ARUNKUMAR KRISHNAKUMAR is a partner at Delphos International, where he leads emerging markets technology investments. He holds a Master’s degree in Finance from the London School of Economics and a postgraduate Diploma in Global Business from Said Business School, University of Oxford. He is also a podcast host.MAXSON J.Y. TEE is Associate Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Digital Development at Barclays. He is also an investor and research analyst at Green Shores Capital.

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• Foreword xiPreface xiiiAcknowledgements xxiiiAbout the Authors xxv1 Even Shit Floats in High Tide 1Introduction 1The Macros Matter 3Capitalism: The Pyramid Scheme 4Tier 0 5Tier 1 5Tier 2 5Tier 3 5Tier 4 7Tier 5 8Role of the Central Banks and Regulators 8Virtuous Cycles 10The Wealth Effect 14An Interplay of Incentives 14Investor Dilemma 17Conclusion 202 Hindsight’s 2020 23Introduction 23Structural versus Event-Driven Crises 24Structural 25Event-Driven 25The Crisis Timeline 26Black Monday 1987 27Dot-Com Bubble 1999–2000 29The Great Recession of 2008 31The Year of Crises – 2020 35If It Smells Like Funk 38Greed Is Good, or Is It? 38Consistent Overvaluation 39Failed Funding Rounds 39Down Rounds 40Funding Gaps 40Data Collection 42Ecosystem Pulse 43Team 44Product 45Competition 47Funding 48Conclusion 493 Be Your Own Shrink 53Introduction 53Crisis Is Here 54Put on Your Seat Belt First 54The Emotional Gym 56Organisational Emotional Fitness 60You and Your Business: A 3D Model 61Passion 62Skills 63Demand 64Step Away 64Switch Off or Snooze 65Mentoring 67Executive Coaching 68Connect and Inspire 68Conclusion 704 The Surgical Strike 73Introduction 73The Startup Bell Curve 75A 3D Plan of Action 77Survive: First-Order Optimisation 77Normalise: Second-Order Optimisation 77Thrive: Third-Order Optimisation 78First-Order Optimisation 79CashFlow Is Oxygen 80Soul Searching 81What’s the Heart of Your Business? 82Where Are You Relevant? 84Is Your Cost Structure Optimal? 85Scenario Planning 87The Soul versus Value Quadrant 88Cold Decisions, Humane Execution 91Communication Architecture 92Clients: Increase Incoming 95Suppliers and Vendors: Decrease Outgoing 97The Firm: Align Culture 98Team: Handle with Care 99What Next? 103Conclusion 1045 Check Your Mirrors 107Introduction 107Second-Order Optimisation 108The Who 110The Why 112The How Much 115The How 118Ask Them 118Get Them 119Understand Them 120Behaviour versus Value 123Conclusion 1266 Map the Trip 127Introduction 127Infrastructure 128Policy Infrastructure 128Payment Services Directive (PSD 2) 130Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies 131India’s Aadhaar 132Drug Discovery 134Technology Infrastructure 134Rise of the Machines 135AWS and Innovation 136Broadband and Video Genre 137Ecosystem Infrastructure 139Talent Infrastructure 139Funding Infrastructure 141The Missing Link 145Conclusion 1477 From Fiats to Ferraris 149Introduction 149The 4D Lens 150Time: Longevity 151Time: Velocity 151Space: Scale 152Space: Weight 152The Business Model Barometer 153Contractually Predictable 155Enterprise Software 155Software as a Service (SaaS) 156Subscription 157Behaviourally Predictable 158Advertising 160Transactional 161Hybrid 162Marketplace 162Mix, Match and Moonshot 164Conclusion 1678 Hit Refresh 169Introduction 169Third-Order Optimisation 170The Pirate Metrics 171Shades of Grey 172Preserve the Soul 175Continue Experimentation 176Build for a Crisis 177Tip 1: Values Make or Break Firms 179Tip 2: It’s the Team, Idiot 180Tip 3: Decentralising Decision-Making 181Tip 4: Data-Driven Accountability 182Tip 5: Embracing Cost Consciousness 182Tip 6: Growing Responsibly 183Tip 7: Tapping into a Support Network 184Tip 8: Mind the Mind 184Conclusion 1879 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 189Introduction 189The Macro Environment 190What History Tells Us 191Wear Your Mask First 194Cold Decisions and Humane Execution 197Customer Is King 200Infrastructure Catalysts 203Business Model Evaluation 206All Change 208Conclusion 212Glossary 215Index 221

ARUNKUMAR KRISHNAKUMAR is a partner at Delphos International, where he leads emerging markets technology investments. He holds a Master’s degree in Finance from the London School of Economics and a postgraduate Diploma in Global Business from Said Business School, University of Oxford. He is also a podcast host.MAXSON J.Y. TEE is Associate Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Digital Development at Barclays. He is also an investor and research analyst at Green Shores Capital.

