Hydrometeorological Hazards

Philippe Quevauviller began his career as a researcher in chemical oceanography and holds 2 PhDs and an HDR. He then joined the European Commission as a Research Programme and Policy Officer. He is also Associate Professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussels.

"Although the book cannot be comprehensive on this vast research field of hydrometeorological hazards at the interface of science and policy, it does give a proficient overview on the topic and selected hydrometeorological extremes. I very much liked reading this well-written book and am looking forward to the next titles within this series." (Environmental Earth Sciences 2015)

• Series Foreword xiPreface xiiiThe Series Editor – Philippe Quevauviller xvList of Contributors xviiPART ONE: SETTING THE SCENE 11.1 Strengthened Resilience from Historic Experience. European Societies Confronted with Hydrometeors in the Sixteenth to Twentieth Centuries 3Emmanuel Garnier1.1.1 Introduction 31.1.2 Five centuries of droughts 41.1.2.1 Historic material and methods of evaluation 41.1.2.2 A comparative approach to historic European droughts 71.1.3 The European coast confronted with surges: A first ever? 121.1.3.1 The French coasts 131.1.3.2 European comparison 131.1.3.3 Memory of the big floods in Northern Europe 151.1.4 A memory of risk or a culture of survival? 171.1.4.1 Living with droughts in the Cyclades: The Syros island 171.1.4.2 The Atlantic flood of 1937 as a revelation of coastal weaknesses 191.1.4.3 The lessons of history regarding impact strength 221.1.5 Conclusion 24References 241.2 Current Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events 27Richard Harding, Nick Reynard and Alison Kay1.2.1 Introduction 271.2.2 Global water balance, past and future 281.2.2.1 Humidity and evaporation 281.2.2.2 Precipitation 291.2.2.3 River run-off 291.2.3 Global extremes – Rainfall, floods and droughts 301.2.3.1 Precipitation 301.2.3.2 Storminess 301.2.3.3 Droughts 311.2.3.4 Floods 321.2.4 Future global predictions 331.2.5 Regional drought and water resources 351.2.5.1 Drought in the twentieth century 351.2.5.2 Twenty-first century drought 371.2.6 Case study: Science to support policy for flood management under climate change 391.2.7 Adaptation planning 411.2.8 Concluding remarks 43References 431.3 Features Common to Different Hydrometeorological Events and Knowledge Integration 49Barbara Zanuttigh1.3.1 Introduction 491.3.2 Extreme hydrometeorological events and disasters: An increasing trend 501.3.3 Integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation 521.3.4 Predicting disasters: Dealing with uncertainties and scales 561.3.5 Better understanding system exposure at the hazard 581.3.6 Resilience: From concept to operation 611.3.7 Learning from experience 631.3.8 Risk governance: Responsibility and participation 671.3.9 Risk communication 701.3.10 A roadmap towards a sustainable future 72References 751.4 Science and Policy Interfacing 83Philippe Quevauviller1.4.1 Introduction 831.4.2 Taking account of the knowledge base 831.4.3 Concept of science and policy interfacing 841.4.4 Matching research with policy needs 851.4.4.1 Type of research 851.4.4.2 Short analysis of drawbacks 861.4.5 Research–policy interactions 861.4.5.1 Interactions with the scientific community 861.4.5.2 Synthesis needs 871.4.5.3 Exchange platforms 881.4.6 Conclusions 88References 90PART TWO: POLICY SETTINGS 912.1 When Science Meets Policy: Enhancing Governance and Management of Disaster Risks 93Demetrio Innocenti2.1.1 Science and disaster risk management 932.1.2 Knowledge-based policy 952.1.3 The science–policy interface in practice 962.1.4 Evidence-based disaster risk policies 992.1.5 Climate research and disaster economics: Two scientific pillars of governance of disaster risks 1022.1.6 Conclusions 104References 1062.2 Hydrometeorological Extremes and the Science–policy Interface: IPCC 109Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz2.2.1 Introduction 1092.2.2 IPCC at the interface of science and policy 1102.2.3 Evolution of IPCC over 25 years 1122.2.4 IPCC SREX messages in a nutshell 1142.2.4.1 Observations 1172.2.4.2 Projections 1182.2.4.3 Managing the risk of hydrometeorological extremes 1202.2.5 Final remarks – AR5 is there 120Acknowledgements 121References 1212.3 A Snapshot of EU and International Policies Relevant to Hydrometeorological Events 123Philippe Quevauviller2.3.1 Introduction – A complex policy framework 1232.3.2 Climate change impacts on water 1242.3.3 Policy background 1252.3.4 International policies 1262.3.5 EU water policies 1292.3.5.1 The water framework directive 1292.3.5.2 WFD and climate change 1302.3.5.3 The flood directive 1322.3.5.4 The communication on drought 1322.3.6 Climate adaptation strategy 1332.3.7 Conclusions 134References 135PART THREE: OUTLINE OF SCIENTIFIC FEATURES 1373.1 Hydroinformatics and Its Role in Flood Management 139Philippe Gourbesville3.1.1 Background 1393.1.2 Flood management in water-related activities 1393.1.3 Why hydroinformatics? 