2052

Jorgen Randers is professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, where he works on climate issues and scenario analysis. He was previously president of BI and deputy director general of WWF International (World Wildlife Fund) in Switzerland. He lectures internationally on sustainable development and especially climate, and is a nonexecutive member of a number of corporate boards. He sits on the sustainability councils of British Telecom in the UK and the Dow Chemical Company in the United States. In 2006 he chaired the cabinet-appointed Commission on Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions, which reported on how Norway can cut its climate gas emissions by two-thirds by 2050. Randers has written numerous books and scientific papers, and was coauthor of The Limits to Growth in 1972, Beyond the Limits in 1992, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update in 2004, and 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years in 2011.  Randers lives in Oslo, Norway.

Choice-In commemoration of the 40th anniversary of Limits to Growth (CH, Nov'73), Randers (climate strategy, BI Norwegian Business School) forecasts changes in population, consumption, energy use, emissions, quality of life, and climate over the next 40 years. As one of the original contributors to Limits to Growth, the author's current forecast is based on the ‘overshoot and collapse’ scenario. Regional scenarios highlight the distribution of benefits and costs from climate change across the globe, underscoring the distinct consequences on the developed and developing world. The author emphasizes that shortsighted decision making associated with democracy is ill suited to handle climate change, given its long-term outcomes. A novel feature of this work is the inclusion of predictions from more than two dozen experts working in ecology, political science, industry, and economics. These individual contributions are woven into the larger story to provide comparison with the author's predictions. Overall, this work is accessible to a general audience; however, Randers's limited analysis and justification of model assumption restrict the usefulness of this book as a stand-alone text. It could be useful in conjunction with some formal texts on globalization, economics, and the environment. Summing Up: Optional. General readers and undergraduate students.

• Preface: what will the future bringPart 1: Background. Worrying about the futureFive big issues toward 2052Part 2: My global forecastThe logic behind my forecast Population and consumption to 2052 Energy and CO2 to 2052 Food and footprint to 2052 The nonmaterial future to 2052 The Zeitgeist in 2052Part 3: AnalysisReflections on the futureFive regional futures Comparison with other futures What should you do?Closing words

1. 5/5

   Den viktigaste bok du kan läsa.

   Jørgen Randers har enorma kunskaper om hur världen förändras, till det känner han ett nätverk av de bästa forskarna. Allt detta använder han för att berätta om hur världen kommer att utvecklas fram till år 2052. År 1972 var han med och skrev "Tillväxtens gränser". De prognoserna för hur världen skulle förändras har varit korrekta för tiden sedan dess ända fram till idag.

   Jakob L

   05 maj 2025