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• Foreword xiPreface xiiiAcknowledgements xxiiiAbout the Authors xxv1 Even Shit Floats in High Tide 1Introduction 1The Macros Matter 3Capitalism: The Pyramid Scheme 4Tier 0 5Tier 1 5Tier 2 5Tier 3 5Tier 4 7Tier 5 8Role of the Central Banks and Regulators 8Virtuous Cycles 10The Wealth Effect 14An Interplay of Incentives 14Investor Dilemma 17Conclusion 202 Hindsight’s 2020 23Introduction 23Structural versus Event-Driven Crises 24Structural 25Event-Driven 25The Crisis Timeline 26Black Monday 1987 27Dot-Com Bubble 1999–2000 29The Great Recession of 2008 31The Year of Crises – 2020 35If It Smells Like Funk 38Greed Is Good, or Is It? 38Consistent Overvaluation 39Failed Funding Rounds 39Down Rounds 40Funding Gaps 40Data Collection 42Ecosystem Pulse 43Team 44Product 45Competition 47Funding 48Conclusion 493 Be Your Own Shrink 53Introduction 53Crisis Is Here 54Put on Your Seat Belt First 54The Emotional Gym 56Organisational Emotional Fitness 60You and Your Business: A 3D Model 61Passion 62Skills 63Demand 64Step Away 64Switch Off or Snooze 65Mentoring 67Executive Coaching 68Connect and Inspire 68Conclusion 704 The Surgical Strike 73Introduction 73The Startup Bell Curve 75A 3D Plan of Action 77Survive: First-Order Optimisation 77Normalise: Second-Order Optimisation 77Thrive: Third-Order Optimisation 78First-Order Optimisation 79CashFlow Is Oxygen 80Soul Searching 81What’s the Heart of Your Business? 82Where Are You Relevant? 84Is Your Cost Structure Optimal? 85Scenario Planning 87The Soul versus Value Quadrant 88Cold Decisions, Humane Execution 91Communication Architecture 92Clients: Increase Incoming 95Suppliers and Vendors: Decrease Outgoing 97The Firm: Align Culture 98Team: Handle with Care 99What Next? 103Conclusion 1045 Check Your Mirrors 107Introduction 107Second-Order Optimisation 108The Who 110The Why 112The How Much 115The How 118Ask Them 118Get Them 119Understand Them 120Behaviour versus Value 123Conclusion 1266 Map the Trip 127Introduction 127Infrastructure 128Policy Infrastructure 128Payment Services Directive (PSD 2) 130Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies 131India’s Aadhaar 132Drug Discovery 134Technology Infrastructure 134Rise of the Machines 135AWS and Innovation 136Broadband and Video Genre 137Ecosystem Infrastructure 139Talent Infrastructure 139Funding Infrastructure 141The Missing Link 145Conclusion 1477 From Fiats to Ferraris 149Introduction 149The 4D Lens 150Time: Longevity 151Time: Velocity 151Space: Scale 152Space: Weight 152The Business Model Barometer 153Contractually Predictable 155Enterprise Software 155Software as a Service (SaaS) 156Subscription 157Behaviourally Predictable 158Advertising 160Transactional 161Hybrid 162Marketplace 162Mix, Match and Moonshot 164Conclusion 1678 Hit Refresh 169Introduction 169Third-Order Optimisation 170The Pirate Metrics 171Shades of Grey 172Preserve the Soul 175Continue Experimentation 176Build for a Crisis 177Tip 1: Values Make or Break Firms 179Tip 2: It’s the Team, Idiot 180Tip 3: Decentralising Decision-Making 181Tip 4: Data-Driven Accountability 182Tip 5: Embracing Cost Consciousness 182Tip 6: Growing Responsibly 183Tip 7: Tapping into a Support Network 184Tip 8: Mind the Mind 184Conclusion 1879 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 189Introduction 189The Macro Environment 190What History Tells Us 191Wear Your Mask First 194Cold Decisions and Humane Execution 197Customer Is King 200Infrastructure Catalysts 203Business Model Evaluation 206All Change 208Conclusion 212Glossary 215Index 221

ARUNKUMAR KRISHNAKUMAR is a partner at Delphos International, where he leads emerging markets technology investments. He holds a Master’s degree in Finance from the London School of Economics and a postgraduate Diploma in Global Business from Said Business School, University of Oxford. He is also a podcast host.MAXSON J.Y. TEE is Associate Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Digital Development at Barclays. He is also an investor and research analyst at Green Shores Capital.

