The Price of Oil

Roberto F. Aguilera is an adjunct research fellow at Curtin University, Australia, and an associate of Servipetrol Ltd, Canada. He has participated in numerous energy studies, including with the World Petroleum Council, US National Petroleum Council, and UN Expert Group on Resource Classification. Marian Radetzki is Professor of Economics at Luleå University of Technology, Sweden. He has held visiting professorships at Colorado School of Mines, and at Pontificia Catholic University of Chile, researching on minerals and energy. In the 1970s, Professor Radetzki worked as Chief Economist at the International Copper Cartel, and has undertaken numerous consultancies over the years.

'This cheerfully iconoclastic analysis of the past, present and future of the petroleum industry makes a compelling read. Whilst some of its conclusions will be undoubtedly challenged as contradicting the conventional wisdom, it carefully sets out their underlying logic and assumptions. That applies as much to the first part that anatomises the behaviour of crude oil prices over the past forty years as to the subsequent discussion of the shale oil revolution and its implications. Although the authors' own views of the future are clear they are careful to stress the uncertainties and are at pains to provide a range of possible futures. The book should be required reading not just for specialists but for all those involved with the petroleum industry and energy policy, however tangentially.' Phillip Crowson, Honorary Professor and Professorial Research Fellow, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee

• Acknowledgements; 1. Introduction and overview; Part I. Oil's Extraordinary Price History: How Can It Be Explained?: 2. The price of oil since the early 1970s: observations and implications; 3. OPEC and its behavior cannot explain oil's price performance; 4. Can depletion and rising costs explain the price developments?; 5. State ownership, government greed and the slowdown of capacity expansion; 6. The resource curse and capacity destruction; Part II. The Shale and Conventional Oil Revolutions: Low Prices Ahead: 7. The shale revolution: US achievements to date and envisaged impacts on global energy markets; 8. Longevity of US shale oil: have we only seen the beginning?; 9. The conventional oil revolution; 10. Environmental issues arising from the revolutions; 11. Will the revolutions spread globally?; 12. A substantial long-term price fall in store; Part III. Global Implications for the Macroeconomy, the Environment and for Politics: 13. Impact on macroeconomy and trade balances; 14. Climate policy with low oil prices; 15. Political repercussions; Conclusions: 16. What have we learnt?; References; Index.