Performance of Single-Circuit Supply Systems 28512.3 Planning Method of Single-Circuit Supply Systems 28812.4 Application to Actual Utility System 29812.5 Conclusions 307APPENDIX A ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND STATISTICS 309A.1 Probability Operation Rules 309A.2 Four Important Probability Distributions 310A.3 Measures of Probability Distribution 313A.4 Parameter Estimation 314A.5 Monte Carlo Simulation 316APPENDIX B ELEMENTS OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS 321B.1 Fuzzy Sets 321B.2 Fuzzy Numbers 323B.3 Two Typical Fuzzy Numbers in Engineering Applications 325B.4 Fuzzy Relations 326APPENDIX C ELEMENTS OF RELIABILITY EVALUATION 329C.1 Basic Concepts 329C.2 Crisp Reliability Evaluation 331C.3 Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation 335References 341Index 349