This book is the outcome of the conference "Global Environmental Change: Challenges to Science and Society in Southeastern Europe" organized by the Scienti c Coordination Center for Global Change (SCCGC) at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences jointly with the Austrian Science and Research Liaison Of cesLjubljanaandSo a(ASO).TheeventwassupportedbytheFederalMinistry ofScienceandResearchoftheRepublicofAustriaintheframeworkofitsSEEs- encecooperationinitiative.SponsorshipwasalsoprovidedfromtheKnight-Staneva Foundation for Sustainability and Future Environments (USA) and the EC FP6 ADAGIOproject(www.adagio-eu.org). The Conference celebrated the anniversary of the founding of the SCCGC in 1997asNationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange(NCCGC).Theideafor suchacenterevolvedattheJune1997Workshop"GlobalChangeandBulgaria" heldintheAmericanUniversityinBulgaria,Blagoevgrad,sponsoredbytheUS National Science Foundation via the Center for Integrated Regional Assessment (CIRA) at the Pennsylvania State University.In examining the competencies Bulgarian scientists would bring to the study of climate change and its impacts, thatworkshopidenti edanumberofresearchprioritiesandfuturestrategiestobe pursued. The workshop resulted in two publications, Globalnite promeni i 1 2 B lgari andGlobalChangeandBulgaria. Themostimportantfuturestrategyfromthe1997Workshopwastheproposalto theleadershipoftheBulgarianAcademyofSciencesforformationoftheNCCGC, withtherecommendationthatitbeheadedbyAcademicianDimitarMishev,dir- toroftheAcademy'sSolar-TerrestrialIn uencesLaboratory,andmembershipfrom avarietyofinstitutesandotherorganizations.InJuly1997,theNCCGCcameinto being and operated under that title until the death of its president, Academician Mishev,in2003. 1 1999.So a:NationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange,BulgarianAcademyofSciences, 370 pp. (Todor Hristov, C. Gregory Knight, Dimitar Mishev, Marieta P. Staneva, editors; in Bulgarian).ISBN954-90485-1-9. 2 2000.So a:NationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange,BulgarianAcademyofSciences, 350+viiipp.(MarietaP.Staneva,C.GregoryKnight,TodorN.Hristov,DimitarMishev,editors). ISBN954-90485-2-7. v vi Preface Duringthatinterim,oneoftheresearchprioritieswasinitiated,namelyastudy ofthe1982-1994Bulgariandroughtasananalogoffutureclimatechange,realized asaprojectcoordinatedinBulgariabyProfessorIvanRaevoftheForestResearch InstituteandintheUSbyC.GregoryKnightofthePennsylvaniaStateUniversity, withfundingfromtheUSNationalScienceFoundationviaCIRA.Thatprojectalso resultedintwobooks, Zasuxavaneto v B lgari : s vremenen analog za 3 klimatiqni promeni and Drought in Bulgaria: A Contemporary Analog of 4 ClimateChange. The NCCGC played an important role in the creation of the Industrial TransformationSciencePlanoftheInternationalHumanDimensionsProgramme in1998-1999.TheCentrealsoco-sponsoredaworkshoponIntegratedRegional Assessment of Climate Change held in Budapest in 1999 and hosted the So a workshoponHumanDimensionsofGlobalChangein2000.

This book is the outcome of the conference "Global Environmental Change: Challenges to Science and Society in Southeastern Europe" organized by the Scienti c Coordination Center for Global Change (SCCGC) at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences jointly with the Austrian Science and Research Liaison Of cesLjubljanaandSo a(ASO).TheeventwassupportedbytheFederalMinistry ofScienceandResearchoftheRepublicofAustriaintheframeworkofitsSEEs- encecooperationinitiative.SponsorshipwasalsoprovidedfromtheKnight-Staneva Foundation for Sustainability and Future Environments (USA) and the EC FP6 ADAGIOproject(www.adagio-eu.org). The Conference celebrated the anniversary of the founding of the SCCGC in 1997asNationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange(NCCGC).Theideafor suchacenterevolvedattheJune1997Workshop"GlobalChangeandBulgaria" heldintheAmericanUniversityinBulgaria,Blagoevgrad,sponsoredbytheUS National Science Foundation via the Center for Integrated Regional Assessment (CIRA) at the Pennsylvania State University.In examining the competencies Bulgarian scientists would bring to the study of climate change and its impacts, thatworkshopidenti edanumberofresearchprioritiesandfuturestrategiestobe pursued. The workshop resulted in two publications, Globalnite promeni i 1 2 B lgari andGlobalChangeandBulgaria. Themostimportantfuturestrategyfromthe1997Workshopwastheproposalto theleadershipoftheBulgarianAcademyofSciencesforformationoftheNCCGC, withtherecommendationthatitbeheadedbyAcademicianDimitarMishev,dir- toroftheAcademy'sSolar-TerrestrialIn uencesLaboratory,andmembershipfrom avarietyofinstitutesandotherorganizations.InJuly1997,theNCCGCcameinto being and operated under that title until the death of its president, Academician Mishev,in2003. 