Decisions Over Decimals

CHRISTOPHER FRANK is a Vice President in the Global Advertising and Brand Management team at American Express. He is a senior strategist at the intersection of marketing, analytics, and commerce developing superior strategies applied to global markets working with B2B and B2C products. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School. PAUL MAGNONE is Head of Global Strategic Alliances at Google. He is a leader in using technology and innovation to create and develop growth strategies for businesses. He has launched new high-growth businesses working in over 30 countries and has been an Industry Mentor in the NSF I-Corps™ Program. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School. ODED NETZER is the Vice Dean of Research and the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. He is also an Amazon Scholar and an affiliate of the Columbia University Data Science Institute. Professor Netzer is a world-renowned expert in data-driven decision-making. His award-winning research is broadly read and highly cited. He has published dozens of papers in the world’s leading marketing and management science journals.

• Foreword xiPreface xiiiPrologue: The Certainty Myth xixQuantitative Intuition (QI)™ xxWhy Quantitative Intuition™ xxviiiBiases from Working Intuitively xxxiiiBiases from Working with Data xxxviChapter 1 Asking Powerful Questions 1Road to Powerful Questioning 3Precision Questioning 3The Power of Precision Questions 5Building an Inquisitive Team 6The Smartest Person in the Room 10Key Learnings - Chapter 1 13Chapter 2 Framing the Problem 15IWIK™: A Tool for Reasoning 17The IWIK™ Process 18Framing the Decision 30Key Learnings - Chapter 2 31Chapter 3 Working Backward to Move Forward 33Defining the Problem 35Harnessing Inside of-the-Box Thinking 42Taking the Road Less Traveled 45Key Learnings - Chapter 3 48Chapter 4 Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator 49Assessing the Data and Its Reliability 51Putting the Data in Context 64Pressure Testing Your Analysis 66Key Learnings - Chapter 4 71Chapter 5 Developing Intuition for Numbers 73The Power of Approximations 74Learning to Approximate 76Approximating in Practice 78Why Guesstimation Works 80Getting Comfortable with Approximations 82Guesstimation in the QI Framework 86Key Learnings - Chapter 5 86Chapter 6 From Analysis to Synthesis 89The Value of Synthesis 90Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line 93The Lack of Synthesis 95Encouraging Synthesis 97“What?”, “So What?”, and “Now What?” 99Key Learnings - Chapter 6 100Chapter 7 The Decision Moment 101Dimensions of the Decision Moment 102The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk 103The Third Dimension: Trust 106Measuring Time, Risk, and Trust 108Decision Reversibility 115Navigating Ambiguity 118From IWIKs™ to Decisions 121Key Learnings - Chapter 7 123Chapter 8 Delivering the Decision 125The Story Arc in Decision-Making 126Tuning the Narrative 128Inform versus Compel 139Key Learnings - Chapter 8 141Chapter 9 Chasing the Decision 143Strategy 1: Create the Case for the Decision 146Strategy 2: Frame the Outcome 150Strategy 3: Classify the Type of Decision 153Strategy 4: Reduce the Scope of the Decision 154Strategy 5: Right Size the Decision 156Strategy 6: Pressure Test the Decision—Go to the Extremes 159Strategy 7: Seek Consent Not Consensus 163The Perfect Decision Is an Illusion 164Key Learnings - Chapter 9 165Chapter 10 Creating a Quantitative Intuition™ Culture 167Recruiting for the Quantitative Intuition™ Skill Set 169Building a Quantitative Intuition™ Team 175Cultivating a Quantitative Intuition™ Organization 181Key Learnings - Chapter 10 183Chapter 11 The Future of Data-Driven Decision-Making 185Automation and Human Judgement 186Predictions and the Digital Twin 190Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking 193Found Time for More Decisions 196Epilogue 199Acknowledgments 203Index 207