Risk, Systems and Decisions - Böcker

This book provides an easy-to-read, user-oriented introduction to mental models research and Mental Modeling TechnologyTM.  Mental models are powerful influences human behavior. The book offers insight from the developers and most experienced application professionals of a widely proven methodology for understanding and influencing human judgment, decision making and behavior. The case studies show examples of the methodological concepts in their application context. It is one of the most comprehensive collections of cases focused on government needs of any similar qualitative analysis approach. Finally, it presents an introduction to software tools and tutorials that enable readers to use the approach for their own research needs.

This book provides an easy-to-read, user-oriented introduction to mental models research and Mental Modeling TechnologyTM. Mental models are powerful influences human behavior.

This book offers a comprehensive view on resilience based upon state-of-the-science theories and methodological applications that resilience may fill. Specifically, this text provides a compendium of knowledge on the theory, methods, and practice of resilience across a variety of country and case contexts, and demonstrates how a resilience-based approach can help further improved infrastructure, vibrant societies, and sustainable environments and ecologies, among many others.Resilience is a term with thousands of years of history. Only recently has resilience been applied to the management of complex interconnected systems, yet its impact as a governing philosophy and an engineering practice has been pronounced. Colloquially, resilience has been used as a synonym for ‘bouncing back’. Philosophically and methodologically, however, it is much more. In a world defined by interconnected and interdependent systems such as water, food, energy, transportation, and the internet, asudden and unexpected disruption to one critical system can lead to significant challenges for many others. The Science and Practice of Resilience is beneficial for those seeking to gain a rich knowledge of the resilience world, as well as for practitioners looking for methods and tools by which resilience may be applied in real-world contexts.

This book introduces fundamental concepts of cyber resilience, drawing expertise from academia, industry, and government.

This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes.The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments.  While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory.The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters.  In Part I theauthors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.

This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes.The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments.  While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory.The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters.  In Part I theauthors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.

This book explores the challenges that confront leaders in government and industry when making decisions in the areas of environmental health and safety. Today, decision making demands transparency, robustness, and resiliency. However thoughtfully they are devised, decisions made by governments and enterprises can often trigger immediate, passionate public response.Expertise Under Scrutiny shows how leaders can establish organizational decision making processes that yield valid, workable choices even in fast-changing and uncertain conditions.The first part of the book examines the organizational decision making process, describing the often-contentious environment in which important environmental health and safety decisions are made, and received. The authors review the roles of actors and experts in the decision making process. The book goes on to address such topics as:·       The roles of actors and experts in the decision making process·       Ethics and analytics as drivers of good decisions·       Why managing problems in safety, security, environment, and health Part II offers an outline for adopting a formal decision support structure, including the use of decision support tools. It includes a chapter devoted to ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing Reality), a multi-criteria decision analysis system.The book concludes with an insightful appraisal and analysis of the expertise, structure and resources needed for navigating well-supported, risk-informed decisions in our 21st Century world.Expertise Under Scrutiny benefits a broad audience of students, academics, researchers, and working professionals in management and related disciplines, especially in the field of environmental health and safety.

Synthetic biology offers powerful remedies for some of the world’s most intractable problems, but these solutions are clouded by uncertainty and risk that few strategies are available to address. The incentives for continued development of this emerging technology are prodigious and obvious, and the public deserves assurances that all potential downsides are duly considered and minimized accordingly. Incorporating social science analysis within the innovation process may impose constraints, but its simultaneous support in making the end products more acceptable to society at large should be considered a worthy trade-off.Contributing authors in this volume represent diverse perspectives related to synthetic biology’s social sciences, and reflect on different areas of risk analysis and governance that have developed for the field.  Such perspectives include leading scholarly discussion pertaining to risk assessment, governance, ethics, and communication. The chapters of thisvolume note that while the first twenty years of synthetic biology development have focused strongly on technological innovation and product development, the next twenty should emphasize the synergy between developers, policymakers, and publics to generate the most beneficial, well governed, and transparent technologies and products possible. Many chapters in this volume provide new data and approaches that demonstrate the feasibility for multi-stakeholder efforts involving policymakers, regulators, industrial developers, workers, experts, and societal representatives to share responsibilities in the production of effective and acceptable governance in the face of uncertain risk probabilities. A full consideration of such perspectives may prevent a world of draconian regulations based on an insufficient or incomplete understanding of the science that underpins synthetic biology, as well as any hesitancy or fear by the public to adopt its eventual products.

