Terrorism, Security, and Computation – serie

This book analyzes the multimodal verbal and nonverbal behavior of humans in both an artificial game, based on the well-known Mafia and Resistance games, as well as selected other settings. This book develops statistical results linking different types of facial expressions (e.g. smile, pursed lips, raised eyebrows), vocal features (e.g., pitch, loudness) and linguistic features (e.g., dominant language, turn length) with both unary behaviors (e.g. is person X lying?) to binary behaviors (Is person X dominant compared to person Y? Does X trust Y? Does X like Y?). In addition, this book describes machine learning and computer vision-based algorithms that can be used to predict deception, as well as the visual focus of attention of people during discussions that can be linked to many binary behaviors. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of both social scientists and computer scientists.Meetings are at the very heart of human activity. Whether you are involved in a business meeting or in a diplomatic negotiation, such an event has multiple actors, some cooperative and some adversarial. Some actors may be deceptive, others may have complex relationships with others in the group. This book consists of a set of 11 chapters that describe the factors that link human behavior in group settings and attitudes to facial and voice characteristics.Researchers working in social sciences (communication, psychology, cognitive science) with an interest in studying the link between human interpersonal behavior and facial/speech/linguistic characteristics will be interested in this book. Computer scientists, who are interested in developing machine learning and deep learning based models of human behavior in group settings will also be interested in purchasing this book.

This book analyzes the multimodal verbal and nonverbal behavior of humans in both an artificial game, based on the well-known Mafia and Resistance games, as well as selected other settings. This book develops statistical results linking different types of facial expressions (e.g. smile, pursed lips, raised eyebrows), vocal features (e.g., pitch, loudness) and linguistic features (e.g., dominant language, turn length) with both unary behaviors (e.g. is person X lying?) to binary behaviors (Is person X dominant compared to person Y? Does X trust Y? Does X like Y?). In addition, this book describes machine learning and computer vision-based algorithms that can be used to predict deception, as well as the visual focus of attention of people during discussions that can be linked to many binary behaviors. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of both social scientists and computer scientists.Meetings are at the very heart of human activity. Whether you are involved in a business meeting or in a diplomatic negotiation, such an event has multiple actors, some cooperative and some adversarial. Some actors may be deceptive, others may have complex relationships with others in the group. This book consists of a set of 11 chapters that describe the factors that link human behavior in group settings and attitudes to facial and voice characteristics.Researchers working in social sciences (communication, psychology, cognitive science) with an interest in studying the link between human interpersonal behavior and facial/speech/linguistic characteristics will be interested in this book. Computer scientists, who are interested in developing machine learning and deep learning based models of human behavior in group settings will also be interested in purchasing this book.

This is the first study of Boko Haram that brings advanced data-driven, machine learning models to both learn models capable of predicting a wide range of attacks carried out by Boko Haram, as well as develop data-driven policies to shape Boko Haram’s behavior and reduce attacks by them. This book also identifies conditions that predict sexual violence, suicide bombings and attempted bombings, abduction, arson, looting, and targeting of government officials and security installations. After reducing Boko Haram’s history to a spreadsheet containing monthly information about different types of attacks and different circumstances prevailing over a 9 year period, this book introduces Temporal Probabilistic (TP) rules that can be automatically learned from data and are easy to explain to policy makers and security experts. This book additionally reports on over 1 year of forecasts made using the model in order to validate predictive accuracy. It also introduces a policy computation method to rein in Boko Haram’s attacks.Applied machine learning researchers, machine learning experts and predictive modeling experts agree that this book is a valuable learning asset. Counter-terrorism experts, national and international security experts, public policy experts and Africa experts will also agree this book is a valuable learning tool.

