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      1. Ekonomi och Ledarskap
      2. Ledarskapsböcker
      3. Projektledning

      Cost Estimation

      Methods and Tools

      AvGregory K. Mislick,Daniel A. Nussbaum

      Inbunden, Engelska, 2015

      Del i serien Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science

      1 092 kr

      Tillfälligt slut

      Fler format och utgåvor

      Inbunden

      1 358 kr

      Beskrivning

      Presents an accessible approach to the cost estimation tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support analytical and cost decisionsWritten with an easy-to-understand approach, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools provides comprehensive coverage of the quantitative techniques needed by professional cost estimators and for those wanting to learn about this vibrant career field. Featuring the underlying mathematical and analytical principles of cost estimation, the book focuses on the tools and methods used to predict the research and development, production, and operating and support costs for successful cost estimation in industrial, business, and manufacturing processes.The book begins with a detailed historical perspective and key terms of the cost estimating field in order to develop the necessary background prior to implementing the presented quantitative methods. The book proceeds to fundamental cost estimation methods utilized in the field of cost estimation, including working with inflation indices, regression analysis, learning curves, analogies, cost factors, and wrap rates. With a step-by-step introduction to the practicality of cost estimation and the available resources for obtaining relevant data, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools also features: Various cost estimating tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support business decisionsMultiple questions at the end of each chapter to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the discussed methods and techniquesAn overview of the software used in cost estimation, as well as an introduction to the application of risk and uncertainty analysisA Foreword from Dr. Douglas A. Brook, a professor in the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School, who spent many years working in the Department of Defense acquisition environmentCost Estimation: Methods and Tools is an excellent reference for academics and practitioners in decision science, operations research, operations management, business, and systems and industrial engineering, as well as a useful guide in support of professional cost estimation training and certification courses for practitioners. The book is also appropriate for graduate-level courses in operations research, operations management, engineering economics, and manufacturing and/or production processes.

      Produktinformation

      • Utgivningsdatum:2015-06-19
      • Mått:165 x 241 x 28 mm
      • Vikt:454 g
      • Format:Inbunden
      • Språk:Engelska
      • Serie:Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science
      • Antal sidor:352
      • Förlag:John Wiley & Sons Inc
      • ISBN:9781118536131

      Utforska kategorier

      • Projektledning inom Ekonomi och Ledarskap
      • Företagsekonomi inom Ekonomi och Ledarskap

      Mer om författaren

      Gregory K. Mislick is Senior Lecturer in the Department of Operations Research and Program Manager for the Masters Degree Program in Cost Estimating and Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). A retired U.S. Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel aviator and past associate dean of the Graduate School of Operational and Information Sciences at NPS, his research interests includes life cycle cost estimating and modeling, probability and statistics, regression analysis, learning curves, and optimization.Daniel A. Nussbaum, PhD, is Visiting Professor in the Department of Operations Research at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. With over 30 years of professional experience providing financial estimating and analysis services to senior levels of the U.S. Federal government, Dr. Nussbaum's research interests includes cost/benefit analyses, life cycle cost estimating and modeling, and financial modeling.

      Recensioner i media

      "This book is a manual of how to effectively internally manage a company, and maximise operational external efficiency of a contractor. On this basis it is essential reading for anyone in a decision-taking role, even if only a relatively minor role in bringing productions to market." (Chromatographia 2016)