Synthetic biology offers powerful remedies for some of the world’s most intractable problems, but these solutions are clouded by uncertainty and risk that few strategies are available to address. The incentives for continued development of this emerging technology are prodigious and obvious, and the public deserves assurances that all potential downsides are duly considered and minimized accordingly. Incorporating social science analysis within the innovation process may impose constraints, but its simultaneous support in making the end products more acceptable to society at large should be considered a worthy trade-off.Contributing authors in this volume represent diverse perspectives related to synthetic biology’s social sciences, and reflect on different areas of risk analysis and governance that have developed for the field.  Such perspectives include leading scholarly discussion pertaining to risk assessment, governance, ethics, and communication. The chapters of thisvolume note that while the first twenty years of synthetic biology development have focused strongly on technological innovation and product development, the next twenty should emphasize the synergy between developers, policymakers, and publics to generate the most beneficial, well governed, and transparent technologies and products possible. Many chapters in this volume provide new data and approaches that demonstrate the feasibility for multi-stakeholder efforts involving policymakers, regulators, industrial developers, workers, experts, and societal representatives to share responsibilities in the production of effective and acceptable governance in the face of uncertain risk probabilities. A full consideration of such perspectives may prevent a world of draconian regulations based on an insufficient or incomplete understanding of the science that underpins synthetic biology, as well as any hesitancy or fear by the public to adopt its eventual products.

This book exposes the barriers to inclusive and effective public policy making, which are the current decision making paradigm and commonly held ideas that reduce public policy problems to scientific and technical ones.

This book exposes the barriers to inclusive and effective public policy making, which are the current decision making paradigm and commonly held ideas that reduce public policy problems to scientific and technical ones.

Older aged adults face many adversities over the later life course. This edited volume will address the ways in which seniors bounce back from different types and combinations of adversity – termed “resilience”. While research has been accumulating that identifies inherent abilities and external resources needed to adapt and navigate stress-inducing experiences among aging and older adults, gaps remain in understanding the unique elements and processes of resilience. A series of chapters included in this book will address several overarching questions: why do some older individuals/families/communities adapt to adversity better than others; what are modifiable behavioral protective/risk factors related to resilience; and how can we foster resilience at the individual/community level and which approaches show the most promise?The spectrum of aging-related challenges and responses addressed in this book include: mental health; physical/functional healthproblems; multimorbidity; socio-economic deprivation; social isolation and loneliness; cultural dimensions of loneliness; housing/homelessness problems; and environmental disasters. This book presents cutting-edge science at the conceptual, methodological, empirical and practice levels applied to emerging resilience sub-fields in gerontology. It will also present potential areas of future research, policy and practice linked to these areas.During a period of the most rapid population aging in the US, Canada and many other nations, coupled with heightened global socio-political change, extending our knowledge of resilience will help society to make important adjustments to maximize health and wellness of older individuals. Supporting and enhancing resilience through technological, social and/or community-level advances in geroscience will help those facing adversity to thrive by harnessing, stretching, and leveraging a wide array of potential resources. The promotion of healthier older populations has far-reaching consequences for health care and social/community support systems, both in terms of public health including pandemic response, and the development and implementation of innovations in treatment and practice guidelines.

Older aged adults face many adversities over the later life course. This edited volume will address the ways in which seniors bounce back from different types and combinations of adversity – termed “resilience”. While research has been accumulating that identifies inherent abilities and external resources needed to adapt and navigate stress-inducing experiences among aging and older adults, gaps remain in understanding the unique elements and processes of resilience. A series of chapters included in this book will address several overarching questions: why do some older individuals/families/communities adapt to adversity better than others; what are modifiable behavioral protective/risk factors related to resilience; and how can we foster resilience at the individual/community level and which approaches show the most promise?The spectrum of aging-related challenges and responses addressed in this book include: mental health; physical/functional healthproblems; multimorbidity; socio-economic deprivation; social isolation and loneliness; cultural dimensions of loneliness; housing/homelessness problems; and environmental disasters. This book presents cutting-edge science at the conceptual, methodological, empirical and practice levels applied to emerging resilience sub-fields in gerontology. It will also present potential areas of future research, policy and practice linked to these areas.During a period of the most rapid population aging in the US, Canada and many other nations, coupled with heightened global socio-political change, extending our knowledge of resilience will help society to make important adjustments to maximize health and wellness of older individuals. Supporting and enhancing resilience through technological, social and/or community-level advances in geroscience will help those facing adversity to thrive by harnessing, stretching, and leveraging a wide array of potential resources. The promotion of healthier older populations has far-reaching consequences for health care and social/community support systems, both in terms of public health including pandemic response, and the development and implementation of innovations in treatment and practice guidelines.