This is the first study of Boko Haram that brings advanced data-driven, machine learning models to both learn models capable of predicting a wide range of attacks carried out by Boko Haram, as well as develop data-driven policies to shape Boko Haram’s behavior and reduce attacks by them. This book also identifies conditions that predict sexual violence, suicide bombings and attempted bombings, abduction, arson, looting, and targeting of government officials and security installations. After reducing Boko Haram’s history to a spreadsheet containing monthly information about different types of attacks and different circumstances prevailing over a 9 year period, this book introduces Temporal Probabilistic (TP) rules that can be automatically learned from data and are easy to explain to policy makers and security experts. This book additionally reports on over 1 year of forecasts made using the model in order to validate predictive accuracy. It also introduces a policy computation method to rein in Boko Haram’s attacks.Applied machine learning researchers, machine learning experts and predictive modeling experts agree that this book is a valuable learning asset. Counter-terrorism experts, national and international security experts, public policy experts and Africa experts will also agree this book is a valuable learning tool.

This book offers a practical approach to conducting research in foreign languages on topics with a global nexus. It introduces the problem researchers face when getting started with a research problem, such as setting up the research environment and establishing goals for the research.  The researcher then needs to prepares and to conduct foreign-language research by generating key terms and searching the right places where the information they seek is most likely to be stored.  Using the appropriate advanced search operators, the researcher narrows down the search results to the desired sources, thereby eliminating the irrelevant sources.  Specialized knowledge of country-specific domains advances the specificity and relevance of the researcher’s efforts.   The methods and tools demonstrated in this book are applicable to a variety of academic and practical fields.  A doctor may ask “what are other experts in my field saying about ABC disease?”  A sommelier may ask “where else in the world are XYZ grape varietals grown?”  A businessman may ask “who are my global competitors in my market?”  A doctoral student may ask “have any other students at universities abroad ever written a dissertation about my topic, too?”  With the tools and techniques demonstrated in this book, all of these questions are answerable. This book concludes with chapters on translation and citation methods, and includes three case studies that demonstrate the practical use of the methods discussed above.  This book targets academic researchers as well as students and faculty.  This book will also be a good fit as an assigned reading for a college course on thesis/dissertation research.

This book offers a practical approach to conducting research in foreign languages on topics with a global nexus. It introduces the problem researchers face when getting started with a research problem, such as setting up the research environment and establishing goals for the research.  The researcher then needs to prepares and to conduct foreign-language research by generating key terms and searching the right places where the information they seek is most likely to be stored.  Using the appropriate advanced search operators, the researcher narrows down the search results to the desired sources, thereby eliminating the irrelevant sources.  Specialized knowledge of country-specific domains advances the specificity and relevance of the researcher’s efforts.   The methods and tools demonstrated in this book are applicable to a variety of academic and practical fields.  A doctor may ask “what are other experts in my field saying about ABC disease?”  A sommelier may ask “where else in the world are XYZ grape varietals grown?”  A businessman may ask “who are my global competitors in my market?”  A doctoral student may ask “have any other students at universities abroad ever written a dissertation about my topic, too?”  With the tools and techniques demonstrated in this book, all of these questions are answerable. This book concludes with chapters on translation and citation methods, and includes three case studies that demonstrate the practical use of the methods discussed above.  This book targets academic researchers as well as students and faculty.  This book will also be a good fit as an assigned reading for a college course on thesis/dissertation research.

Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, North Korea and India are engaged in foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) in the democratic practices of countries in Europe, America, Africa and Asia. The Ukraine, in particular, has borne the brunt of information warfare perpetrated by Russia. This book presents 32 case studies of FIMI attacks, who perpetrated them, who they were targeting, the channels that carried their disinformation, the effectiveness of their campaigns and the countermeasures employed against them. In addition, it includes a synthesis of 20 interviews with experts in disinformation and concludes with findings and recommendations.Uniquely, the book includes a detailed analysis of the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) used by attackers and, in particular, deepfake technologies for text, image, audio and video deceptions. The case studies highlight the proliferation and inventiveness of different TTPs used by FIMI attackers to evade detection and continue to spread their malign messages.  Key features:Offers the first book on foreign information manipulation and interferenceExamines numerous case studies of FIMI attacks, the perpetrators as well as targets Proposes a structured way of conducting FIMI case studiesAnalyses the TTPs used to sow disinformation and create divisions in societyThe authors commend this book to FIMI researchers, policymakers, legislators, academics, civil society organisations and fact checkers. The hope is that it will raise stakeholder and public awareness about the range of tactics that attackers employ and what measures can be effective in countering this insidious and growing threat to democracies. Dr David Wright is a Director and Chief Research Officer of Trilateral Research, a company he co-founded that provides responsible AI in the form of software, services and research. He coordinates the EU-funded ATHENA project (November 2023-October 2026).

