Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

Marieka Brouwer Burg (Ph.D. 2011Michigan State University) isLecturer of Anthropology in the Department of Anthropology at the University ofNew Hampshire, New Hampshire, USA. She is interested in the effects oflandscape evolution and climate change on human communities, as well asreconstructing decision processes and perceptions of landscape in the past. Sheuses GIS-based archaeological computational modeling to explore these processesin both Old and New World contexts. Her current research focuses on investigatingthe spatiotemporal dimensions of ancient Maya mobility and socioeconomicinteractions in the central Belize River Valley, Belize.J.H.M. Peeters (Ph.D. 2007 University of Amsterdam) is Associate Professor of Prehistoric Archaeology at the Groningen Institute of Archaeology, University of Groningen.  Research interests include Hunter-Gatherer Archaeology and Ethnography; Landscape Archaeology; Lithic Technology; Computational Modeling; Site Formation Dynamics and Fractal Geometry.  Current research projects include Late Glacial and Holocene Hunter-Gatherer Landscape Use of the North Sea Basin; Mesolithic Lithic Technology; Hunter-Gatherer Pyro-Technology; Dynamics of Intra-Site Spatial Patterning.William A. Lovis (Ph.D. 1973 MichiganState University) is Professor and Curator of Anthropology in the Department ofAnthropology and MSU Museum at Michigan State University, Michigan, USA. His researchinterests include Hunter-Gatherer Archaeology and Ethnography; The Transitionto Horticulture; Applied Theory, Analytic Methods and Research Design; Human-EnvironmentInteractions and Regional Taphonomy; Paleoenvironmental Change; Public Policyincluding Forensic Archaeology, Law Enforcement Training, and Repatriation; GreatLakes/Midwest and Europe. Current research projects include archaeological sitetaphonomy and preservation in the Lake Michigan coastal dunes, Mesolithicregional settlement and mobility in Yorkshire, northern England, and hemisphericclimate impacts on Great Lakes coastal dune evolution and activation cycling.

• Preface.- Chapter 1:Introduction (MariekaBrouwer Burg, J.H.M. Peeters, and William A. Lovis).- Chapter 2: IsThere a Research Design Role for Sensitivity Analysis (SA) in Archaeological Modeling? (WilliamA. Lovis).- Chapter 3: EpistemicConsiderations About Uncertainty and Model Selection in ComputationalArchaeology: A Case Study on Exploratory Modeling (J.H.M. Peeters and Jan-Willem Romeijn).- Chapter 4: GIS-BasedModeling of Archaeological Dynamics (GMAD): Weaknesses, Strengths, and theUtility of Sensitivity Analysis (Marieka Brouwer Burg).- Chapter 5: Assessing Nonlinear Behaviors in anAgent Based Model (Jon W. Carroll).- Chapter 6: ScaleDependency in Agent-Based Modeling: How Many Time Steps? How Many Simulations?How Many Agents? (Joshua Watts).- Chapter 7: TheSensitivity of Demographic Characteristics to the Strength of the PopulationStabilizing Mechanism in a Model Hunter-Gatherer System(Andrew A. White).- Chapter 8: ArchaeologicalSimulation and the Testing Paradigm (Thomas G. Whitley).- Chapter 9: “Uncertainties” (Sander van der Leeuw).