Accordingly, the main objective of this book is to promote scientific research in the different areas of risk management, aiming at being transversal and dealing with different aspects of risk management related to corporate finance as well as market finance.

Accordingly, the main objective of this book is to promote scientific research in the different areas of risk management, aiming at being transversal and dealing with different aspects of risk management related to corporate finance as well as market finance.

This book aims to provide a collection of early ideas regarding the results of applying risk and resilience tools and strategies to COVID-19.

This book examines how we design and deliver health communication messages relating to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. The book has been designed to support health communicators and public health management professionals, students, and interested stakeholders and university libraries.

This book examines how we design and deliver health communication messages relating to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. The book has been designed to support health communicators and public health management professionals, students, and interested stakeholders and university libraries.

By analyzing historical societies as complex adaptive systems, we contribute to contemporary thinking about societal-environmental interactions in policy and planning and consider how environmental and climatic changes, whether sudden high impact events or more subtle gradual changes, impacted human responses in the past.

By analyzing historical societies as complex adaptive systems, we contribute to contemporary thinking about societal-environmental interactions in policy and planning and consider how environmental and climatic changes, whether sudden high impact events or more subtle gradual changes, impacted human responses in the past.

The work should function as the primary source for students, researchers, and scholars who need information about the Zika pandemic.This book examines the technical literature, digital and popular literature, and online materials to fully contextualize this event and provide a bona fide record of this event and its implications for the future.

The work should function as the primary source for students, researchers, and scholars who need information about the Zika pandemic.This book examines the technical literature, digital and popular literature, and online materials to fully contextualize this event and provide a bona fide record of this event and its implications for the future.

This edited volume draws from health communication scholars and offers a depthful examination of the roles vaccination have played and continue to play in contributing to human, community, and transnational protection against infectious diseases.

Resilience, unlike the concept of security (which is often and incorrectly conflated with resilience) refers to the system's ability to recover or regenerate its performance after an unexpected impact produces a degradation in its performance.

This book describes opportunities in mission dependency network analysis made possible by advances in optimization methods.Mission dependency networks are increasingly complex, interconnected, and critically important. They may be as physically large as an international logistics system or as small as an embedded network within a car. They may be primarily physical as is a national transportation system or primarily functional as is a complex series of tasks required to achieve a military objective. Many are vulnerable to impairment due to malicious or accidental intent, natural disaster, or the natural failure of their components. Optimizing such systems is difficult.Advances in optimization methods are a great intellectual treasure which has strikingly less public visibility compared to its pervasive impact on people's lives. It has had a long history of improving the design, performance, and effectiveness of operational tasks.  Modern algorithms and computers can solve optimization problems over ten orders of magnitude faster than 25 years ago.  This opens the door to new analyses which previously could not be imaginable.This book frames important mission dependency analysis questions and develops a vocabulary and language to start addressing these issues by presenting a body of optimization analysis developed internally at The MITRE Corporation. While it is solution oriented it seeks to push the state-of-the-art techniques to overcome hurdles which the current academic literature cannot directly address. Parts of this book are highly technical and might be understood only by a reader versed in Operations Research. However, this book also seeks to appeal to three different sets of readers:-        a high-level decision maker interested in learning the big picture;-        an applied researcher seeking to refine, extend, or adapt this work to systems of interest to them;-        an operational practitioner interested in applying some of the algorithms or problem formulations while trusting their rigor.

This book is an overview of the hazards of firefighting, the health risks of exposure to combustion products that characterize firefighting, the science behind interpreting these risks for purposes of identifying diseases as work-related, and the legal and policy implications of adopting legislated “presumption” for purposes of compensation.