Risk, Systems and Decisions – serie

This book provides an easy-to-read, user-oriented introduction to mental models research and Mental Modeling TechnologyTM.  Mental models are powerful influences human behavior. The book offers insight from the developers and most experienced application professionals of a widely proven methodology for understanding and influencing human judgment, decision making and behavior. The case studies show examples of the methodological concepts in their application context. It is one of the most comprehensive collections of cases focused on government needs of any similar qualitative analysis approach. Finally, it presents an introduction to software tools and tutorials that enable readers to use the approach for their own research needs.

This book provides an easy-to-read, user-oriented introduction to mental models research and Mental Modeling TechnologyTM.  Mental models are powerful influences human behavior. The book offers insight from the developers and most experienced application professionals of a widely proven methodology for understanding and influencing human judgment, decision making and behavior. The case studies show examples of the methodological concepts in their application context. It is one of the most comprehensive collections of cases focused on government needs of any similar qualitative analysis approach. Finally, it presents an introduction to software tools and tutorials that enable readers to use the approach for their own research needs.

This book offers a comprehensive view on resilience based upon state-of-the-science theories and methodological applications that resilience may fill. Specifically, this text provides a compendium of knowledge on the theory, methods, and practice of resilience across a variety of country and case contexts, and demonstrates how a resilience-based approach can help further improved infrastructure, vibrant societies, and sustainable environments and ecologies, among many others.Resilience is a term with thousands of years of history. Only recently has resilience been applied to the management of complex interconnected systems, yet its impact as a governing philosophy and an engineering practice has been pronounced. Colloquially, resilience has been used as a synonym for ‘bouncing back’. Philosophically and methodologically, however, it is much more. In a world defined by interconnected and interdependent systems such as water, food, energy, transportation, and the internet, asudden and unexpected disruption to one critical system can lead to significant challenges for many others. The Science and Practice of Resilience is beneficial for those seeking to gain a rich knowledge of the resilience world, as well as for practitioners looking for methods and tools by which resilience may be applied in real-world contexts.

This book introduces fundamental concepts of cyber resilience, drawing expertise from academia, industry, and government.  Resilience is defined as the ability to recover from or easily adjust to shocks and stresses. Unlike the concept of security  - which is often and incorrectly conflated with resilience -- resilience refers to the system's ability to recover or regenerate its performance after an unexpected impact produces a degradation in its performance. A clear understanding of distinction between security, risk and resilience is important for developing appropriate management of cyber threats. The book presents insightful discussion of the most current technical issues in cyber resilience, along with relevant methods and procedures.  Practical aspects of current cyber resilience practices and techniques are described as they are now, and as they are likely to remain in the near term.The bulk of the material is presented in the book in a way that is easily accessible to non-specialists.  Logical, consistent, and continuous discourse covering all key topics relevant to the field will be of use as teaching material as well as source of emerging scholarship in the field.  A typical chapter provides introductory, tutorial-like material, detailed examples, in-depth elaboration of a selected technical approach, and a concise summary of key ideas.

This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes.The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments.  While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory.The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters.  In Part I theauthors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.

This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes.The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments.  While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory.The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters.  In Part I theauthors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.

This book explores the challenges that confront leaders in government and industry when making decisions in the areas of environmental health and safety. Today, decision making demands transparency, robustness, and resiliency. However thoughtfully they are devised, decisions made by governments and enterprises can often trigger immediate, passionate public response.Expertise Under Scrutiny shows how leaders can establish organizational decision making processes that yield valid, workable choices even in fast-changing and uncertain conditions.The first part of the book examines the organizational decision making process, describing the often-contentious environment in which important environmental health and safety decisions are made, and received. The authors review the roles of actors and experts in the decision making process. The book goes on to address such topics as:·       The roles of actors and experts in the decision making process·       Ethics and analytics as drivers of good decisions·       Why managing problems in safety, security, environment, and health Part II offers an outline for adopting a formal decision support structure, including the use of decision support tools. It includes a chapter devoted to ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing Reality), a multi-criteria decision analysis system.The book concludes with an insightful appraisal and analysis of the expertise, structure and resources needed for navigating well-supported, risk-informed decisions in our 21st Century world.Expertise Under Scrutiny benefits a broad audience of students, academics, researchers, and working professionals in management and related disciplines, especially in the field of environmental health and safety.

