NED DAVIS is Senior Investment Strategist and founder of Ned Davis Research Group (NDRG) and is widely quoted by media and Wall Street sources. He has been professionally involved in the stock market for over 40 years.

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• Foreword xiPreface xvAcknowledgments xviiChapter 1 Being Right or Making Money 1Ned DavisBad News about Forecasting (Being Right) 1Good News about Making Money 5Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success 6The Four Real Keys to Making Money 7The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes 12Stories of Five Successful Winners 14Making Our Own Reality 19The Ned Davis Research Response to All This 22Timing Models 23What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It 29History and Risk Management 32The Rest of the Book 36Notes 39Chapter 2 The Model‐Building Process 41Ned DavisThe Model‐Building Process 41Where to Start: Model Inputs 41Sentiment and Valuation Indicators 42Monetary Indicators 43Economic Indicators 47Internal Indicators 47Moving Averages 48Crossings and Slopes 49Momentum 54Putting Indicators Together 55Conclusion 57Chapter 3 A Stock Market Model 59Loren FlathA Stock Market Model 59Overview of the Fab Five 63Tape Component 64The Final Tape Component 73The Sentiment Component 74Sentiment Summary 87The Monetary Model 87Monetary Component Summary 96Fab Five Combo Component 97Combo Model Summary 103Summing Up the Fab Five 104How We Use the Fab Five 104Chapter 4 A Simple Model for Bonds 105Loren FlathA Slight Modification 109Summary 113Chapter 5 Potential Bear Market in 2014; Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity 115Ned DavisPreparing for a (Say, 20 Percent) Bear Market 115Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish 115Other Sentiment Indicators 120Valuation Problems 124Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullback—Follow the Leaders 130More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks 132Four‐Year Presidential Cycle Risks 136Macro Backdrop: Debt Bubble Update 139Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014 147What Do Demographics Say? 151Chapter 6 The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications 155Alejandra GrindalGlobal Population View 155Why Is the Population Getting Older? 159Demographic Developments 161Implications of Aging Populations 165Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce 172Conclusion 177Chapter 7 United States Energy Independence –A Game-Changer 179John LaForgeWhat the United States Consumes 181The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independence—Oil and Transportation 183Choosing the Right Fuel 195Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer 198Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off 199How Far Ned Could Go 200Nat Gas—An Indirect Play on Electric 202The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources 209A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence 212Conclusion 215About the Authors 217About the Contributors 219Index 223

NED DAVIS is Senior Investment Strategist and founder of Ned Davis Research Group (NDRG) and is widely quoted by media and Wall Street sources. He has been professionally involved in the stock market for over 40 years.

Select Guide Rating

• Foreword xiPreface xvAcknowledgments xviiChapter 1 Being Right or Making Money 1Ned DavisBad News about Forecasting (Being Right) 1Good News about Making Money 5Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success 6The Four Real Keys to Making Money 7The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes 12Stories of Five Successful Winners 14Making Our Own Reality 19The Ned Davis Research Response to All This 22Timing Models 23What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It 29History and Risk Management 32The Rest of the Book 36Notes 39Chapter 2 The Model‐Building Process 41Ned DavisThe Model‐Building Process 41Where to Start: Model Inputs 41Sentiment and Valuation Indicators 42Monetary Indicators 43Economic Indicators 47Internal Indicators 47Moving Averages 48Crossings and Slopes 49Momentum 54Putting Indicators Together 55Conclusion 57Chapter 3 A Stock Market Model 59Loren FlathA Stock Market Model 59Overview of the Fab Five 63Tape Component 64The Final Tape Component 73The Sentiment Component 74Sentiment Summary 87The Monetary Model 87Monetary Component Summary 96Fab Five Combo Component 97Combo Model Summary 103Summing Up the Fab Five 104How We Use the Fab Five 104Chapter 4 A Simple Model for Bonds 105Loren FlathA Slight Modification 109Summary 113Chapter 5 Potential Bear Market in 2014; Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity 115Ned DavisPreparing for a (Say, 20 Percent) Bear Market 115Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish 115Other Sentiment Indicators 120Valuation Problems 124Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullback—Follow the Leaders 130More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks 132Four‐Year Presidential Cycle Risks 136Macro Backdrop: Debt Bubble Update 139Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014 147What Do Demographics Say? 151Chapter 6 The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications 155Alejandra GrindalGlobal Population View 155Why Is the Population Getting Older? 159Demographic Developments 161Implications of Aging Populations 165Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce 172Conclusion 177Chapter 7 United States Energy Independence –A Game-Changer 179John LaForgeWhat the United States Consumes 181The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independence—Oil and Transportation 183Choosing the Right Fuel 195Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer 198Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off 199How Far Ned Could Go 200Nat Gas—An Indirect Play on Electric 202The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources 209A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence 212Conclusion 215About the Authors 217About the Contributors 219Index 223