Food Security and Climate Change

About the Editors SHYAM S. YADAV, Freelance International Consultant in Agriculture, Manav Memorial Trust/ Manav Foundation, Vikaspuri, New Delhi, India and Manav Mahal International School, Baghpat, Uttar Pradesh, India. ROBERT J. REDDEN, RJR Agricultural Consultants, Horsham, Victoria, Australia. JERRY L. HATFIELD, USDA-ARS National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, Ames, Iowa, USA. ANDREAS W. EBERT, Freelance International Consultant in Agriculture and Agrobiodiversity, Schwaebisch Gmuend, Germany. DANNY HUNTER, Senior Scientist, Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems Initiative, Bioversity International, Rome, Italy and Adjunct Researcher, Plant and Agricultural Biosciences Centre (PABC), National University of Ireland, Galway (NUIG).

• List of Contributors xvii1 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security 1Shyam S. Yadav, V. S. Hegde, Abdul Basir Habibi,Mahendra Dia, and Suman Verma1.1 Introduction 11.1.1 Climate Change and Agriculture 31.1.2 Impact of Dioxide on Crop Productivity 41.1.3 Impact of Ozone on Crop Productivity 51.1.4 Impact of Temperature and a Changed Climate on Crop Productivity 61.2 Climate Change and Food Security 61.2.1 Climate Change and Food Availability 71.2.2 Climate Change and Stability of Food Production 81.2.3 Climate Change and Access to Food 81.2.4 Climate Change and Food Utilization 91.3 Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agriculture, Crop Production, and Livestock 101.3.1 Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, and Resilience 111.3.2 Mitigation 121.3.3 Adaptation and Resilience 121.3.4 Policies, Incentives, Measures, and Mechanisms for Mitigation and Adaptation 131.4 Impact of Divergent & Associated Technologies on Food Security under Climate Change 141.4.1 Integrated Pest Management (IPM) 151.4.2 Technological Options for Boosting Sustainable Agriculture Production 151.4.3 Mechanization in Agriculture Sector 161.4.4 Food Processing and Quality Agro-Products Processing 161.4.5 Planning, Implementing and Evaluating Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder Farming Systems171.5 The Government of India Policies and Programs for Food Security 171.6 Conclusions 18References 192 Changes in Food Supply and Demand by 2050 25Timothy S. Thomas2.1 Introduction 252.2 Model Description 262.3 Model Assumptions 262.3.1 Economic and Demographic Assumptions 262.4 Climate Assumptions 282.5 Results 302.5.1 Production 302.6 Underutilized Crops 382.7 Consumption 382.8 Trade and Prices 422.9 Food Security 462.10 Conclusion 48References 503 Crop Responses to Rising Atmospheric [CO2] and Global Climate Change 51Pauline Lemonnier and Elizabeth A. Ainsworth3.1 Introduction 513.1.1 Rising Atmospheric [CO2] and Global Climate Change 513.1.2 Measuring Crop Responses to Rising [CO2] 533.1.3 Physiological Responses to Rising [CO2] 543.2 Crop Production Responses to Rising [CO2] 583.2.1 Effects of Rising [CO2] on Food Quality 593.2.2 Strategies to Improve Crop Production in a High CO2 World 613.2.2.1 Genetic Variability in Elevated [CO2] Responsiveness:The Potential and Challenges for Breeding 623.2.2.2 Strategies for Genetic Engineering 63Acknowledgements 64References 644 Adaptation of Cropping Systems to Drought under Climate Change (Examples from Australia and Spain) 71Garry J. O’Leary, James G. Nuttall, Robert J. Redden, Carlos Cantero-Martinez,and M. InesMinguez4.1 Introduction 714.2 Water Supply 724.2.1 Changing Patterns of Rainfall 724.2.2 Rotations, Fallow, and Soil Management 744.3 Interactions of Water with Temperature, CO2 and Nutrients 774.3.1 High Temperature Response