Synthetic biology offers powerful remedies for some of the world’s most intractable problems, but these solutions are clouded by uncertainty and risk that few strategies are available to address. The incentives for continued development of this emerging technology are prodigious and obvious, and the public deserves assurances that all potential downsides are duly considered and minimized accordingly. Incorporating social science analysis within the innovation process may impose constraints, but its simultaneous support in making the end products more acceptable to society at large should be considered a worthy trade-off.Contributing authors in this volume represent diverse perspectives related to synthetic biology’s social sciences, and reflect on different areas of risk analysis and governance that have developed for the field.  Such perspectives include leading scholarly discussion pertaining to risk assessment, governance, ethics, and communication. The chapters of thisvolume note that while the first twenty years of synthetic biology development have focused strongly on technological innovation and product development, the next twenty should emphasize the synergy between developers, policymakers, and publics to generate the most beneficial, well governed, and transparent technologies and products possible. Many chapters in this volume provide new data and approaches that demonstrate the feasibility for multi-stakeholder efforts involving policymakers, regulators, industrial developers, workers, experts, and societal representatives to share responsibilities in the production of effective and acceptable governance in the face of uncertain risk probabilities. A full consideration of such perspectives may prevent a world of draconian regulations based on an insufficient or incomplete understanding of the science that underpins synthetic biology, as well as any hesitancy or fear by the public to adopt its eventual products.

Synthetic biology offers powerful remedies for some of the world’s most intractable problems, but these solutions are clouded by uncertainty and risk that few strategies are available to address. The incentives for continued development of this emerging technology are prodigious and obvious, and the public deserves assurances that all potential downsides are duly considered and minimized accordingly. Incorporating social science analysis within the innovation process may impose constraints, but its simultaneous support in making the end products more acceptable to society at large should be considered a worthy trade-off.Contributing authors in this volume represent diverse perspectives related to synthetic biology’s social sciences, and reflect on different areas of risk analysis and governance that have developed for the field.  Such perspectives include leading scholarly discussion pertaining to risk assessment, governance, ethics, and communication. The chapters of thisvolume note that while the first twenty years of synthetic biology development have focused strongly on technological innovation and product development, the next twenty should emphasize the synergy between developers, policymakers, and publics to generate the most beneficial, well governed, and transparent technologies and products possible. Many chapters in this volume provide new data and approaches that demonstrate the feasibility for multi-stakeholder efforts involving policymakers, regulators, industrial developers, workers, experts, and societal representatives to share responsibilities in the production of effective and acceptable governance in the face of uncertain risk probabilities. A full consideration of such perspectives may prevent a world of draconian regulations based on an insufficient or incomplete understanding of the science that underpins synthetic biology, as well as any hesitancy or fear by the public to adopt its eventual products.

This book exposes the barriers to inclusive and effective public policy making, which are the current decision making paradigm and commonly held ideas that reduce public policy problems to scientific and technical ones. Through both environmental policy and other decision making examples, readers are shown the commonalities of all decision making. Solution-oriented practitioners and stakeholders will find this book filling a conceptual and methodological gap in existing policy literature and practice. The authors deftly guide readers from post-normal science, wicked problems, and uncertainty concepts to a conceptually-grounded, practical implementation of a new approach, the open solution approach. The Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA) is described as the first generation methodology that fulfills the expectations for the inclusive, transparent, and learning-based open solutions approach. MIRA is a holistic package of concepts, methods and analytical tools that is designed to assess Decision Uncertainty, the combined uncertainties that include data, problem formulation, expert judgments, and stakeholder opinions. Introduction of the Requisite Steps, the common steps found in all decision making, provides the yardstick for evaluating a variety of decision making processes, decision tools, and commonly found indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Newsweek Green Ranking of corporations. The use of anecdotes, policy stories, and case examples makes this a very readable and practical book for citizens and experts. With this book, readers are prepared to critically evaluate these common indices for their personal use as well as challenge policy processes as a stakeholder. For policy practitioners, this guidebook will become a rubric to ensure an effective public policy making process and to critically evaluate decision support tools.

