Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, University of Michigan, Dearborn, US, the late Paul R. Williamson, formerly Global Vision, Inc., US, Solomon Polachek, Binghamton University, SUNY, US and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, New York University, US

• Contents: Preface and Introduction: Overview of Why this Book MattersFrank W. Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Solomon W. Polachek and Bruce Bueno de MesquitaPART I. THE PROMISE OF GLOBAL FORECASTING 1. Scientific Prediction and the Human ConditionFrank W. Wayman 2. Organizing Diverse Contributions to Global ForecastingPaul R. Williamson PART II. HUMAN NATURE AND PREDICTIONEditors' Introduction to Part II Frank W. Wayman3. Consilience: the Role of Human Nature in the Emergence of Social ArtifactsEdward O. Wilson 4. Darwin's Challenges and the Future of Human SocietyRichard Alexander PART III. THE VALUE OF THE FUTURE Editors' Introduction to Part III Frank W. Wayman5. Properly Discounting the Future: Using Predictions in an Uncertain WorldJ. Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos 6. Long-Term Policy Problems: Definition, Origins, and ResponsesDetlef F. Sprinz 7. Explaining and Predicting Future Environmental Scarcities and ConflictUrs Luterbacher, Dominic Rohner and Ellen Wiegandt PART IV. SOME PROBLEMS ADDRESSED VIA MODELING Editors' Introduction to Part IVFrank W. Wayman8. Forecasting nuclear weapons proliferation: a hazard modelAtsushi Tago and J. David Singer 9. Forecasting Political Developments with the Help of Financial MarketsGerald Schneider PART V. THE GLOBAL SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF PREDICTIONEditors' Introduction to Part VFrank W. Wayman10. Glimpses of the FutureJohn Holland11. Forecasting the Evolution of Cultural Collisions Using Annealing-Nucleation ModelsMyron S. Karasik 12. Power Structure Fluctuations in the "Longue Durée" of the World SystemDavid Wilkinson 13. From Altruism to the Future Frequency of War: How Consilient Explanation Differs from PredictionFrank W. Wayman 14. System Change and Richardson Processes: Application of Social Field TheoryPaul R. Williamson 15. Computational Dynamic Modeling of the Global State SpacePaul R. Williamson PART VI. NEW APPROACHES16. Scientific Revolutions and the Advancement of Explanation and PredictionFrank W. Wayman17. Innovations in Forecasting the Future that One Can Learn from PredictionSolomon W. Polachek18. Predicting the Future to Shape the FutureBruce Bueno de MesquitaIndex

Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, University of Michigan, Dearborn, US, the late Paul R. Williamson, formerly Global Vision, Inc., US, Solomon Polachek, Binghamton University, SUNY, US and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, New York University, US

• Contents: Preface and Introduction: Overview of Why this Book MattersFrank W. Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Solomon W. Polachek and Bruce Bueno de MesquitaPART I. THE PROMISE OF GLOBAL FORECASTING 1. Scientific Prediction and the Human ConditionFrank W. Wayman 2. Organizing Diverse Contributions to Global ForecastingPaul R. Williamson PART II. HUMAN NATURE AND PREDICTIONEditors' Introduction to Part II Frank W. Wayman3. Consilience: the Role of Human Nature in the Emergence of Social ArtifactsEdward O. Wilson 4. Darwin's Challenges and the Future of Human SocietyRichard Alexander PART III. THE VALUE OF THE FUTURE Editors' Introduction to Part III Frank W. Wayman5. Properly Discounting the Future: Using Predictions in an Uncertain WorldJ. Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos 6. Long-Term Policy Problems: Definition, Origins, and ResponsesDetlef F. Sprinz 7. Explaining and Predicting Future Environmental Scarcities and ConflictUrs Luterbacher, Dominic Rohner and Ellen Wiegandt PART IV. SOME PROBLEMS ADDRESSED VIA MODELING Editors' Introduction to Part IVFrank W. Wayman8. Forecasting nuclear weapons proliferation: a hazard modelAtsushi Tago and J. David Singer 9. Forecasting Political Developments with the Help of Financial MarketsGerald Schneider PART V. THE GLOBAL SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF PREDICTIONEditors' Introduction to Part VFrank W. Wayman10. Glimpses of the FutureJohn Holland11. Forecasting the Evolution of Cultural Collisions Using Annealing-Nucleation ModelsMyron S. Karasik 12. Power Structure Fluctuations in the "Longue Durée" of the World SystemDavid Wilkinson 13. From Altruism to the Future Frequency of War: How Consilient Explanation Differs from PredictionFrank W. Wayman 14. System Change and Richardson Processes: Application of Social Field TheoryPaul R. Williamson 15. Computational Dynamic Modeling of the Global State SpacePaul R. Williamson PART VI. NEW APPROACHES16. Scientific Revolutions and the Advancement of Explanation and PredictionFrank W. Wayman17. Innovations in Forecasting the Future that One Can Learn from PredictionSolomon W. Polachek18. Predicting the Future to Shape the FutureBruce Bueno de MesquitaIndex

Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, University of Michigan, Dearborn, US, the late Paul R. Williamson, formerly Global Vision, Inc., US, Solomon Polachek, Binghamton University, SUNY, US and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, New York University, US

• Contents: Preface and Introduction: Overview of Why this Book MattersFrank W. Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Solomon W. Polachek and Bruce Bueno de MesquitaPART I. THE PROMISE OF GLOBAL FORECASTING 1. Scientific Prediction and the Human ConditionFrank W. Wayman 2. Organizing Diverse Contributions to Global ForecastingPaul R. Williamson PART II. HUMAN NATURE AND PREDICTIONEditors' Introduction to Part II Frank W. Wayman3. Consilience: the Role of Human Nature in the Emergence of Social ArtifactsEdward O. Wilson 4. Darwin's Challenges and the Future of Human SocietyRichard Alexander PART III. THE VALUE OF THE FUTURE Editors' Introduction to Part III Frank W. Wayman5. Properly Discounting the Future: Using Predictions in an Uncertain WorldJ. Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos 6. Long-Term Policy Problems: Definition, Origins, and ResponsesDetlef F. Sprinz 7. Explaining and Predicting Future Environmental Scarcities and ConflictUrs Luterbacher, Dominic Rohner and Ellen Wiegandt PART IV. SOME PROBLEMS ADDRESSED VIA MODELING Editors' Introduction to Part IVFrank W. Wayman8. Forecasting nuclear weapons proliferation: a hazard modelAtsushi Tago and J. David Singer 9. Forecasting Political Developments with the Help of Financial MarketsGerald Schneider PART V. THE GLOBAL SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF PREDICTIONEditors' Introduction to Part VFrank W. Wayman10. Glimpses of the FutureJohn Holland11. Forecasting the Evolution of Cultural Collisions Using Annealing-Nucleation ModelsMyron S. Karasik 12. Power Structure Fluctuations in the "Longue Durée" of the World SystemDavid Wilkinson 13. From Altruism to the Future Frequency of War: How Consilient Explanation Differs from PredictionFrank W. Wayman 14. System Change and Richardson Processes: Application of Social Field TheoryPaul R. Williamson 15. Computational Dynamic Modeling of the Global State SpacePaul R. Williamson PART VI. NEW APPROACHES16. Scientific Revolutions and the Advancement of Explanation and PredictionFrank W. Wayman17. Innovations in Forecasting the Future that One Can Learn from PredictionSolomon W. Polachek18. Predicting the Future to Shape the FutureBruce Bueno de MesquitaIndex