Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. After retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer was associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades until his death in August 2018. He has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. Mr. Heuer has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California. He also pursued graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan.

"This is one of the rare textbooks extant that succeed brilliantly in solving the basic dilemma of every textbook: to be accessible to the novice and at the same time exact in the details. It does so by following the identical text structure for each of the techniques it discusses. As a consequence, it is at the same time a textbook and a work of reference."

• FiguresForeword by John McLaughlinPrefaceChapter 1 • Introduction and Overview1.1 Our Vision1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book1.6 Quick Overview of ChaptersChapter 2 • The Role of Structured Techniques2.1 Two Types of Thinking2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques2.5 Combating Digital DisinformationChapter 3 • Choosing the Right Technique3.1 The Six Families3.2 Core Techniques3.3 Selecting the Right Technique3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured TechniquesChapter 4 • Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams4.2 Dividing the Work4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups4.5 Benefiting from Diversity4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry4.7 Leadership and TrainingChapter 5 • Getting Organized5.1 Sorting5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing5.3 Matrices5.4 Process Maps5.5 Gantt ChartsChapter 6 • Exploration Techniques6.1 Simple Brainstorming6.2 Cluster Brainstorming6.3 Nominal Group Technique6.4 Circleboarding™6.5 Starbursting6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps6.7 Venn Analysis6.8 Network AnalysisChapter 7 • Diagnostic Techniques7.1 Key Assumptions Check7.2 Chronologies and Timelines7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses7.7 Inconsistencies Finder™7.8 Deception Detection7.9 Argument MappingChapter 8 • Reframing Techniques8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques8.3 Conflict Management TechniquesChapter 9 • Foresight Techniques9.1 Key Drivers Generation™9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder™9.3 Reversing Assumptions9.4 Simple Scenarios9.5 Cone of Plausibility9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation9.8 Morphological Analysis9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and EvaluationChapter 10 • Decision Support Techniques10.1 Opportunities Incubator™10.2 Bowtie Analysis10.3 Impact Matrix10.4 SWOT Analysis10.5 Critical Path Analysis10.6 Decision Trees10.7 Decision Matrix10.8 Force Field Analysis10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes10.10 Complexity ManagerChapter 11 • The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030