Realistic Hope

Angela Wilkinson, PhD (Physics), is Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford and former Director of Foresight for the OECD. She is a recognised and respected global leading scholar and practitioner in scenario planning and foresight. She spent a decade in Shell's global scenario team. Betty Sue Flowers, PhD (Literature), is Professor Emeritus at UT-Austin and former Director of the Johnson Presidential Library. She has served as a moderator for executive seminars at the Aspen Institute, consultant for NASA, CIA, and the Secretary of the Navy, and scenario writer for organizations including Shell, the OAS, Eskom, IPIECA, and the WBCSD.

"This book is a clear expression of the belief that vision, foresight, and multilateralism can deliver on our realistic hopes for a peaceful and prosperous future." - Angel Gurría, Secretary-General, OECD

• Foreword: Realising Hope Ged R. Davis, former Managing Director, World Economic Forum (Davos) and co-author, Catalytic Governance Introduction: Building Better Futures 1. Making Globalisation Work Carl Dahlman, former Head of Research, Development Centre, OECD 2. Energy: A Better Life with a Healthy Planet Jeremy Bentham, Vice President, Global Business Environment and Head of Shell Scenarios, Royal Dutch Shell 3. Are Major Wars More Likely in the Future? Joëlle Jenny, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University and former Director for Security Policy and Conflict Prevention, EU External Action Service Alyssa Stalsberg Canelli, Assistant Director, Experiential Learning and Teaching, Brandeis University 4. The Future of Work Peter Schwartz Senior Vice President Strategic Planning, Salesforce.com and author of Inevitable Surprises. 5. Digital Technologies: Every Cloud has a Silver Lining Claire Naughtin, Research Scientist, Strategic Foresight, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's Data61 Stefan Hajkowicz, Principal Scientist, Strategic Foresight, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's Data61 and author, Making Globalisation Work 6. Cities to the Rescue: A New Scale for Dealing with Climate Change Tim O'Riordan, Emeritus Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia and head of the sustainability policy programme for the British Academy Viviana M. Jiménez, researcher, UN Environment Programme and the University of Oxford Keith Clarke, CBE, Chair of Future Cities Catapult and Chair of Forum for the Future 7. The Future of Global Poverty Claudia Juech, Executive Director, Cloudera Foundation and former Managing Director of Strategic Insights, Rockefeller Foundation Chukwudi Onike, Program Associate for Strategic Insights, Rockefeller Foundation 8. Transcending Boundaries - the Realistic Hope for Water Alejandro Litovsky, Chief Executive, Earth Security Group 9. Health Systems: Doomed to Fail or about to be Saved by a Copernican Shift? Kristel Van der Elst, CEO of The Global Foresight Group and former Head of Strategic Foresight, World Economic Forum (Davos) Rudi Pauwels, Founder and President, Praesens Foundation, and co-founder, Biocartis, Tibotec, Virco, and Galapagos Genomics 10. Seeding the Future: Challenges to Global Food Systems Ariella Helfgott, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University and Senior Researcher, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Joost Vervoort, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University and Senior Researcher, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford 11. The Great Livestock Trade-off: Food Production, Poverty Alleviation, and Climate Change Luke York, PhD, School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading Claire Heffernan, Director, London's International Development Centre 12. Rethinking Economics for Global Challenges Christian Kastrop, Program Director, Bertelsmann Foundation and former Director, Policy Studies Branch, OECD 13. Leadership and the Future of Democratic Societies Martin Mayer, co-founder, YouMeO Verena Ringler, Stiftung Mercator 14. Prototyping the Future: A New Approach to Whole-of-Society Visioning Alenka Smerkolj, minister responsible for strategic planning and development, Government of Slovenia Timotej †oo¿, National Development Strategy Lead, Government of Slovenia Five Principles of Realistic Hope Angela Wilkinson and Betty Sue Flowers Epilogue: From the Eclipse of Utopia to the Restoration of Hope Jay Ogilvy, Co-founder, Global Business Network Acknowledgements Index