Latin America and the Caribbean Demographic Observatory / Observatorio Demogra?fico Ame?rica Latina Y El Caribe – serie

This 2024 edition of the Demographic Observatory presents the main demographic indicators for Latin America and the Caribbean according to the 2024 revision of the United Nations population estimates and projections and in comparison with the 2000 revision, with the objective of highlighting the main demographic changes that have occurred in the region since the beginning of the 21st century. Analysis of the two revisions shows that birth and death rates declined more rapidly than projected in 2000, except during the pandemic when the latter increased sharply, and that the migration balance was more negative than expected. The change in the age structure of the population resulting from the accelerated demographic transition, as well as the persistent fall in fertility to below replacement rate levels, add to the challenges already existing in the region, given its high levels of socio-economic inequality and access to government goods and services. Ageing has implications for all areas of public policy and, most notably, leads to increased demand for long-term care services. Undoubtedly, the demographics of the present and the future are key to building more productive, inclusive and sustainable societies in Latin America and the Caribbean.

This publication compiles selected indicators concerning population estimates and projections at the national level for 38 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. The estimates and projections for the 20 Latin American countries were prepared by CELADE–Population Division of ECLAC, together with the United Nations Population Division (UNPD). The figures for the Caribbean countries were prepared by UNPD. In this edition, the customary analytical chapter looks at recent population trends in the region. The technical notes list the data sources consulted for each country.

This publication uses national sources of data on deaths from civil registry offices and health information systems to analyse the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on mortality in the countries of the region. In addition, by means of a simulation exercise based on different scenarios of COVID-19 prevalence rates, it estimates the impact of COVID-19-related deaths on life expectancy at birth for the 38 countries and territories of Latin America and the Caribbean. The information used to prepare this edition of the Demographic Observatory corresponds to official information on deaths and causes of death available at 31 October 2020, as well as population estimates and projections prepared by the United Nations.

This edition of the Demographic Observatory analyses the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the population and housing censuses of the countries of the region, based on information available until October 2021, seeking to identify possible areas of action to obtain relevant information in support of policies and programmes aimed at overcoming the difficulties caused by the pandemic, and measure the effects of the crisis on the population.

The 2022 edition of the Demographic Observatory offers selected indicators of population estimates and projections for 38 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean. The estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE in conjunction with the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) for the 20 countries of Latin America; those for the 18 Caribbean countries and territories were prepared by UNPD. This new release updates previously published figures and uses the cohort component method by single ages and calendar years, unlike the 2019 edition, which was prepared for years ending in 0 and 5 and for age groups.

In this edition of the Demographic Observatory, the impact of population dynamics is illustrated through an analysis of selected indicators of labour force estimates and projections by sex, age and area of residence for the 1980-2050 period in the 20 countries of Latin America, using the 2023 Revision prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The analysis highlights that structural changes in the labour force over the 1980-2022 period and projections through to 2050 show markedly different scenarios depending on age group, sex, and urban or rural area. This has implications for public policy in areas such as labour, education, health and care. The report also outlines the methodology applied and the data sources used to produce the estimates and projections.

This 2025 edition of the Demographic Observatory offers an in-depth and updated analysis of historical and recent fertility trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a special focus on the phenomenon of low fertility. Since 2015, the total fertility rate has remained below the replacement level and currently stands at 1.8 children per woman in Latin America and just 1.5 children per woman in the Caribbean. Drawing on various demographic sources and supported by the latest scientific literature, this publication seeks to provide information on the current situation in the countries and territories of the region with regard to fertility levels and rates of decline and their determinants. It also identifies the main regional and socioeconomic inequalities associated with reproductive behaviour, as well as the factors underlying the changes observed. The document also addresses the challenges posed by this new scenario from a public policy perspective, examining family programmes and policies implemented in low fertility contexts and the main international and regional regulatory frameworks that support them.

The Demographic Observatory 2015 contains selected indicators from the 2015 revision of estimates and projections for the populations analysed. The figures contained in this publication are a revision of those presented in the Observatory 2014 and include updates of the estimations and projections of national populations from 1950 to 2100, taking into account new information sources available for Chile and Guatemala. Future issues will incorporate new estimates and projections, also prepared using the component method, but by simple ages and calendar years.

In this issue, Demographic Observatory presents estimates and projections of the population of the 20 countries of Latin America, for the period 1950-2100. The figures contained in this publication are a revision of those presented in the Demographic Observatory No. 12. From this edition, Demographic Observatory will follow a standard format containing information that will be updated annually and were prepared by CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC.

The Demographic Observatory 2016 contains selected indicators from the 2016 revision of estimates and projections of the national, urban, rural and economically active population. The figures contained in this publication are a revision of those presented in the Observatory 2015 and include updates of the estimations and projections of national populations from 1980 to 2050.

The Demographic Observatory 2017, devoted to the topic of mortality, supports analysis of mortality differentials by sex and age in the Latin American countries between 1950 and 2020. The tables presented in this edition were obtained by interpolation of the life tables implicit in 2017 revision of the population estimates and projections prepared by CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC, jointly or in consultation with the countries’ national statistical offices. As usual, an analytical chapter is included, on this occasion presenting mortality differentials by age and sex in selected countries, thereby providing an overview of mortality and some of its particular features in the region in this period. The estimates and projections for the national, urban, rural and economically active populations are available in spreadsheet format on the website of CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC (http://www.eclac.org/celade/).

This Demographic Observatory 2018 provides immigration tables for 19 Latin American countries for which data were available on the population censuses of the 2000 and 2010 decades. The data included are from the programme Research on International Migration in Latin America (IMILA). Information is compiled on the structure of the immigrant population by sex, age, years of schooling and participation in economic activity, according to census data. Also included are lifetime and recent international immigration, i.e. immigrants in Latin American countries who were born in different countries and those who resided in a different country five years prior to the census. The information is presented for total immigrants and for those from bordering countries, other Latin American countries, North America, Europe and the rest of the world. The analytical chapter in this edition addresses the theme of intrarregional and cross-border migration in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 2000 and 2010 decades.