One of the most influential actors in spreading Islamist violence across the Sahel is Jama’at Nasr Al Islam Wal Muslimin (JNIM).This book provides the first systematic quantitative analysis of JNIM’s behavior by analyzing a 12-year database of JNIM’s attacks and the environment surrounding JNIM. This book leverages AI/ML predictive models to accurately predict almost 40 types of attacks using over 80 independent variables. This book describes a set of temporal probabilistic rules that state that when the environment in which the group operates satisfies some conditions, then an attack of a certain type will likely occur in the next N months.  This provides a deep, easy to comprehend understanding of the conditions under which JNIM carries various kinds of attacks up to 6 months into the future. This book will serve as an invaluable guide to scholars (computer scientists, political scientists, policy makers). Military officers, intelligence personnel, and government employees, who seek to understand, predict, and eventually mitigate attacks by JNIM and bring peace to the nations of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will want to purchase this book as well.

This book provides a comprehensive overview of how Ukraine has developed systems to counter disinformation amid ongoing hybrid threats. It offers practical insights into building national resilience against information warfare in a real-time war environment.The problem this book sets out to solve is how states and societies can design and implement effective, ethical, and scalable counter-disinformation systems in an era of information warfare. Drawing on Ukraine's experience since 2014, Counter Disinformation System Development in Ukraine explores the evolution of its legal frameworks, strategic communications, media literacy efforts, cybersecurity infrastructure, and public-private cooperation. These elements are examined as interconnected pillars supporting the country's broader information resilience strategy. The book maps the institutional architecture behind Ukraine's response, from government agencies and NGOs to tech platforms and civil society actors, highlighting both successful practices and persistent challenges.  Key topics include the role of digital platforms and AI in identifying and countering malign narratives, the development of early warning and rapid response systems, the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration, and the critical need for democratic safeguards to prevent overreach. The book also addresses how Russia's disinformation campaigns have evolved over time, and how Ukraine's countermeasures have adapted in response. These topics are highly relevant not only for countries facing similar threats, but also for policymakers, media professionals, and researchers interested in defending democratic values in the digital age. As disinformation becomes more sophisticated and globally networked, Ukraine's case provides a real-world model for building adaptive and resilient systems under pressure.This book is intended for policy-makers, strategic communication professionals, academics, security experts, civil society leaders, and anyone engaged in the fight against disinformation in democratic societies.  By presenting Ukraine's hard-earned lessons and tested practices, it offers a framework that can be adapted in other national or regional contexts.

Advance Praise for Indian Mujahideen: Computational Analysis and Public Policy “This book presents a highly innovative computational approach to analyzing the strategic behavior of terrorist groups and formulating counter-terrorism policies. It would be very useful for international security analysts and policymakers.” Uzi Arad, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel and Head, Israel National Security Council (2009-2011) “An important book on a complex security problem. Issues have been analysed in depth based on quality research. Insightful and well-balanced in describing the way forward.” Naresh Chandra, Indian Ambassador to the USA (1996-2001) and Cabinet Secretary (1990-1992). “An objective and clinical account of the origins, aims, extra-territorial links and modus-operandi, of a growingly dangerous terrorist organization that challenges the federal, democratic, secular and pluralistic ethos of India’s polity. The authors have meticulously researched and analysed the multi-faceted challenges that the “Indian Mujahideen” poses and realistically dwelt on the ways in which these challenges could be faced and overcome.” G. Parthasarathy, High Commissioner of India to Australia (1995-1998) and Pakistan (1998-2000). This book provides the first in-depth look at how advanced mathematics and modern computing technology can influence insights on analysis and policies directed at the Indian Mujahideen (IM) terrorist group. The book also summarizes how the IM group is committed to the destabilization of India by leveraging links with other terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, and through support from the Pakistani Government and Pakistan’s intelligence service.Foreword by The Hon. Louis J. Freeh.