This book exposes the barriers to inclusive and effective public policy making, which are the current decision making paradigm and commonly held ideas that reduce public policy problems to scientific and technical ones. Through both environmental policy and other decision making examples, readers are shown the commonalities of all decision making. Solution-oriented practitioners and stakeholders will find this book filling a conceptual and methodological gap in existing policy literature and practice. The authors deftly guide readers from post-normal science, wicked problems, and uncertainty concepts to a conceptually-grounded, practical implementation of a new approach, the open solution approach. The Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA) is described as the first generation methodology that fulfills the expectations for the inclusive, transparent, and learning-based open solutions approach. MIRA is a holistic package of concepts, methods and analytical tools that is designed to assess Decision Uncertainty, the combined uncertainties that include data, problem formulation, expert judgments, and stakeholder opinions. Introduction of the Requisite Steps, the common steps found in all decision making, provides the yardstick for evaluating a variety of decision making processes, decision tools, and commonly found indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Newsweek Green Ranking of corporations. The use of anecdotes, policy stories, and case examples makes this a very readable and practical book for citizens and experts. With this book, readers are prepared to critically evaluate these common indices for their personal use as well as challenge policy processes as a stakeholder. For policy practitioners, this guidebook will become a rubric to ensure an effective public policy making process and to critically evaluate decision support tools.

Older aged adults face many adversities over the later life course. This edited volume will address the ways in which seniors bounce back from different types and combinations of adversity – termed “resilience”. While research has been accumulating that identifies inherent abilities and external resources needed to adapt and navigate stress-inducing experiences among aging and older adults, gaps remain in understanding the unique elements and processes of resilience. A series of chapters included in this book will address several overarching questions: why do some older individuals/families/communities adapt to adversity better than others; what are modifiable behavioral protective/risk factors related to resilience; and how can we foster resilience at the individual/community level and which approaches show the most promise?The spectrum of aging-related challenges and responses addressed in this book include: mental health; physical/functional healthproblems; multimorbidity; socio-economic deprivation; social isolation and loneliness; cultural dimensions of loneliness; housing/homelessness problems; and environmental disasters. This book presents cutting-edge science at the conceptual, methodological, empirical and practice levels applied to emerging resilience sub-fields in gerontology. It will also present potential areas of future research, policy and practice linked to these areas.During a period of the most rapid population aging in the US, Canada and many other nations, coupled with heightened global socio-political change, extending our knowledge of resilience will help society to make important adjustments to maximize health and wellness of older individuals. Supporting and enhancing resilience through technological, social and/or community-level advances in geroscience will help those facing adversity to thrive by harnessing, stretching, and leveraging a wide array of potential resources. The promotion of healthier older populations has far-reaching consequences for health care and social/community support systems, both in terms of public health including pandemic response, and the development and implementation of innovations in treatment and practice guidelines.

Older aged adults face many adversities over the later life course. This edited volume will address the ways in which seniors bounce back from different types and combinations of adversity – termed “resilience”. While research has been accumulating that identifies inherent abilities and external resources needed to adapt and navigate stress-inducing experiences among aging and older adults, gaps remain in understanding the unique elements and processes of resilience. A series of chapters included in this book will address several overarching questions: why do some older individuals/families/communities adapt to adversity better than others; what are modifiable behavioral protective/risk factors related to resilience; and how can we foster resilience at the individual/community level and which approaches show the most promise?The spectrum of aging-related challenges and responses addressed in this book include: mental health; physical/functional healthproblems; multimorbidity; socio-economic deprivation; social isolation and loneliness; cultural dimensions of loneliness; housing/homelessness problems; and environmental disasters. This book presents cutting-edge science at the conceptual, methodological, empirical and practice levels applied to emerging resilience sub-fields in gerontology. It will also present potential areas of future research, policy and practice linked to these areas.During a period of the most rapid population aging in the US, Canada and many other nations, coupled with heightened global socio-political change, extending our knowledge of resilience will help society to make important adjustments to maximize health and wellness of older individuals. Supporting and enhancing resilience through technological, social and/or community-level advances in geroscience will help those facing adversity to thrive by harnessing, stretching, and leveraging a wide array of potential resources. The promotion of healthier older populations has far-reaching consequences for health care and social/community support systems, both in terms of public health including pandemic response, and the development and implementation of innovations in treatment and practice guidelines.

