Modelling Complex Projects

TERRY WILLIAMS is Professor and Head of the Management Science Department at Strathclyde University. After studying at Oxford and Birmingham he lectured at Strathclyde University in Operational Research before joining Engineering Consultants YARD (now BAe) where he worked for 9 years developing Project Risk Management and as Risk Manager for major projects. He re-joined Strathclyde University in 1992 and continues research and consultancy modelling on major projects, particularly as one of a team supporting multi-million dollar post-project Delay and Disruption claims in Europe and North America.Dr Williams is Editor of the Journal of the Operational Research Society. He is a frequent conference speaker, and has published widely in many academic and professional journals and books. He is MAPM, PhD and CMath.

“…provides a lot of useful information about model building in general.” (Project Net, April 2004) "...an essential resource for those required to model how a project may behave under certain circumstances..." (Jnl of the Operation Research Society, Vol 54(12), 2004)"...well conceived, well written, and well produced..." (Chemistry World, 1 Feb 2004)

• 1 This Book 1Introduction to the book and the author 1Why is there a need for this book? 3The structure of this book 7What do I need to know before I read this book? 8Conclusion 112 Projects 13What is a project? 13What are project objectives? 15Basic project management techniques 18Projects referred to in this book 23Conclusion 293 Modelling 31What is a model? 31Why do we model? 35Modelling in practice 40Validation 44Conclusion 474 What is a Complex Project? 49Introduction 49What is complexity? Structural complexity 50What is complexity? Uncertainty 55What is complexity? Summary 58Increasing complexity 59Tools and techniques—and the way ahead 625 Discrete Effects and Uncertainty 65Introduction 65Uncertainty and risk in projects 66Cost risk: additive calculations 78Time risk: effects in a network 89Analysing time risk: simulation 96Criticality and cruciality 104The three criteria and beyond 115Conclusion 1186 Discrete Effects: Collecting Data 119Introduction 119Collecting subjective data: identification 121Collecting subjective data: general principles of quantification 123Collecting subjective data: simple activity-duration models 126Effect of targets 131Conclusion 1367 The Soft Effects 137Introduction 137Some key project characteristics 139Client behaviour and external effects on the project 140Management decisions 146Project staffing 149Subjective effects within the project 151Summary and looking forward 1548 Systemic Effects 155The effects 155A brief introduction to cause mapping 157Qualitative modelling: simple compounding 158Qualitative modelling: loops 161Quantitative modelling 1639 System Dynamics Modelling 167Introduction to system dynamics 167Using system dynamics with mapping 171Elements of models 175Production elements 176Other elements 188Managerial actions 189How effects compound 193Validation 195Conclusion 19610 Hybrid Methods: The Way Forward? 199Introduction 199Adapting standard models using lessons learned from SD 200Using conventional tools to generate SD models 205Using SD and conventional models to inform each other 206Extending SD: discrete events and stochastic SD 208The need for intelligence 210Conclusion 21211 The Role of the Modeller 215Introduction 215Project management 215What makes a good modeller? 217Stages of project modelling 219Chapter summary 23012 Conclusion 233Appendix: Extension of time claims 235References 249Index 265