      Innehållsförteckning

      • Foreword xiiiAbout the Authors xviiPreface xixAcronyms xxiii1 “Looking Back: Reflections on Cost Estimating” 1Reference 102 Introduction to Cost Estimating 112.1 Introduction 112.2 What is Cost Estimating? 112.3 What Are the Characteristics of a Good Cost Estimate? 132.4 Importance of Cost Estimating in DoD and in Congress. Why Do We Do Cost Estimating? 142.4.1 Importance of Cost Estimating to Congress 162.5 An Overview of the DoD Acquisition Process 172.6 Acquisition Categories (ACATs) 232.7 Cost Estimating Terminology 24Summary 30References 31Applications and Questions 313 Non-DoD Acquisition and the Cost Estimating Process 323.1 Introduction 323.2 Who Practices Cost Estimation? 323.3 The Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the 12-Step Process 333.4 Cost Estimating in Other Non-DoD Agencies and Organizations 383.4.1 The Intelligence Community (IC) 383.4.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 383.4.3 The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 393.4.4 Commercial Firms 393.4.5 Cost Estimating Book of Knowledge (CEBOK) 403.4.6 Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs) 413.4.7 The Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) 413.4.8 The Mitre Corporation 423.4.9 Rand Corporation 423.5 The Cost Estimating Process 433.6 Definition and Planning. Knowing the Purpose of the Estimate 433.6.1 Definition and Planning. Defining the System 473.6.2 Definition and Planning. Establishing the Ground Rules and Assumptions 483.6.3 Definition and Planning. Selecting the Estimating Approach 493.6.4 Definition and Planning. Putting the Team Together 513.7 Data Collection 523.8 Formulation of the Estimate 523.9 Review and Documentation 533.10 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 533.10.1 Program Work Breakdown Structure 533.10.2 Military-Standard (MIL-STD) 881C 563.11 Cost Element Structure (CES) 56Summary 58References 59Applications and Questions 594 Data Sources 614.1 Introduction 614.2 Background and Considerations to Data Collection 614.2.1 Cost Data 634.2.2 Technical Data 634.2.3 Programmatic Data 644.2.4 Risk Data 644.3 Cost Reports and Earned Value Management (EVM) 654.3.1 Contractor Cost Data Reporting (CCDR) 654.3.2 Contract Performance Report (CPR) 664.3.3 EVM Example 704.4 Cost Databases 744.4.1 Defense Cost and Resource Center (DCARC) 754.4.2 Operating and Support Costs Databases 754.4.3 Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval (DAMIR) 76Summary 76Reference 77Applications and Questions 775 Data Normalization 785.1 Introduction 785.2 Background to Data Normalization 785.3 Normalizing for Content 805.4 Normalizing for Quantity 815.5 Normalizing for Inflation 835.6 DoD Appropriations and Background 875.7 Constant Year Dollars (CY$) 885.8 Base Year Dollars (BY$) 905.9 DoD Inflation Indices 915.10 Then Year Dollars (TY$) 955.11 Using the Joint Inflation Calculator (JIC) 975.12 Expenditure (Outlay) Profile 99Summary 103References 103Applications and Questions 1036 Statistics for Cost Estimators 1056.1 Introduction 1056.2 Background to Statistics 1056.3 Margin of Error 1066.4 Taking a Sample 1096.5 Measures of Central Tendency 1106.6 Dispersion Statistics 1136.7 Coefficient of Variation 117Summary 119References 119General Reference 119Applications and Questions 1197 Linear Regression Analysis 1217.1 Introduction 1217.2 Home Buying Example 1217.3 Regression Background and Nomenclature 1267.4 Evaluating a Regression 1327.5 Standard Error (SE) 1337.6 Coefficient of Variation (CV) 1347.7 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 1357.8 Coefficient of Determination (R2) 1377.9 F-Statistic and t-Statistics 1387.10 Regression Hierarchy 1407.11 Staying Within the Range of Your Data 1427.12 Treatment of Outliers 1437.12.1 Handling Outliers with Respect to X (The Independent Variable Data) 1437.12.2 Handling Outliers with Respect to Y (The Dependent Variable Data) 1447.13 Residual Analysis 1467.14 Assumptions of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression 149Summary 149Reference 150Applications and Questions 1508 Multi-Variable Linear Regression Analysis 1528.1 Introduction 1528.2 Background of Multi-Variable Linear Regression 1528.3 Home Prices 1548.4 