Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA.Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Australia.Wenju Cai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia.

• List of Contributors viiAcknowledgments xiiiPreface xvSection I: Introduction1. Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 3Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai2. ENSO in the Global Climate System 21Kevin E. TrenberthSection II: Observations3. ENSO Observations 41Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda4. ENSO Diversity 65Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, and Michael J. McPhaden5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications 87Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng ZhuSection III: Theories and Dynamics6. Simple ENSO Models 121Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, and Licheng Geng7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry 153Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko M. Okumura, and Tim Li8. ENSO Low‐frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions 173Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Aaron F. Z. Levine, and Clara DeserSection IV: Modeling and Prediction9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges 201Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew T. Wittenberg10. ENSO Prediction 227Michelle L. L’Heureux, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. StockdaleSection V: Remote and External Forcing11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific 249Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO 267Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing 289Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel TimmermannSection VI: Teleconnections and Impacts14. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections 311Andréa S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh15. ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections 337Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alexander Sen Gupta16. Impact of El Nino on Weather and Climate Extremes 361Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones 377I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin18. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts  409Neil J. Holbrook, Danielle C. Claar, Alistair J. Hobday, Kathleen L. McInnes, Eric C. J. Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang19. ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems 429Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkès, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle 453Richard A. Betts, Chantelle A. Burton, Richard A. Feely, Mat Collins, Chris D. Jones, and Andy J. WiltshireSection VII: Closing21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo‐Perspectives, and OutlookChristina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju CaiGlossary 485Index 491

Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA.Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Australia.Wenju Cai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia.

• List of Contributors viiAcknowledgments xiiiPreface xvSection I: Introduction1. Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 3Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai2. ENSO in the Global Climate System 21Kevin E. TrenberthSection II: Observations3. ENSO Observations 41Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda4. ENSO Diversity 65Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, and Michael J. McPhaden5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications 87Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng ZhuSection III: Theories and Dynamics6. Simple ENSO Models 121Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, and Licheng Geng7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry 153Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko M. Okumura, and Tim Li8. ENSO Low‐frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions 173Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Aaron F. Z. Levine, and Clara DeserSection IV: Modeling and Prediction9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges 201Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew T. Wittenberg10. ENSO Prediction 227Michelle L. L’Heureux, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. StockdaleSection V: Remote and External Forcing11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific 249Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO 267Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing 289Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel TimmermannSection VI: Teleconnections and Impacts14. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections 311Andréa S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh15. ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections 337Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alexander Sen Gupta16. Impact of El Nino on Weather and Climate Extremes 361Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones 377I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin18. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts  409Neil J. Holbrook, Danielle C. Claar, Alistair J. Hobday, Kathleen L. McInnes, Eric C. J. Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang19. ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems 429Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkès, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle 453Richard A. Betts, Chantelle A. Burton, Richard A. Feely, Mat Collins, Chris D. Jones, and Andy J. WiltshireSection VII: Closing21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo‐Perspectives, and OutlookChristina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju CaiGlossary 485Index 491

Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA.Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Australia.Wenju Cai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia.

• List of Contributors viiAcknowledgments xiiiPreface xvSection I: Introduction1. Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 3Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai2. ENSO in the Global Climate System 21Kevin E. TrenberthSection II: Observations3. ENSO Observations 41Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda4. ENSO Diversity 65Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, and Michael J. McPhaden5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications 87Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng ZhuSection III: Theories and Dynamics6. Simple ENSO Models 121Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, and Licheng Geng7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry 153Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko M. Okumura, and Tim Li8. ENSO Low‐frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions 173Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Aaron F. Z. Levine, and Clara DeserSection IV: Modeling and Prediction9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges 201Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew T. Wittenberg10. ENSO Prediction 227Michelle L. L’Heureux, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. StockdaleSection V: Remote and External Forcing11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific 249Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO 267Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing 289Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel TimmermannSection VI: Teleconnections and Impacts14. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections 311Andréa S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh15. ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections 337Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alexander Sen Gupta16. Impact of El Nino on Weather and Climate Extremes 361Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones 377I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin18. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts  409Neil J. Holbrook, Danielle C. Claar, Alistair J. Hobday, Kathleen L. McInnes, Eric C. J. Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang19. ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems 429Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkès, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle 453Richard A. Betts, Chantelle A. Burton, Richard A. Feely, Mat Collins, Chris D. Jones, and Andy J. WiltshireSection VII: Closing21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo‐Perspectives, and OutlookChristina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju CaiGlossary 485Index 491