1423.1.4 Towards integrated flood management 1443.1.5 Hydroinformatics and floods 1463.1.6 Flood maps production 1483.1.6.1 Producing the hydrograph 1493.1.6.2 Hydraulic models 1503.1.6.3 Parameter estimation in one-dimensional flow models 1523.1.6.4 Parameter estimation in two-dimensional flow models 1533.1.6.5 Validation of results 1543.1.7 Real-time systems for decisions support 1563.1.8 Emerging trends for higher efficiency 1593.1.9 High resolution data and high resolution hydraulic modelling 1593.1.10 From centralised to distributed and ubiquitous architecture 1633.1.11 Perspectives in conclusion 167Acknowledgement 167References 1673.2 Drought: How to be Prepared for the Hazard? 171Henny A.J. Van Lanen3.2.1 Introduction 1713.2.2 Drought: Generating processes and identification 1733.2.3 Trends in drought 1773.2.3.1 Trends in observed drought 1773.2.3.2 Trends in simulated historic drought 1783.2.3.3 Future drought 1813.2.4 Monitoring, management and early warning 1893.2.5 Drought impacts and policy 191Acknowledgements 196References 1963.3 Drought in the Light of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Area 203Ana Iglesias and Luis Garrote3.3.1 Introduction 2033.3.2 The limits of rainfall 2043.3.2.1 Drought and water scarcity: Overlapping challenges in the region 2043.3.3 Estimating drought vulnerability 2083.3.3.1 Underlying causes of drought risk 2083.3.3.2 A drought vulnerability index 2113.3.4 From drought vulnerability to drought management 2133.3.4.1 Policies, actions and examples 2133.3.4.2 Linking indicators to drought management actions 2143.3.5 Looking into the future 2163.3.5.1 Climate change scenarios 2163.3.5.2 Higher drought risk 2173.3.5.3 Changes in water availability 2183.3.5.4 Climate change as an opportunity to revise drought management 2183.3.5.5 Conservation-oriented policies 2203.3.6 Conclusions 222Acknowledgements 223References 2233.4 Prediction of Storm Impacts on Beach and Dune Systems 227Paolo Ciavola, Oscar Ferreira, Ap Van Dongeren, Jaap Van Thiel de Vries, Clara Armaroli and Mitchell Harley3.4.1 Introduction 2273.4.2 Coastal storm definitions 2283.4.2.1 Meteorological approaches to assessing coastal storm severity 2293.4.2.2 Engineering approaches to assessing coastal storm severity 2313.4.3 The storm impact scale 2313.4.3.1 Swash regime 2323.4.3.2 Collision regime 2333.4.3.3 Overwash regime 2333.4.3.4 Inundation regime 2343.4.4 Analytical methods of hazard definition 2343.4.5 Modelling of storm impacts 2373.4.5.1 Models based on the equilibrium profile theory 2383.4.5.2 Process-based models 2393.4.6 Storm impact indicators, early warning systems and disaster risk reduction 2423.4.7 Conclusions 245Acknowledgements 246References 246PART FOUR: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS 2534.1 Assessing the Costs of Natural Hazards – State of the Art and the Way Forward 255Volker Meyer, Reimund Schwarze, Nina Becker, Vasileios Markantonis, Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, Laurens M. Bouwer, Philip Bubeck, Paolo Ciavola, Elisabetta Genovese, Colin Green, Stephane Hallegatte, Heidi Kreibich, Quentin Lequeux, Ivana Logar, Elissaios Papyrakis, Clemens Pfurtscheller, Jennifer Poussin, Valentin Przyluski, Annegret H. Thieken and Christophe Viavattene4.1.1 Introduction 2564.1.2 State of the art of cost assessment for natural hazards – An overview 2604.1.2.1 Direct costs 2614.1.2.2 Business interruption costs 2654.1.2.3 Indirect costs 2674.1.2.4 Intangible (non-market) costs 2704.1.2.5 Risk mitigation costs 2734.1.3 Conclusions and the way forward 277References 2824.2 Resilience and Adaptation to Hydrometeorological Hazards 291Hugh Deeming, Maureen Fordham and Åsa Gerger Swartling4.2.1 Introduction 2914.2.2 Resilience 2924.2.2.1 Psychological approaches to resilience 2924.2.2.2 Social-ecological systems (SES) 2934.2.2.3 Organisations and infrastructure 2954.2.3 Discussion 2974.2.3.1 Community 3014.2.3.2 Adaptation 3034.2.3.3 Resilience to hydrometeorological extremes 3054.2.3.4 The sustainable livelihoods approach (SLA) 3054.2.3.5 Pilot study location and event: Cockermouth, Cumbria, UK 3074.2.3.6 Comparison of two small businesses in Cockermouth, Cumbria 3074.2.4 Conclusions 309Acknowledgements 309References 309PART FIVE: CONCLUSIONS 3175 Conclusions, Outlook 319Philippe Quevauviller5.1 Contextual developments 3195.2 Scientific developments 3205.3 Outlook 3205.3.1 Strengths 3205.3.2 Weaknesses 3205.3.3 Threats 3215.3.4 Opportunities 321Index 323