1 1999.So a:NationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange,BulgarianAcademyofSciences, 370 pp. (Todor Hristov, C. Gregory Knight, Dimitar Mishev, Marieta P. Staneva, editors; in Bulgarian).ISBN954-90485-1-9. 2 2000.So a:NationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange,BulgarianAcademyofSciences, 350+viiipp.(MarietaP.Staneva,C.GregoryKnight,TodorN.Hristov,DimitarMishev,editors). ISBN954-90485-2-7. v vi Preface Duringthatinterim,oneoftheresearchprioritieswasinitiated,namelyastudy ofthe1982-1994Bulgariandroughtasananalogoffutureclimatechange,realized asaprojectcoordinatedinBulgariabyProfessorIvanRaevoftheForestResearch InstituteandintheUSbyC.GregoryKnightofthePennsylvaniaStateUniversity, withfundingfromtheUSNationalScienceFoundationviaCIRA.Thatprojectalso resultedintwobooks, Zasuxavaneto v B lgari : s vremenen analog za 3 klimatiqni promeni and Drought in Bulgaria: A Contemporary Analog of 4 ClimateChange. The NCCGC played an important role in the creation of the Industrial TransformationSciencePlanoftheInternationalHumanDimensionsProgramme in1998-1999.TheCentrealsoco-sponsoredaworkshoponIntegratedRegional Assessment of Climate Change held in Budapest in 1999 and hosted the So a workshoponHumanDimensionsofGlobalChangein2000.

This book is the outcome of the conference "Global Environmental Change: Challenges to Science and Society in Southeastern Europe" organized by the Scienti c Coordination Center for Global Change (SCCGC) at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences jointly with the Austrian Science and Research Liaison Of cesLjubljanaandSo a(ASO).TheeventwassupportedbytheFederalMinistry ofScienceandResearchoftheRepublicofAustriaintheframeworkofitsSEEs- encecooperationinitiative.SponsorshipwasalsoprovidedfromtheKnight-Staneva Foundation for Sustainability and Future Environments (USA) and the EC FP6 ADAGIOproject(www.adagio-eu.org). The Conference celebrated the anniversary of the founding of the SCCGC in 1997asNationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange(NCCGC).Theideafor suchacenterevolvedattheJune1997Workshop"GlobalChangeandBulgaria" heldintheAmericanUniversityinBulgaria,Blagoevgrad,sponsoredbytheUS National Science Foundation via the Center for Integrated Regional Assessment (CIRA) at the Pennsylvania State University.In examining the competencies Bulgarian scientists would bring to the study of climate change and its impacts, thatworkshopidenti edanumberofresearchprioritiesandfuturestrategiestobe pursued. The workshop resulted in two publications, Globalnite promeni i 1 2 B lgari andGlobalChangeandBulgaria. Themostimportantfuturestrategyfromthe1997Workshopwastheproposalto theleadershipoftheBulgarianAcademyofSciencesforformationoftheNCCGC, withtherecommendationthatitbeheadedbyAcademicianDimitarMishev,dir- toroftheAcademy'sSolar-TerrestrialIn uencesLaboratory,andmembershipfrom avarietyofinstitutesandotherorganizations.InJuly1997,theNCCGCcameinto being and operated under that title until the death of its president, Academician Mishev,in2003. 1 1999.So a:NationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange,BulgarianAcademyofSciences, 370 pp. (Todor Hristov, C. Gregory Knight, Dimitar Mishev, Marieta P. Staneva, editors; in Bulgarian).ISBN954-90485-1-9. 2 2000.So a:NationalCoordinationCenterforGlobalChange,BulgarianAcademyofSciences, 350+viiipp.(MarietaP.Staneva,C.GregoryKnight,TodorN.Hristov,DimitarMishev,editors). ISBN954-90485-2-7. v vi Preface Duringthatinterim,oneoftheresearchprioritieswasinitiated,namelyastudy ofthe1982-1994Bulgariandroughtasananalogoffutureclimatechange,realized asaprojectcoordinatedinBulgariabyProfessorIvanRaevoftheForestResearch InstituteandintheUSbyC.GregoryKnightofthePennsylvaniaStateUniversity, withfundingfromtheUSNationalScienceFoundationviaCIRA.Thatprojectalso resultedintwobooks, Zasuxavaneto v B lgari : s vremenen analog za 3 klimatiqni promeni and Drought in Bulgaria: A Contemporary Analog of 4 ClimateChange. The NCCGC played an important role in the creation of the Industrial TransformationSciencePlanoftheInternationalHumanDimensionsProgramme in1998-1999.TheCentrealsoco-sponsoredaworkshoponIntegratedRegional Assessment of Climate Change held in Budapest in 1999 and hosted the So a workshoponHumanDimensionsofGlobalChangein2000.