of Wheat 774.3.2 High Temperature and Grain Quality of Wheat 794.3.3 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Crop Growth 794.3.4 Elevated Atmospheric CO2 and Grain Quality 804.4 Matching Genetic Resources to The Environment and the Challenge to Identify the Ideal Phenotype 804.5 Changing Climate and Strategies to Increase Crop Water Supply and Use 824.6 Beyond Australia and Spain 844.7 Conclusions 85Acknowledgments 85References 865 Combined Impacts of Carbon, Temperature, and Drought to Sustain Food Production 95Jerry L. Hatfield5.1 Introduction 955.1.1 Need for Food to Feed the Nine Billion by 2050 955.2 Changing Climate 965.3 Carbon Dioxide And Plant Growth 975.3.1 Responses of Plants to Increased CO2 975.3.2 Effect of Increased CO2 on Roots 1005.3.3 Effect of Increased CO2 on Quality 1005.4 Temperature Effects on Plant Growth 1025.4.1 Responses of Plants to High Temperatures 1025.4.2 Mechanisms of Temperature Effect on Plants 1045.5 Water Effects on Plant Growth 1065.5.1 Mechanisms of Water Stress 1075.6 Interactions of Carbon Dioxide, Temperature, And Water in a Changing Climate 108References 1106 Scope, Options and Approaches to Climate Change 119S. Seneweera, Kiruba Shankari Arun-Chinnappa, and Naoki Hirotsu6.1 Introduction 1196.2 Impact of CO2 and climate stress on growth and yield of agricultural crop 1206.3 The Primary Mechanisms of Plants Respond to Elevated CO2 1216.4 Interaction of Rising CO2 With Other Environmental Factors – Temperature And Water 1216.5 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Quality 1226.6 Climate Change, Crop Improvement, and Future Food Security 1236.7 Intra-specific Variation in Crop Response to Elevated [CO2] – Current Germplasm Versus Wild Relatives 1246.8 Identification of New QTLs for Plant Breeding 1246.9 Association Mapping for Large Germplasm Screening 1256.10 Genetic Engineering of CO2 Responsive Traits 1256.11 Conclusions 126References 1277 Mitigation and Adaptation Approaches to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change 131Li Ling and Xuxiao Zong7.1 Technology and its Approaches Options to Climate Change in Agriculture System 1327.1.1 Adjusting Agricultural Farming Systems and Organization, with Changes in Cropping Systems 1337.1.2 Changing Farm Production Activities 1357.1.3 Developing Biotechnology, Breeding New Varieties to Adapt to Climate Change 1357.1.4 Developing Information Systems, and Establishing a Disaster PreventionSystem 1367.1.5 Strengthening the Agricultural Infrastructure, Adjusting Management Measures 1377.2 Development and Implementation of Techniques to Combat Climatic Changes 1377.2.1 Improving Awareness of Potential Implications of Climate Change Among All Parties Involved (from grassroots level to decision makers) 1387.2.2 Enhancing Research on Typical Technology 1387.2.2.1 Enhancing Research on Typical Technology for Different Areas 1387.2.2.2 Enhancing Research on Food Quality Under Climate Change 1387.2.2.3 Enhancing Research on Legumes and Its Biological Nitrogen Fixation 1397.2.3 Developing Climate-Crop Modelling as an Aid to Constructing Scenarios 1407.2.4 Development and Assessment Efforts of Adaptation Technology 140References 1418 Role of Plant Breeding to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change 145Rodomiro Ortiz8.1 Introduction 1458.2 Sources of Genetic Diversity and their Screening for Stress Adaptation 1468.2.1 Crop-related Species 1468.2.2 Domestic Genetic Diversity 1468.2.3 Crossbreeding 1478.2.4 Pre-breeding 1488.2.5 Biotechnology and Modeling as Aids for Breeding Cultivars 1488.3 Physiology-facilitated Breeding and Phenotyping 1498.3.1 Abiotic Stress Adaptation and Resource-use