Extreme Events and Natural Hazards

A. Surjalal Sharma University of Maryland, College Park | UMD, UMCP, University of Maryland College Park · Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute. His main interests are Space Plasma Physics and Nonlinear Dynamics. Current efforts include magnetospheric physics, comets and stellar variability. Previously he has contributed to the theories of laboratory plasma devices at Cornell University, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, and Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar, India.

• PrefaceA. Surjalal Sharma, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, and Daniel N. Baker viiComplexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences: An OverviewA. Surjalal Sharma, Daniel N. Baker, Archana Bhattacharyya, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, Harsh K. Gupta, Vijay K. Gupta, Shaun Lovejoy, Ian G. Main, Daniel Schertzer, Hans von Storch, and Nicholas W. Watkins 1Section I: Solid EarthEarthquakes: Complexity and Extreme EventsM. R. Yoder, D. L. Turcotte, and J. B. Rundle 17Patterns of Seismicity Found in the Generalized Vicinity of a Strong Earthquake: Agreement With Common Scenarios of Instability DevelopmentM. V. Rodkin 27Characterizing Large Events and Scaling in Earthquake Models With Inhomogeneous DamageRachele Dominguez, Kristy Tiampo, C. A. Serino, and W. Klein 41Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping Before and After the 2004 Megathrust Earthquake in the Andaman-Sumatra Subduction ZoneSohini Roy, Uma Ghosh, Sugata Hazra, and J. R. Kayal 55Stress Pulse Migration by Viscoelastic Process for Long-Distance Delayed Triggering of Shocks in Gujarat, India, After the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj EarthquakeB. K. Rastogi, Pallabee Choudhury, Rakesh Dumka, K. M. Sreejith, and T. J. Majumdar 63Extreme Seismic Events in Models of Lithospheric Block-and-Fault DynamicsA. T. Ismail-Zadeh, J.-L. Le Mouël, and A. A. Soloviev 75Section II: OceansInvestigation of Past and Future Polar Low Frequency in the North AtlanticMatthias Zahn and Hans von Storch 99Variability of North Atlantic Hurricanes: Seasonal Versus Individual-Event FeaturesÁlvaro Corral and Antonio Turiel 111Large-Scale Patterns in Hurricane-Driven Shoreline ChangeEli D. Lazarus, Andrew D. Ashton, and A. Brad Murray 127Section III: AtmospherePrecipitation and River Flow: Long-Term Memory and Predictability of Extreme EventsArmin Bunde, Mikhail I. Bogachev, and Sabine Lennartz 139Extreme Events and Trends in the Indian Summer MonsoonV. Krishnamurthy 153Empirical Orthogonal Function Spectra of Extreme Temperature Variability Decoded From Tree Rings of the Western HimalayasR. K. Tiwari, R. R. Yadav, and K. P. C. Kaladhar Rao 169On the Estimation of Natural and Anthropogenic Trends in Climate RecordsS. Lennartz and A. Bunde 177Climate Subsystems: Pacemakers of Decadal Climate VariabilityAnastasios A. Tsonis 191Dynamical System Exploration of the Hurst Phenomenon in Simple Climate ModelsO. J. Mesa, V. K. Gupta, and P. E. O’Connell 209Low-Frequency Weather and the Emergence of the ClimateS. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer 231Section IV: GeospaceExtreme Space Weather: Forecasting Behavior of a Nonlinear Dynamical SystemD. N. Baker 255Supermagnetic Storms: Hazard to SocietyG. S. Lakhina, S. Alex, B. T. Tsurutani, and W. D. Gonzalez 267Development of Intermediate-Scale Structure in the Nighttime Equatorial IonosphereA. Bhattacharyya 279Complex Analysis of Polar Auroras for 1996James Wanliss and Joshua Peterson 293On Self-Similar and Multifractal Models for the Scaling of Extreme Bursty Fluctuations in Space PlasmasN. W. Watkins, B. Hnat, and S. C. Chapman 299Section V: GeneralExtreme Value and Record Statistics in Heavy-Tailed Processes With Long-Range MemoryAicko Y. Schumann, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Jörn Davidsen 315Extreme Event Recurrence Time Distributions and Long MemoryM. S. Santhanam 335Dealing With Complexity and Extreme Events Using a Bottom-Up, Resource-Based Vulnerability PerspectiveRoger A. Pielke Sr., Rob Wilby, Dev Niyogi, Faisal Hossain, Koji Dairuku, Jimmy Adegoke, George Kallos, Timothy Seastedt, and Katharine Suding 345AGU Category Index 361Index 363