Reliability Prediction and Testing Textbook

LEV M. KLYATIS, HAB. DR-ING., SCD, PHD, is a Senior Advisor at SoHaR, Inc.and the author of Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology. His vast experience and innovations enabled him to create and implement a new direction for the solution of reliability and other components of performance problems. He holds over thirty patents worldwide, and is the author of hundreds of publications. EDWARD L. ANDERSON, P.E. Ed has over 35 years experience with the Port Authority of NY & NJ as an Automotive Engineer. He is a graduate of Newark College of Engineering with a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering; a Master's Degree in Health and Safety Engineering; and, and a Post Master's Certificate from Dowling College in Total Quality Management. He is a Professional Engineer and is active in SAE International and the Elmer A Sperry Board of Award.

• Preface xiLevM. Klyatis and Edward L. AndersonAbout the Authors xixIntroduction xxiiiLevM. Klyatis1 Analysis of Current Practices in Reliability Prediction 1LevM. Klyatis1.1 Overview of Current Situation in Methodological Aspects of Reliability Prediction 11.1.1 What is a Potential Failure Mode? 51.1.2 General Model 61.1.3 Classical Test Theory 61.1.4 Estimation 71.1.5 Reliability Prediction for Mean Time Between Failures 91.1.6 About Reliability Software 91.1.6.1 MIL-HDBK-217 Predictive Method 101.1.6.2 Bellcore/Telcordia Predictive Method 111.1.6.3 Discussion of Empirical Methods 111.1.7 Physics of Failure Methods 121.1.7.1 Arrhenius’s Law 121.1.7.2 Eyring and Other Models 121.1.7.3 Hot Carrier Injection Model 131.1.7.4 Black Model for Electromigration 141.1.7.5 Discussion of Physics of Failure Methods 141.1.8 Life Testing Method 151.1.8.1 Conclusions 151.1.8.2 Failure of the Old Methods 171.1.9 Section Summary 231.2 Current Situation in Practical Reliability Prediction 241.3 From History of Reliability Prediction Development 271.4 Why Reliability Prediction is Not Effectively Utilized in Industry 30References 35Exercises 402 Successful Reliability Prediction for Industry 43LevM. Klyatis2.1 Introduction 432.2 Step-by-Step Solution for Practical Successful Reliability Prediction 462.3 Successful Reliability Prediction Strategy 482.4 The Role of Accurate Definitions in Successful Reliability Prediction: Basic Definitions 492.5 Successful Reliability Prediction Methodology 532.5.1 Criteria of Successful Reliability Prediction Using Results of Accelerated Reliability Testing 532.5.2 Development of Techniques for Product Reliability Prediction Using Accelerated Reliability Testing Results 632.5.2.1 Basic Concepts of Reliability Prediction 632.5.2.2 Prediction of the Reliability Function without Finding the Accurate Analytical or Graphical Form of the Failures’ Distribution Law 642.5.2.3 Prediction Using Mathematical Models Without Indication of the Dependence Between Product Reliability and Different Factors of Manufacturing and Field Usage 652.5.2.4 Practical Example 68References 70Exercises 713 Testing as a Source of Initial Information for Successful Practical Reliability Prediction 75LevM. Klyatis3.1 How the Testing Strategy Impacts the Level of Reliability Prediction 753.2 The Role of Field Influences on Accurate Simulation 803.3 Basic Concepts of Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology 833.4 Why Separate Simulation of Input Influences is not Effective in Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing 88References 96Exercises 974 Implementation of Successful Reliability Testing and Prediction 101LevM. Klyatis4.1 Direct Implementation: Financial Results 1024.1.1 Cost-Effective Test Subject Development and Improvement 1074.1.1.1 Example 1 1084.1.1.2 Example 2 1094.2 Standardization as a Factor in the Implementation of Reliability Testing and Prediction 1104.2.1 Implementation of Reliability Testing and Successful Reliability Prediction through the Application of Standard EP-456 “Test and Reliability Guidelines” for Farm Machinery 1104.2.2 How the Work in SAE G-11 Division, Reliability Committee Assisted in Implementing Accelerated Reliability Testing as a Component of Successful Reliability Prediction 1114.2.3 Development and Implementation of Reliability Testing during the Work for the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), USA Representative for International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Reliability and Risk (IEC/ISO Joint Study Group) 1494.3 Implementing Reliability Testing and Prediction through Presentations, Publications, Networking as Chat with the Experts, Boards, Seminars,Workshops/Symposiums Over the World 1554.4 Implementation of Reliability Prediction and Testing through Citations and Book Reviews of Lev Klyatis’s Work Around the World 1834.5 Why Successful Product Prediction Reliability has not been Widely Embraced by Industry 193References 194Exercises 1955 Reliability and Maintainability Issues with Low-Volume, Custom, and Special-Purpose Vehicles and Equipment 197Edward L. Anderson5.1 Introduction 1975.2 Characteristics of Low-Volume, Custom, and Special-Purpose Vehicles and Equipment 2005.2.1 Product Research 2025.2.2 Vendor Strength 2035.2.3 Select a Mature Product 2035.2.4 Develop a Strong Purchase Contract 2035.2.5 Establish a Symbiotic Relationship 2045.2.6 Utilize Consensus Standards 2045.2.7 User Groups/Professional Societies 2055.2.8 Prerequisites 2055.2.9 Extended Warranties 2065.2.10 Defect/Failure Definitions/Remedies 2065.2.11 Pre-Award and/or Preproduction Meetings 2075.2.12 Variation 2085.2.13 Factory Inspections 2095.2.14 Prototype Functional or Performance Testing 2105.2.15 Acceptance Testing 2105.2.16 “Lead the Fleet” Utilization 2115.2.17 Reserves 2125.2.18 Problem Log 2135.2.19 Self-Help 213References 214Exercises 2146 Exemplary Models of Programs and Illustrations for Professional Learning in Reliability Prediction and Accelerated Reliability Testing 217LevM. Klyatis6.1 Examples of the Program 2176.1.1 Example 1. Several Days’ Course: “Successful Prediction of Product Reliability and Necessary Testing” 2176.1.2 Example 2. One-Day Course “Methodology of Reliability Prediction” 2186.1.3 Example 3. One–Two Days’ Course (or tutorial) “Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology as Source of Obtaining Information for Successful Reliability Prediction” 2196.1.4 Example 4. One–Two Days’ Seminar “Foundation for Designing Successful Accelerated Testing” 2196.2 Illustrations for these and Other Programs in Reliability Prediction and Testing 2206.2.1 Examples: Text for the Slides 2206.2.2 Examples of Figures 228Index 243