Hughes, Barry B.; Joshi, Devin K.; Moyer, Jonathan D.; Sisk, Timothy D.; Solorzano, Jose Roberto

“A study impressive for its sweep and ambition, as well as for its academic rigor. Taking on a remarkable range of fundamental issues relating to democracy and governance, the authors raise critical questions and offer important explanations of direct value to policymakers as well as scholars.” —Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “This book is principled, systematic, and very transparent in its forecasting of governance and conflict.” —Kristian Gleditsch, University of Essex and International Peace Research Institute “Forecasting is the third act of reason: learning from the past, knowing the present, and preparing for the future. Congratulations for a job really well done!” —Monty Marshall, Director, Center for Systemic Peace and Polity IV Project “This volume and the International Futures model are outstanding tools for grappling with the ideas of governance and development.” —Evan Hillebrand, University of Kentucky “Measuring governance is difficult enough; forecasting it is an ambitious undertaking. Congratulations on this contribution to our understanding of governance, fragility, and conflict.” —Alastair McKechnie, Overseas Development Institute Research Associate

• List of Boxes, List of Figures, List of Tables, Abbreviations and Acronyms, 1. Understanding Long-term Governance Transitions, 2. Assessing the Evolution of Governance, 3. The Dynamics of Change, 4. Forecasting Governance, 5. The Current Path As It Appears to Be Unfolding, 6. Challenging Futures: Implications for Governance and Human Development, 7. Tipping the Balance, 8. The Future of Governance Globally, Appendix I: Countries in IFs by World Bank Developing Region and Economy Classification, Appendix II: Major Databases and Governance Measures Used in Strengthening Governance Globally, Bibliography, Forecast Tables: Introduction and Glossary, Forecast Tables: Maps of Continents and Subregions, Forecast Tables, Index, Author Notes