Probability Theory and Stochastic Modelling - Böcker

It shows the various interdisciplinary relationships of random set theory within other parts of mathematics, and at the same time fixes terminology and notation that often vary in the literature, establishing it as a natural part of modern probability theory and providing a platform for future development.

It shows the various interdisciplinary relationships of random set theory within other parts of mathematics, and at the same time fixes terminology and notation that often vary in the literature, establishing it as a natural part of modern probability theory and providing a platform for future development.

This monograph is a sequel to Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus by the same authors. Within the context of Brownian-motion-driven asset prices, it develops contingent claim pricing and optimal consumption/investment in both complete and incomplete markets.  The latter topic is extended to the study of complete market equilibrium, providing conditions for the existence and uniqueness of market prices which support trading by several heterogeneous agents. Although much of the incomplete-market material is available in research papers, these topics are treated for the first time in a unified manner. The book contains an extensive set of references and notes describing the field, including topics not treated in the text. This monograph should be of interest to researchers wishing to see advanced mathematics applied to finance. The material on optimal consumption and investment, leading to equilibrium, is addressed to the theoretical finance community. Thechapters on contingent claim valuation present techniques of practical importance, especially for pricing exotic options.The present corrected printing includes, besides other minor corrections, an important correction of Theorem 6.4 and a simplification of the proof of Lemma 6.5. Also available by Ioannis Karatzas and Steven E. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, Second Edition, Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 1991, 470 pp., ISBN 0-387- 97655-8.

This book contains an in-depth treatment of matrix-exponential (ME) distributions and their sub-class of phase-type (PH) distributions. Loosely speaking, an ME distribution  is obtained through replacing the intensity parameter in an exponential distribution by a matrix. The ME distributions can also be identified as the class of non-negative distributions with rational Laplace transforms. If the matrix has the structure of a sub-intensity matrix for a Markov jump process we obtain a PH distribution which allows for nice probabilistic interpretations facilitating the derivation of exact solutions and closed form formulas.The full potential of ME and PH unfolds in their use in stochastic modelling. Several chapters on generic applications, like renewal theory, random walks and regenerative processes, are included together with some specific examples from queueing theory and insurance risk. We emphasize our intention towards applications by including an extensive treatmenton statistical methods for PH distributions and related processes that will allow practitioners to calibrate models to real data.Aimed as a textbook for graduate students in applied probability and statistics, the book provides all the necessary background on Poisson processes, Markov chains, jump processes, martingales and re-generative methods. It is our hope that the provided background may encourage researchers and practitioners from other fields, like biology, genetics and medicine, who wish to become acquainted with the matrix-exponential method and its applications.

This book provides a systematic and accessible approach to stochastic differential equations, backward stochastic differential equations, and their connection with partial differential equations, as well as the recent development of the fully nonlinear theory, including nonlinear expectation, second order backward stochastic differential equations, and path dependent partial differential equations. Their main applications and numerical algorithms, as well as many exercises, are included.The book focuses on ideas and clarity, with most results having been solved from scratch and most theories being motivated from applications. It can be considered a starting point for junior researchers in the field, and can serve as a textbook for a two-semester graduate course in probability theory and stochastic analysis. It is also accessible for graduate students majoring in financial engineering.

This book contains an in-depth treatment of matrix-exponential (ME) distributions and their sub-class of phase-type (PH) distributions. Loosely speaking, an ME distribution  is obtained through replacing the intensity parameter in an exponential distribution by a matrix. The ME distributions can also be identified as the class of non-negative distributions with rational Laplace transforms. If the matrix has the structure of a sub-intensity matrix for a Markov jump process we obtain a PH distribution which allows for nice probabilistic interpretations facilitating the derivation of exact solutions and closed form formulas.The full potential of ME and PH unfolds in their use in stochastic modelling. Several chapters on generic applications, like renewal theory, random walks and regenerative processes, are included together with some specific examples from queueing theory and insurance risk. We emphasize our intention towards applications by including an extensive treatmenton statistical methods for PH distributions and related processes that will allow practitioners to calibrate models to real data.Aimed as a textbook for graduate students in applied probability and statistics, the book provides all the necessary background on Poisson processes, Markov chains, jump processes, martingales and re-generative methods. It is our hope that the provided background may encourage researchers and practitioners from other fields, like biology, genetics and medicine, who wish to become acquainted with the matrix-exponential method and its applications.

This book provides a systematic and accessible approach to stochastic differential equations, backward stochastic differential equations, and their connection with partial differential equations, as well as the recent development of the fully nonlinear theory, including nonlinear expectation, second order backward stochastic differential equations, and path dependent partial differential equations. Their main applications and numerical algorithms, as well as many exercises, are included.The book focuses on ideas and clarity, with most results having been solved from scratch and most theories being motivated from applications. It can be considered a starting point for junior researchers in the field, and can serve as a textbook for a two-semester graduate course in probability theory and stochastic analysis. It is also accessible for graduate students majoring in financial engineering.