This book takes a quantitative look at ICT-generated event data to highlight current trends and issues in Nigeria at the local, state and national levels. Without emphasizing a specific policy or agenda, it provides context and perspective on the relative spatial-temporal distribution of conflict factors in Nigeria. The analysis of violence at state and local levels reveals a fractal pattern of overlapping ecosystems of conflict risk that must be understood for effective, conflict-sensitive approaches to development and direct conflict mitigation efforts.Moving beyond analyses that use a broad religious, ethnic or historical lens, this book focuses on the country’s 774 local government areas and incorporates over 10,000 incidents coded by location, date and indicator to identify patterns in conflict risk between 2009 and 2013. It is the first book to track conflict in Nigeria during this period, which covers the Amnesty Agreement in the Niger Delta and the birth of Boko Haram in the North. It also includes conflict risk heat maps of each state and trend-lines of violence. The authors conclude with a discussion of the nuanced factors that lead to escalating violence, such as resource competition and trends in terrorism during this critical point in Nigeria’s history.Violence in Nigeria is designed as a reference for researchers and practitioners working in security, peacebuilding and development, including policy makers, intelligence experts, diplomats, national defense and homeland security experts. Advanced-level students studying public policy, international relations or computer science will also find this book useful as a secondary textbook or reference.

This is the first book  that uses cyber-vulnerability data to explore the vulnerability of over four million machines per year, covering a two-year period as reported by Symantec. Analyzing more than 20 billion telemetry reports comprising malware and binary reputation reports, this book quantifies the cyber-vulnerability of 44 countries for which at least 500 hosts were monitored. Chapters explain the context for this data and its impact, along with explaining how the cyber-vulnerability is calculated. This book also contains a detailed summary of the cyber-vulnerability of dozens of nations according to the percentage of infected hosts and number of infections. It identifies relationships between piracy rates, GDP and other country indicators. The book contains detailed information about potential cyber-security policies that 44 countries have announced, as well as an analysis of gaps in cyber-security policies in general.The Global Cyber-Vulnerability Report targets researchers and  professionals including government and military workers, policy-makers and law-makers  working in cybersecurity or the web intelligence fields. Advanced-level students in computer science will also find this report valuable as a reference.

This book takes a quantitative look at ICT-generated event data to highlight current trends and issues in Nigeria at the local, state and national levels. Without emphasizing a specific policy or agenda, it provides context and perspective on the relative spatial-temporal distribution of conflict factors in Nigeria. The analysis of violence at state and local levels reveals a fractal pattern of overlapping ecosystems of conflict risk that must be understood for effective, conflict-sensitive approaches to development and direct conflict mitigation efforts.Moving beyond analyses that use a broad religious, ethnic or historical lens, this book focuses on the country’s 774 local government areas and incorporates over 10,000 incidents coded by location, date and indicator to identify patterns in conflict risk between 2009 and 2013. It is the first book to track conflict in Nigeria during this period, which covers the Amnesty Agreement in the Niger Delta and the birth of Boko Haram in the North. It also includes conflict risk heat maps of each state and trend-lines of violence. The authors conclude with a discussion of the nuanced factors that lead to escalating violence, such as resource competition and trends in terrorism during this critical point in Nigeria’s history.Violence in Nigeria is designed as a reference for researchers and practitioners working in security, peacebuilding and development, including policy makers, intelligence experts, diplomats, national defense and homeland security experts. Advanced-level students studying public policy, international relations or computer science will also find this book useful as a secondary textbook or reference.

Advance Praise for Indian Mujahideen: Computational Analysis and Public Policy “This book presents a highly innovative computational approach to analyzing the strategic behavior of terrorist groups and formulating counter-terrorism policies. It would be very useful for international security analysts and policymakers.” Uzi Arad, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel and Head, Israel National Security Council (2009-2011) “An important book on a complex security problem. Issues have been analysed in depth based on quality research. Insightful and well-balanced in describing the way forward.” Naresh Chandra, Indian Ambassador to the USA (1996-2001) and Cabinet Secretary (1990-1992). “An objective and clinical account of the origins, aims, extra-territorial links and modus-operandi, of a growingly dangerous terrorist organization that challenges the federal, democratic, secular and pluralistic ethos of India’s polity. The authors have meticulously researched and analysed the multi-faceted challenges that the “Indian Mujahideen” poses and realistically dwelt on the ways in which these challenges could be faced and overcome.” G. Parthasarathy, High Commissioner of India to Australia (1995-1998) and Pakistan (1998-2000). This book provides the first in-depth look at how advanced mathematics and modern computing technology can influence insights on analysis and policies directed at the Indian Mujahideen (IM) terrorist group. The book also summarizes how the IM group is committed to the destabilization of India by leveraging links with other terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, and through support from the Pakistani Government and Pakistan’s intelligence service.Foreword by The Hon. Louis J. Freeh.