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• Foreword xiPreface xiiiAcknowledgements xxiiiAbout the Authors xxv1 Even Shit Floats in High Tide 1Introduction 1The Macros Matter 3Capitalism: The Pyramid Scheme 4Tier 0 5Tier 1 5Tier 2 5Tier 3 5Tier 4 7Tier 5 8Role of the Central Banks and Regulators 8Virtuous Cycles 10The Wealth Effect 14An Interplay of Incentives 14Investor Dilemma 17Conclusion 202 Hindsight’s 2020 23Introduction 23Structural versus Event-Driven Crises 24Structural 25Event-Driven 25The Crisis Timeline 26Black Monday 1987 27Dot-Com Bubble 1999–2000 29The Great Recession of 2008 31The Year of Crises – 2020 35If It Smells Like Funk 38Greed Is Good, or Is It? 38Consistent Overvaluation 39Failed Funding Rounds 39Down Rounds 40Funding Gaps 40Data Collection 42Ecosystem Pulse 43Team 44Product 45Competition 47Funding 48Conclusion 493 Be Your Own Shrink 53Introduction 53Crisis Is Here 54Put on Your Seat Belt First 54The Emotional Gym 56Organisational Emotional Fitness 60You and Your Business: A 3D Model 61Passion 62Skills 63Demand 64Step Away 64Switch Off or Snooze 65Mentoring 67Executive Coaching 68Connect and Inspire 68Conclusion 704 The Surgical Strike 73Introduction 73The Startup Bell Curve 75A 3D Plan of Action 77Survive: First-Order Optimisation 77Normalise: Second-Order Optimisation 77Thrive: Third-Order Optimisation 78First-Order Optimisation 79CashFlow Is Oxygen 80Soul Searching 81What’s the Heart of Your Business? 82Where Are You Relevant? 84Is Your Cost Structure Optimal? 85Scenario Planning 87The Soul versus Value Quadrant 88Cold Decisions, Humane Execution 91Communication Architecture 92Clients: Increase Incoming 95Suppliers and Vendors: Decrease Outgoing 97The Firm: Align Culture 98Team: Handle with Care 99What Next? 103Conclusion 1045 Check Your Mirrors 107Introduction 107Second-Order Optimisation 108The Who 110The Why 112The How Much 115The How 118Ask Them 118Get Them 119Understand Them 120Behaviour versus Value 123Conclusion 1266 Map the Trip 127Introduction 127Infrastructure 128Policy Infrastructure 128Payment Services Directive (PSD 2) 130Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies 131India’s Aadhaar 132Drug Discovery 134Technology Infrastructure 134Rise of the Machines 135AWS and Innovation 136Broadband and Video Genre 137Ecosystem Infrastructure 139Talent Infrastructure 139Funding Infrastructure 141The Missing Link 145Conclusion 1477 From Fiats to Ferraris 149Introduction 149The 4D Lens 150Time: Longevity 151Time: Velocity 151Space: Scale 152Space: Weight 152The Business Model Barometer 153Contractually Predictable 155Enterprise Software 155Software as a Service (SaaS) 156Subscription 157Behaviourally Predictable 158Advertising 160Transactional 161Hybrid 162Marketplace 162Mix, Match and Moonshot 164Conclusion 1678 Hit Refresh 169Introduction 169Third-Order Optimisation 170The Pirate Metrics 171Shades of Grey 172Preserve the Soul 175Continue Experimentation 176Build for a Crisis 177Tip 1: Values Make or Break Firms 179Tip 2: It’s the Team, Idiot 180Tip 3: Decentralising Decision-Making 181Tip 4: Data-Driven Accountability 182Tip 5: Embracing Cost Consciousness 182Tip 6: Growing Responsibly 183Tip 7: Tapping into a Support Network 184Tip 8: Mind the Mind 184Conclusion 1879 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 189Introduction 189The Macro Environment 190What History Tells Us 191Wear Your Mask First 194Cold Decisions and Humane Execution 197Customer Is King 200Infrastructure Catalysts 203Business Model Evaluation 206All Change 208Conclusion 212Glossary 215Index 221