Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.

• Chapter 1: The Value of Combining System and Domestic Dimensions to Explain Gray Zone Conflict Behavior Chapter 2: Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model: Combining System Incentives and Domestic Costs of Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 3: Russia’s Campaign in Abkhazia: Assessing the High Incentive and Opportunity for Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 4: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Crimea: The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Deploying the “Little Green Men” Chapter 5: Russia’s Gray Zone Activities in Odesa: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 6: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Kharkiv: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 7: Russia’s Restrained Gray Zone Coercion in the Donbas: A Function of Moderate Benefits and Uncertain Costs Chapter 8: Russia’s Militarized Campaign in Ukraine After 2022: A Continuation of an Old Pattern Chapter 9: Conclusion

Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.

• Chapter 1: The Value of Combining System and Domestic Dimensions to Explain Gray Zone Conflict Behavior Chapter 2: Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model: Combining System Incentives and Domestic Costs of Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 3: Russia’s Campaign in Abkhazia: Assessing the High Incentive and Opportunity for Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 4: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Crimea: The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Deploying the “Little Green Men” Chapter 5: Russia’s Gray Zone Activities in Odesa: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 6: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Kharkiv: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 7: Russia’s Restrained Gray Zone Coercion in the Donbas: A Function of Moderate Benefits and Uncertain Costs Chapter 8: Russia’s Militarized Campaign in Ukraine After 2022: A Continuation of an Old Pattern Chapter 9: Conclusion

Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.

• Chapter 1: The Value of Combining System and Domestic Dimensions to Explain Gray Zone Conflict Behavior Chapter 2: Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model: Combining System Incentives and Domestic Costs of Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 3: Russia’s Campaign in Abkhazia: Assessing the High Incentive and Opportunity for Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 4: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Crimea: The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Deploying the “Little Green Men” Chapter 5: Russia’s Gray Zone Activities in Odesa: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 6: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Kharkiv: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 7: Russia’s Restrained Gray Zone Coercion in the Donbas: A Function of Moderate Benefits and Uncertain Costs Chapter 8: Russia’s Militarized Campaign in Ukraine After 2022: A Continuation of an Old Pattern Chapter 9: Conclusion