This book covers the security and safety of CBRNE assets and management, and illustrates which risks may emerge and how to counter them through an enhanced risk management approach. It also tackles the CBRNE-Cyber threats, their risk mitigation measures and the relevance of raising awareness and education enforcing a CBRNE-Cy security culture. The authors present international instruments and legislation to deal with these threats, for instance the UNSCR1540.The authors address a multitude of stakeholders, and have a multidisciplinary nature dealing with cross-cutting areas like the convergence of biological and chemical, the development of edging technologies, and in the cyber domain, the impelling risks due to the use of malwares against critical subsystems of CBRN facilities. Examples are provided in this book.Academicians, diplomats, technicians and engineers working in the chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, explosive and cyber fields will find this bookvaluable as a reference. Students studying in these related fields will also find this book useful as a reference.

This book provides a readable and elegant presentation of the principles of anomaly detection,providing an easy introduction for newcomers to the field. A large number of algorithms are succinctly described, along with a presentation of their strengths and weaknesses.The authors also cover algorithms that address different kinds of problems of interest with single and multiple time series data and multi-dimensional data. New ensemble anomaly detection algorithms are  described, utilizing the benefits provided by diverse algorithms, each of which work well on some kinds of data.With advancements in technology and the extensive use of the internet as a medium for communications and commerce, there has been a tremendous increase in the threats faced by individuals and organizations from attackers and criminal entities. Variations in the observable behaviors of individuals (from others and from their own past behaviors) have been found to be useful in predicting potential problems of various kinds. Hence computer scientists and statisticians have been conducting research on automatically identifying anomalies in large datasets. This book will primarily target practitioners and researchers who are newcomers to the area of modern anomaly detection techniques. Advanced-level students in computer science will also find this book helpful with their studies.

This is the first book  that uses cyber-vulnerability data to explore the vulnerability of over four million machines per year, covering a two-year period as reported by Symantec. Analyzing more than 20 billion telemetry reports comprising malware and binary reputation reports, this book quantifies the cyber-vulnerability of 44 countries for which at least 500 hosts were monitored. Chapters explain the context for this data and its impact, along with explaining how the cyber-vulnerability is calculated. This book also contains a detailed summary of the cyber-vulnerability of dozens of nations according to the percentage of infected hosts and number of infections. It identifies relationships between piracy rates, GDP and other country indicators. The book contains detailed information about potential cyber-security policies that 44 countries have announced, as well as an analysis of gaps in cyber-security policies in general.The Global Cyber-Vulnerability Report targets researchers and  professionals including government and military workers, policy-makers and law-makers  working in cybersecurity or the web intelligence fields. Advanced-level students in computer science will also find this report valuable as a reference.

This book covers the security and safety of CBRNE assets and management, and illustrates which risks may emerge and how to counter them through an enhanced risk management approach. It also tackles the CBRNE-Cyber threats, their risk mitigation measures and the relevance of raising awareness and education enforcing a CBRNE-Cy security culture. The authors present international instruments and legislation to deal with these threats, for instance the UNSCR1540.The authors address a multitude of stakeholders, and have a multidisciplinary nature dealing with cross-cutting areas like the convergence of biological and chemical, the development of edging technologies, and in the cyber domain, the impelling risks due to the use of malwares against critical subsystems of CBRN facilities. Examples are provided in this book.Academicians, diplomats, technicians and engineers working in the chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, explosive and cyber fields will find this bookvaluable as a reference. Students studying in these related fields will also find this book useful as a reference.