Tim Congdon, CBE, Chairman, Institute of International Monetary Research and Professor, University of Buckingham, UK

‘Congdon’s sharply pointed contrast between successful and failed forecasts is convincing, his defense of an updated quantity theory of money is well-argued, and his suggestions for central banking lessons are highly relevant.’

• ContentsPreface Introduction to Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid PART I SOME BACKGROUND THEORY1 The quantity theory of money: a new restatement 2 How this restatement differs from Friedman’s 3 Can central banks run out of ammunition? The money–equities interaction channel in monetary policy 4 Why were economists’ forecasts in the Covid pandemic sobadly wrong? PART II APPLICATIONS OF THE THEORY IN THE EARLY 2020s5 The money explosion of spring 2020, as it happened 6 Was it right in 2020 to forecast that the then money explosionwould increase inflation? An analysis of the US situation 7 Applying the theory to the USA in the early 2020s 8 Applying the theory to the UK in the early 2020s 9 Does cost accountancy provide a good framework foranalysing inflation? 10 Money in the Covid-related business cycle: an analyticalnarrative and key evidence

Tim Congdon, CBE, Chairman, Institute of International Monetary Research and Professor, University of Buckingham, UK

‘Congdon’s sharply pointed contrast between successful and failed forecasts is convincing, his defense of an updated quantity theory of money is well-argued, and his suggestions for central banking lessons are highly relevant.’

• ContentsPreface Introduction to Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid PART I SOME BACKGROUND THEORY1 The quantity theory of money: a new restatement 2 How this restatement differs from Friedman’s 3 Can central banks run out of ammunition? The money–equities interaction channel in monetary policy 4 Why were economists’ forecasts in the Covid pandemic sobadly wrong? PART II APPLICATIONS OF THE THEORY IN THE EARLY 2020s5 The money explosion of spring 2020, as it happened 6 Was it right in 2020 to forecast that the then money explosionwould increase inflation? An analysis of the US situation 7 Applying the theory to the USA in the early 2020s 8 Applying the theory to the UK in the early 2020s 9 Does cost accountancy provide a good framework foranalysing inflation? 10 Money in the Covid-related business cycle: an analyticalnarrative and key evidence

Tim Congdon, CBE, Chairman, Institute of International Monetary Research and Professor, University of Buckingham, UK

‘Congdon’s sharply pointed contrast between successful and failed forecasts is convincing, his defense of an updated quantity theory of money is well-argued, and his suggestions for central banking lessons are highly relevant.’

• ContentsPreface Introduction to Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid PART I SOME BACKGROUND THEORY1 The quantity theory of money: a new restatement 2 How this restatement differs from Friedman’s 3 Can central banks run out of ammunition? The money–equities interaction channel in monetary policy 4 Why were economists’ forecasts in the Covid pandemic sobadly wrong? PART II APPLICATIONS OF THE THEORY IN THE EARLY 2020s5 The money explosion of spring 2020, as it happened 6 Was it right in 2020 to forecast that the then money explosionwould increase inflation? An analysis of the US situation 7 Applying the theory to the USA in the early 2020s 8 Applying the theory to the UK in the early 2020s 9 Does cost accountancy provide a good framework foranalysing inflation? 10 Money in the Covid-related business cycle: an analyticalnarrative and key evidence