Multi-Collinearity (MC) 1588.5 Detecting Multi-Collinearity (MC) Method #1: Widely Varying Regression Slope Coefficients 1598.6 Detecting Multi-Collinearity Method #2: Correlation Matrix 1608.7 Multi-Collinearity Example #1: Home Prices 1618.8 Determining Statistical Relationships between Independent Variables 1638.9 Multi-Collinearity Example #2: Weapon Systems 1648.10 Conclusions of Multi-Collinearity 1678.11 Multi-Variable Regression Guidelines 168Summary 169Applications and Questions 1709 Intrinsically Linear Regression 1729.1 Introduction 1729.2 Background of Intrinsically Linear Regression 1729.3 The Multiplicative Model 1739.4 Data Transformation 1749.5 Interpreting the Regression Results 178Summary 178Reference 179Applications and Questions 17910 Learning Curves: Unit Theory 18010.1 Introduction 18010.2 Learning Curve Scenario #1 18010.3 Cumulative AverageTheory Overview 18210.4 UnitTheory Overview 18210.5 UnitTheory 18510.6 Estimating Lot Costs 18810.7 Fitting a Curve Using Lot Data 19110.7.1 Lot Midpoint 19210.7.2 Average Unit Cost (AUC) 19410.8 UnitTheory Final Example (Example 10.5) 19710.9 Alternative LMP and Lot Cost Calculations 200Summary 202References 202Applications and Questions 20211 Learning Curves: Cumulative Average Theory 20411.1 Introduction 20411.2 Background of Cumulative AverageTheory (CAT) 20411.3 Cumulative AverageTheory 20611.4 Estimating Lot Costs 21011.5 Cumulative AverageTheory Final Example 21011.6 UnitTheory vs. Cumulative AverageTheory 21411.6.1 Learning Curve Selection 215Summary 216Applications and Questions 21612 Learning Curves: Production Breaks/Lost Learning 21812.1 Introduction 21812.2 The Lost Learning Process 21912.3 Production Break Scenario 21912.4 The Anderlohr Method 22012.5 Production Breaks Example 22112.6 The Retrograde Method Example 12.1 (Part 2) 224Summary 229References 229Applications and Questions 23013 Wrap Rates and Step-Down Functions 23113.1 Introduction 23113.2 Wrap Rate Overview 23113.3 Wrap Rate Components 23213.3.1 Direct Labor Rate 23313.3.2 Overhead Rate 23313.3.3 Other Costs 23413.4 Wrap Rate Final Example (Example 13.2) 23513.5 Summary of Wrap Rates 23613.6 Introduction to Step-Down Functions 23613.7 Step-Down Function Theory 23713.8 Step-Down Function Example 13.1 23813.9 Summary of Step-Down Functions 240Reference 240Applications and Questions 24014 Cost Factors and the Analogy Technique 24214.1 Introduction 24214.2 Cost Factors Scenario 24214.3 Cost Factors 24314.4 Which Factor to Use? 24614.5 Cost Factors Handbooks 24614.6 Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC) 24714.7 Summary of Cost Factors 24814.8 Introduction to the Analogy Technique 24814.9 Background of Analogy 24914.10 Methodology 25014.11 Example 14.1 Part 1: The Historical WBS 25014.12 Example 14.1 Part 2: The New WBS 25314.13 Summary of the Analogy Technique 255Reference 256Applications and Questions 25615 Software Cost Estimation 25715.1 Introduction 25715.2 Background on Software Cost Estimation 25715.3 What is Software? 25815.4 The WBS Elements in a typical Software Cost Estimating Task 25915.5 Software Costing Characteristics and Concerns 26015.6 Measuring Software Size: Source Lines of Code (SLOC) and Function Points (FP) 26115.6.1 Source Lines of Code: (SLOC) 26115.6.2 Function Point (FP) Analysis 26315.7 The Software Cost Estimating Process 26415.8 Problems with Software Cost Estimating: Cost Growth 26515.9 Commercial Software Availability 26715.9.1 COTS in the Software Environment 26815.10 Post Development Software Maintenance Costs 268Summary 269References 26916 Cost Benefit Analysis and Risk and Uncertainty 27016.1 Introduction 27016.2 Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Net Present Value (NPV) Overview 27016.3 Time Value of Money 27316.4 Example 16.1. Net Present Value 27716.5 Risk and Uncertainty Overview 28116.6 Considerations for Handling Risk and Uncertainty 28316.7 How do the Uncertainties Affect our Estimate? 28416.8 Cumulative Cost and Monte Carlo Simulation 28716.9 Suggested Resources on Risk and Uncertainty Analysis 289Summary 290References 290Applications and Questions 29017 Epilogue: The Field of Cost Estimating and Analysis 291Answers to Questions 295Index 309
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