Efficiency 1508.3.2 Precise and HighThroughput Phenotyping 1508.4 DNA-markers for Trait Introgression and Omics-led Breeding 1518.5 Transgenic Breeding 152References 1539 Role of Plant Genetic Resources in Food Security 159Robert J. Redden, Hari Upadyaya, Sangam L. Dwivedi, Vincent Vadez,Michael Abberton, and Ahmed Amri9.1 Introduction 1599.2 Climate Change and Agriculture 1609.3 Adjusting Crop Distribution 1609.4 Within Crop Genetic Diversity for Abiotic Stress Tolerances 1609.5 Broadening the Available Genetic Diversity Within Crops 1619.6 Crop Wild Relatives as a Novel Source Of Genetic Diversity 1619.7 Genomics, Genetic Variation and Breeding for Tolerance of Abiotic Stresses 1629.8 Under-utilised Species 1639.9 Genetic Resources in the Low Rainfall Temperate Crop Zone 1649.10 Forage and Range Species 1669.11 Genetic Resources in the Humid Tropics 1669.12 Genetic Resources in the Semi-arid Tropics and Representative Subsets 1689.13 Plant Phenomics 1689.14 Discovering Climate Resilient Germplasm Using Representative Subsets 1709.14.1 Multiple Stress Tolerances 1709.14.2 Drought Tolerance 1709.14.3 Heat Tolerance 1739.14.4 Tolerance of Soil Nutrient Imbalance 1749.15 Global Warming and Declining Nutritional Quality 1749.16 Crop Wild Relatives (CWR) -The Source of Allelic Diversity 1749.17 Introgression of Traits from CWR 1759.18 Association Genetics to Abiotic Stress Adaptation 1769.19 Strategic Overview 1779.20 Perspectives 1779.21 Summary 179References 17910 Breeding New Generation Genotypes for Conservation Agriculture in Maize-Wheat Cropping Systems under Climate Change 189Rajbir Yadav, Kiran Gaikwad, Ranjan Bhattacharyya, Naresh Kumar Bainsla,Manjeet Kumar, and Shyam S. Yadav10.1 Introduction 18910.2 Challenges Before Indian Agriculture 19110.2.1 Declining Profit 19110.2.2 Depleting Natural Resources: 19310.2.2.1 Water: 19310.2.2.2 Soil Health/ Soil Quality 19310.2.3 Changing Climate 19510.2.4 Climate Change Adaptation:Why it is Important in Wheat? 19810.3 CA as a Concept to AddressThese Issues Simultaneously 19910.4 Technological Gaps for CA in India 19910.4.1 Machinery Issue 19910.4.2 Non-availability of Adapted Genotypes for Conservation Agriculture 20010.4.3 Designing the Breeding Strategies 20110.5 Characteristics of Genotypes Adapted for CA 20210.5.1 Role of Coleoptiles in Better Stand Establishment Under CA 20210.5.2 Spreading Growth Habit During Initial Phase for Better Moisture Conservation and Smothering of Weeds 20410.5.3 Exploitation of Vernalization Requirement for Intensification 20510.5.4 Integrating Cropping System and Agronomy Perspective in Breeding for CA 20910.6 Wheat Ideotype for Rice-Wheat Cropping Systems of Northern India 21410.7 Breeding Methodology Adopted in IARI for CA Specific Breeding 21510.8 Countering the Tradeoff Between Stress Adaptation and Yield Enhancement Through CA Directed Breeding 21610.8.1 Yield Enhancement by IncreasingWater Use EfficiencyThrough CA 21810.9 Conclusions 220References 22111 Pests and Diseases under Climate Change; Its Threat to Food Security 229Piotr Trȩbicki and Kyla Finlay11.1 Introduction 22911.2 Climate Change and Insect Pests 23111.3 Climate Change and Plant Viruses 23511.4 Climate Change and Fungal Pathogens 23811.5 Climate Change and Effects on Host Plant Distribution and Availability 240Acknowledgments 241References 24112 Crop Production Management to Climate Change 251Sain Dass, S. L. Jat, Gangadhar Karjagi Chikkappa, and C.M. Parihar12.1 Introduction 25112.2 Maize Scenario in World and India 25112.3 The Growth Rate of Maize 25412.4 Maize Improvement 25612.5 Single Cross Hybrids 25612.6 Pedigree Breeding for Inbred Lines Development 25712.6.1 