The construction of a Dynamic Markov Bridge, a useful extension of Markov bridge theory, addresses several important questions concerning how financial markets function, among them: how the presence of an insider trader impacts market efficiency;

The construction of a Dynamic Markov Bridge, a useful extension of Markov bridge theory, addresses several important questions concerning how financial markets function, among them: how the presence of an insider trader impacts market efficiency;

This book presents broadly applicable methods for the large deviation and moderate deviation analysis of discrete and continuous time stochastic systems. By characterizing a large deviation principle in terms of Laplace asymptotics, one converts the proof of large deviation limits into the convergence of variational representations.

This monograph focuses on those stochastic quickest detection tasks in disorder problems that arise in the dynamical analysis of statistical data.

Drawing on advanced probability theory, Ambit Stochastics is used to model stochastic processes which depend on both time and space. This monograph, the first on the subject, provides a reference for this burgeoning field, complete with the applications that have driven its development.Unique to Ambit Stochastics are ambit sets, which allow the delimitation of space-time to a zone of interest, and ambit fields, which are particularly well-adapted to modelling stochastic volatility or intermittency. These attributes lend themselves notably to applications in the statistical theory of turbulence and financial econometrics. In addition to the theory and applications of Ambit Stochastics, the book also contains new theory on the simulation of ambit fields and a comprehensive stochastic integration theory for Volterra processes in a non-semimartingale context.Written by pioneers in the subject, this book will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in empirical stochastic modelling.

This monograph, now in a thoroughly revised second edition, develops the theory of stochastic calculus in Hilbert spaces and applies the results to the study of generalized solutions of stochastic parabolic equations. The emphasis lies on second-order stochastic parabolic equations and their connection to random dynamical systems.

One of the main aims of this book is to exhibit some fruitful links between renewal theory and regular variation of functions. Applications of renewal processes play a key role in actuarial and financial mathematics as well as in engineering, operations research and other fields of applied mathematics. On the other hand, regular variation of functions is a property that features prominently in many fields of mathematics.The structure of the book reflects the historical development of the authors’ research work and approach – first some applications are discussed, after which a basic theory is created, and finally further applications are provided. The authors present a generalized and unified approach to the asymptotic behavior of renewal processes, involving cases of dependent inter-arrival times. This method works for other important functionals as well, such as first and last exit times or sojourn times (also under dependencies), and it can be used to solve several other problems. For example, various applications in function analysis concerning Abelian and Tauberian theorems can be studied as well as those in studies of the asymptotic behavior of solutions of stochastic differential equations. The classes of functions that are investigated and used in a probabilistic context extend the well-known Karamata theory of regularly varying functions and thus are also of interest in the theory of functions. The book provides a rigorous treatment of the subject and may serve as an introduction to the field. It is aimed at researchers and students working in probability, the theory of stochastic processes, operations research, mathematical statistics, the theory of functions, analytic number theory and complex analysis, as well as economists with a mathematical background. Readers should have completed introductory courses in analysis and probability theory.

This two-volume book offers a comprehensive treatment of the probabilistic approach to mean field game models and their applications.

This two-volume book offers a comprehensive treatment of the probabilistic approach to mean field game models and their applications.

This textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability.

This textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability.

This book offers a systematic and rigorous treatment of continuous-time Markov decision processes, covering both theory and possible applications to queueing systems, epidemiology, finance, and other fields.

This book offers a systematic and rigorous treatment of continuous-time Markov decision processes, covering both theory and possible applications to queueing systems, epidemiology, finance, and other fields.

Getoor, MetrikaFrom the reviews of the second edition: “This … edition presents … more material in the concise and elegant style of the former edition which by now has become a highly praised standard reference book for many areas of probability theory.” M.

Getoor, MetrikaFrom the reviews of the second edition: “This … edition presents … more material in the concise and elegant style of the former edition which by now has become a highly praised standard reference book for many areas of probability theory.” M.

Presenting the two components of point process calculus, the martingale calculus and the Palm calculus, it aims to develop the computational skills needed for the study of stochastic models involving point processes, providing enough of the general theory for the reader to reach a technical level sufficient for most applications.

Presenting the two components of point process calculus, the martingale calculus and the Palm calculus, it aims to develop the computational skills needed for the study of stochastic models involving point processes, providing enough of the general theory for the reader to reach a technical level sufficient for most applications.

This book is aimed at researchers, graduate students and engineers who would like to be initiated to Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). semi-Markov processes completed to become Markov processes. The last chapter is an opening on processes for which the deterministic flow of the PDMP is replaced with a Markov process.

This book is aimed at researchers, graduate students and engineers who would like to be initiated to Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). semi-Markov processes completed to become Markov processes. The last chapter is an opening on processes for which the deterministic flow of the PDMP is replaced with a Markov process.

This is the first book to systematically present control theory for stochastic distributed parameter systems, a comparatively new branch of mathematical control theory.

This is the first book to systematically present control theory for stochastic distributed parameter systems, a comparatively new branch of mathematical control theory.

Along the way, exact formulas are obtained for the quasispecies distribution in the long chain regime, on the sharp peak landscape and on class-dependent fitness landscapes.Finally, several other classical population models are analyzed, with a focus on their dynamical behavior and their links to the quasispecies equation.