How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk

Stephen Ward is Professor of Management and Deputy Head in the School of Management, University of Southampton. For more than thirty years his teaching, research and consulting activities has focussed on risk and uncertainty management. He was founding Director of Southampton's MSc Programme in Risk Management. Stephen has served on the British Standards Institute Risk Management Committee, and is a Fellow of the UK Institute of Risk Management. Recent research funded by the UK Institution of Civil Engineers addressed operational risk in major infrastructure projects and businesses. Stephen has published widely, including authorship of Risk Management Organisation and Context (Witherby, 2005), and jointly with Chris, Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making (Wiley, 2002) and Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights (Wiley, 1997 and 2003). Chris Chapman is Emeritus Professor of Management Science in the School of Management, University of Southampton. He is a former Director of the School. He was the founding chair of the Association for Project Management Specific Interest Group on Project Risk Management. He is a Past President of the Operational Research Society, and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. For more than 35 years his research has focused on risk and uncertainty management. Like Stephen, his research is grounded on extensive experience. He has worked for a number of consulting firms as an international consultant for many different industries. Chris writes from a practical but conceptually rigorous perspective. He has published extensively, including joint authorship of Management for Engineers (Wiley, 1987), Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models, Methods and Cases (Wiley, 1987), Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making (Wiley, 2002) and Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights (Wiley, 1997 and 2003).

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• Foreword to this edition by Mike Nichols ix Foreword to the second edition with an update by Tony Ridley xiForeword to the fi rst edition by Peter Wakeling xiiiPreface and overview by the authors xvAcknowledgements xxvPART I Setting the scene 11 Uncertainty in and around projects 32 Uncertainty, risk and opportunity 433 Key motives for uncertainty management 734 An overview of generic process frameworks 101PART II The generic process in one key lifecycle stage 1315 Define the project 1336 Focus the process 1537 Identify all the relevant sources of uncertainty, response options and conditions 1718 Structure all uncertainty 2159 Clarify ownership 23510 Quantify some uncertainty 25111 Evaluate all the relevant implications 289PART III The generic process in all lifecycle stages 32512 Fully integrating the strategy shaping stages 32713 Fully integrating the strategy implementation stages 365PART IV Key corporate implications 38914 Developing PUMP capability as a project 39115 Contracts and governance as frameworks for enlightened relationship management 41116 A corporate capability perspective 435References 463Glossary 473Index 479