Seed multiplication 25812.6.2 Single Cross Development 25812.7 Preferred Characteristics for Good Parent 25912.7.1 Female or Seed Parent 25912.7.2 Development of Specialty Corn Schs 25912.7.3 Baby Corn and Sweet Corn 25912.7.4 Quality Protein Maize (QPM) 26012.7.4.1 Improvement of Inbred Lines 26012.7.4.2 Improvement of Inbred Lines through MAS 26012.7.4.3 Foreground selection 26012.7.4.4 Background selection 26112.7.4.5 Marker Assisted Backcross Breeding strategies (MABB) 26212.7.4.6 MABB at What Cost? 26212.7.5 Doubled Haploid (DH) Technique 26312.7.5.1 Steps Involved In Vivo DH Inbred Lines Development 26312.7.5.2 Advantages of DH Lines over Conventional Inbred Lines 26512.7.6 Transgenic Maize and its Potential 26512.7.6.1 Abiotic Stresses 26612.7.6.2 Drought Tolerance 26712.7.6.3 Screening Techniques 26712.7.7 Hybrid Seed Production 26812.7.7.1 Pre-requisites of Single Cross Hybrid Seed Production 26812.7.8 Important Considerations for Hybrid Seed Production 26812.7.8.1 Isolation Distance 26812.7.8.2 Male:female Ratio 26912.7.8.3 How to Bring Male: female Synchrony? 26912.7.8.4 Hybrid Seed Production Technology 26912.7.8.5 Hybrid Seed Production Sites 27212.7.9 Crop Production 27212.7.9.1 Cropping System Optimization 27212.7.9.2 Crop Sequence 27312.7.9.3 Best Management Practices (BMP) for Crop Establishment 27412.7.9.4 Crop Establishment 27412.7.9.5 Raised Bed / ridge and Furrow Planting 27612.7.9.6 Zero-till Planting 27812.7.9.7 Conventional Till Flat Planting 27812.7.9.8 Furrow Planting 27812.7.9.9 Transplanting 27912.7.9.10 BMP for Water Management 27912.7.9.11 BMP for nutrient management 28112.8 Nutrient Management Practices for Higher Productivity and Profitability in Maize Systems 28312.8.1 Timing and method of fertilizer application 28412.8.2 Integrated Nutrient Management (INM) 28412.8.3 Biofertilizers 28512.8.4 Micronutrient Application 28512.8.5 Slow Release Fertilizers 28512.8.6 Precision Nutrient Management 28512.8.7 Conservation Agriculture and Smart Mechanization 286References 28713 Vegetable Genetic Resources for Food and Nutrition Security under Climate Change 289Andreas W. Ebert13.1 Introduction 28913.2 Global vegetable production 29013.3 The Role of Genetic Diversity to Maintain Sustainable Production Systems Under Climate Change 29013.4 Ex Situ Conservation of Vegetable Germplasm at The Global Level 29613.5 Access to Information on Ex Situ Germplasm Held Globally 30213.5.1 SINGER: Online Catalog of International Collections Managed by the GCIAR And WorldVeg 30313.5.2 EURISCO: the European Genetic Resources Search Catalog 30313.5.3 GRIN of USDA-ARS 30413.5.4 GENESYS: the global gateway to plant genetic resources 30413.5.5 The CropWild Relatives Portal 30513.5.6 Crop Trait Mining Platforms 30513.5.6.1 Crop Trait Mining Informatics Platform 30513.5.6.2 The Diversity Seek Initiative 30613.5.7 Trait information portal for CWR and landraces and crop-trait ontologies 30713.5.8 Summary and Outlook 30813.6 In Situ and On-farm Conservation of Vegetable Resources 31013.7 Summary and Outlook 311Acknowledgment 312References 312Annex 1 31514 Sustainable Vegetable Production to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change at Global Level 319Andreas W. Ebert, Thomas Dubois, Abdou Tenkouano, Ravza Mavlyanova, Jaw-FenWang, Bindumadhava Hanumantha Rao, Srinivasan Ramasamy, Sanjeet Kumar, Fenton D. Beed, Marti Pottorff, Wuu-Yang Chen, Ramakrishnan M. Nair, Harsh Nayyar, and James J. Riley14.1 Introduction 31914.2 Regional Perspective: Sub-Saharan Africa 32014.2.1 The Effects of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa 32014.2.2 Interactions Between Climate Change and Other Factors Driving Vegetable Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa 32114.2.3 Implications of Climate Change and Other Factors on Vegetable Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa 32114.3 Regional Perspective: South and Central Asia 32514.3.1 The Effects of Climate Change in South Asia 32514.3.2 The Effects of Climate Change in Central Asia 32614.3.3 Climate Change Adaptation Options in South and Central Asia 32614.4 The Role of Plant Genetic Resources for Sustainable Vegetable Production 32814.5 Microbial Genetic Resources to Boost Agricultural Performance of Robust Production Systems and to Buffer Impacts of Climate Change 32914.6 Physiological Responses to a Changing Climate: Elevated CO2 Concentrations and Temperature in The Environment 33014.6.1 CO2 and Photosynthesis 33014.6.2 CO2 and Stomatal Transpiration 33114.6.3 Dual Effect of Increased CO2 and Temperature 33114.6.3.1 High Temperature (HT) Effect on Mungbean 33214.6.3.2 Current and Proposed Mungbean Physiology Studies at Worldveg South Asia 33214.6.4 Conclusion 33414.7 Plant Breeding for Sustainable Vegetable Production 33514.7.1 Formal Vegetable Seed System –Lessons Learned 33514.7.2 Role ofWorldVeg’s International Breeding Programs 33614.7.3 Impact ofWorldVeg’s Breeding Programs 33714.7.4 Future Outlook 33714.8 Management of Bacterial and Fungal Diseases for Sustainable Vegetable Production 33814.9 Management of Insect and Mite Pests 34214.10 Grafting to Overcome Soil-borne Diseases and Abiotic Stresses 34414.11 Summary and Outlook 347Acknowledgment 347References 34815 Sustainable Production of Roots and Tuber Crops for Food Security under Climate Change 359Mary Taylor, Vincent Lebot, Andrew McGregor, and Robert J. Redden15.1 Introduction 35915.2 Optimum Growing Conditions for Root and Tuber Crops 36115.2.1 Sweet Potato 36115.2.2 Cassava 36115.2.3 Edible Aroids 36215.2.3.1 Taro 36215.2.3.2 Cocoyam 36215.2.3.3 Giant Taro 36315.2.3.4 Swamp Taro 36315.2.4 Yams 36315.3 Projected Response of Root and Tuber Crops to Climate Change 36415.3.1 Sweet Potato 36415.3.2 Cassava 36415.3.2.1 Edible Aroids 36515.3.2.2 Yam 36515.4 Climate Change and Potato Production 36615.5 Sustainable Production Approaches 36715.5.1 Agroforestry Systems 36715.5.1.1 Combining Tree Crops and Roots and Tubers 36715.5.2 Soil Health Management 36815.5.3 Utilizing Diversity 36815.6 Optimization of Root and Tuber Crops Resilience to Climate Change 36915.7 Conclusion 371References 37116 The Roles of Biotechnology in Agriculture to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change 377Rebecca Ford, Yasir Mehmood, Usana Nantawan, and Chutchamas Kanchana-Udomkan16.1 Introduction 37716.2 ReducedWater Availability and Drought 37816.3 Drought-proofing Wheat and Other Cereals 37816.4 Drought Tolerance in Temperate Legumes 38016.5 Drought Tolerance in Tropical Crops 38116.6 Rainfall Intensity, Flooding and Water-logging Tolerance 38316.7 Heat Stress And Thermo–tolerance 38516.8 Thermo-tolerance and Heat Shock Proteins in Food Crops 38516.9 Heat Stress Tolerance in Temperate Legumes 38816.10 Salinity Stress, Ionic and Osmotic Tolerances 38816.11 Salinity Tolerance in Rice 38916.12 Salinity Tolerance in Legumes 39016.13 Transgenics to Overcome Climate Change Imposed Abiotic Stresses 39016.14 Conclusion 392References 39317 Application of Biotechnologies in the Conservation and Utilization of Plant Genetic Resources for Food Security 413Toshiro Shigaki17.1 Introduction 41317.2 Climate change 41317.2.1 Population Explosion 41417.2.2 Vandalism 41417.3 Collecting Germplasm 41517.4 Conservation 41517.4.1 In situ Collection 41517.4.2 Ex situ Collection 41617.4.3 Slow Growth in Tissue Culture 41617.4.4 Cryopreservation 41717.4.5 Herbarium 41917.4.6 Svalbard Global Seed Vault 41917.5 Characterization of Germplasm 42017.5.1 Early Developments 42017.5.1.1 RFLP 42017.5.1.2 RAPD 42117.5.2 New Developments 42117.5.2.1 Genotyping by Simple Sequence Repeats (SSR) 42117.5.2.2 Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) 42117.5.3 Recent Developments 42217.5.3.1 Genotyping by Sequencing (GBS) 42217.5.4 Future Prospects 42217.6 Germplasm Exchange 42217.6.1 Bioassay 42317.6.2 Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) 42317.6.3 PCR 42317.6.4 Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) 42317.7 Germplasm Utilization 42517.7.1 Embryo Rescue 42517.7.2 Somatic Hybridization 42617.7.3 Molecular Breeding 42617.7.4 Genetic Engineering 42617.7.5 Biosafety 42817.8 Future Strategies and Guidelines for the Preservation of Plant Genetic Resources 428References 43018 Climate Change Influence on Herbicide Efficacy andWeed Management 433Mithila Jugulam, Aruna K. Varanasi, Vijaya K. Varanasi, and P.V.V. Prasad18.1 Introduction 43318.2 Herbicides in Weed Management 43418.3 Climate Factors and Crop-Weed Competition 43418.4 Climate Change Factors, Herbicide Efficacy and Weed Control 43818.4.1 Effects of Elevated CO2 and High Temperatures 43818.4.2 Effects of Precipitation and Relative Humidity 44018.4.3 Effects of Solar Radiation 44118.5 Concluding Remarks and Future Direction 442Acknowledgments 442References 44219 Farmers’ Knowledge and Adaptation to Climate Change to Ensure Food Security 449Lois Wright Morton19.1 Farmers and Climate Change 44919.2 Knowledge About Climate 45119.3 Weather and Climate 45219.4 Values and Beliefs About Climate Change 45319.5 Farmer Climate Beliefs 45419.6 Vulnerability, Experiences of Risk, Concern About Hazards and confidence 45619.7 Climate Related Hazards 45819.8 Adaptation Factors 46019.9 Water is the Visible Face of Climate 46219.10 Making Sense of Climate: Local, Indigenous and Scientific knowledge 46319.11 System Adaptation or Transformation 465References 46720 Farmer and Community-led Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture Using Agricultural Biodiversity and Genetic Resources 471Tony McDonald, Jessica Sokolow, and Danny Hunter20.1 Introduction 47120.2 Impact of Climate Change on Farming Communities 47220.3 Inequity of Climate Change across Farming Communities 47420.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Many Elements of Genetic Resources and Agricultural Biodiversity 47520.5 Monocultures 47520.6 Wild Species 47620.7 Role of Genetic Resources and Agricultural Biodiversity in Coping with Climate Change 47720.8 Brief Overview of Approaches Using Genetic Resources and Agricultural Biodiversity to Cope with Climate Change 47820.9 Identification of a Spectrum of Examples of Farmer-led Approaches 48220.10 Examination of Barriers to Implementation of Farmer-led Approaches 48320.10.1 Farmers & their Communities 49020.10.2 Institutional & Collaborative mechanisms 49120.10.3 Contextual & Background 49220.11 Systems that are working 49320.12 Conclusion 494References 49421 Accessing Genetic Diversity for Food Security and Climate Change Adaptation in Select Communities in Africa 499Otieno Gloria21.1 Introduction 49921.2 Methodology 50121.2.1 Reference Sites and Crops 50121.2.2 Data and Methods 50221.3 Results and Discussion 50421.3.1 Summary of Climate Change in Selected Sites 50421.3.2 Finding Potentially Adaptable Accessions from a Pool of National and International Plant Genetic Resources 50421.3.2.1 Zambia 50521.3.2.2 Zimbabwe 50821.3.2.3 Benin 50821.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications 520References 521Index 523