Risk is the main source of uncertainty for investors, debtholders, corporate managers and other stakeholders. For all these actors, it is vital to focus on identifying and managing risk before making decisions. The success of their businesses depends on the relevance of their decisions and consequently, on their ability to manage and deal with the different types of risk. Accordingly, the main objective of this book is to promote scientific research in the different areas of risk management, aiming at being transversal and dealing with different aspects of risk management related to corporate finance as well as market finance. Thus, this book should provide useful insights for academics as well as professionals to better understand and assess the different types of risk.

Risk is the main source of uncertainty for investors, debtholders, corporate managers and other stakeholders. For all these actors, it is vital to focus on identifying and managing risk before making decisions. The success of their businesses depends on the relevance of their decisions and consequently, on their ability to manage and deal with the different types of risk. Accordingly, the main objective of this book is to promote scientific research in the different areas of risk management, aiming at being transversal and dealing with different aspects of risk management related to corporate finance as well as market finance. Thus, this book should provide useful insights for academics as well as professionals to better understand and assess the different types of risk.

This book aims to provide a collection of early ideas regarding the results of applying risk and resilience tools and strategies to COVID-19. Each chapter provides a distinct contribution to the new and rapidly growing literature on the developing COVID-19 pandemic from the vantage points of fields ranging from civil and environmental engineering to public policy, from urban planning to economics, and from public health to systems theory. Contributing chapters to the book are both scholars and active practitioners, who are bridging their applied work with critical scholarly interpretation and reflection. The book's primary purpose is to empower stakeholders and decision-makers with the most recent research in order that they can better understand the systemic and sweeping nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as which strategies could be implemented to maximize socioeconomic and public health recovery and adaptation over the long-term.

This book examines how we design and deliver health communication messages relating to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. We have experienced major changes to how the public receives and searches for information about health crises over  the last twelve decades with the ongoing shift from text/broadcast-based to digital messaging and social media. Both health theories and practices are examined as it applies to testing, tracking, hoarding, therapeutics, and vaccines with case studies. Challenges to communicate about health to diverse audiences (including the science illiterate) and across (both Western and developing economies) have been complicated by politics, norms and mores, personal heuristics, and biases, such as mortality salience, news avoidance, and quarantine fatigue. Issues of economic development and land use, trade and transportation, and even climate change have increased the exposure of human populations to infectious diseases making risk and resilience more pressing. The book has been designed to support health communicators and public health management professionals, students, and interested stakeholders and university libraries.

This book examines how we design and deliver health communication messages relating to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. We have experienced major changes to how the public receives and searches for information about health crises over  the last twelve decades with the ongoing shift from text/broadcast-based to digital messaging and social media. Both health theories and practices are examined as it applies to testing, tracking, hoarding, therapeutics, and vaccines with case studies. Challenges to communicate about health to diverse audiences (including the science illiterate) and across (both Western and developing economies) have been complicated by politics, norms and mores, personal heuristics, and biases, such as mortality salience, news avoidance, and quarantine fatigue. Issues of economic development and land use, trade and transportation, and even climate change have increased the exposure of human populations to infectious diseases making risk and resilience more pressing. The book has been designed to support health communicators and public health management professionals, students, and interested stakeholders and university libraries.

This is an open access book. Histories we tell never emerge in a vacuum, and history as an academic discipline that studies the past is highly sensitive to the concerns of the present and the heated debates that can divide entire societies. But does the study of the past also have something to teach us about the future? Can history help us in coping with the planetary crisis we are now facing? By analyzing historical societies as complex adaptive systems, we contribute to contemporary thinking about societal-environmental interactions in policy and planning and consider how environmental and climatic changes, whether sudden high impact events or more subtle gradual changes, impacted human responses in the past. We ask how societal perceptions of such changes affect behavioral patterns and explanatory rationalities in premodernity, and whether a better historical understanding of these relationships can inform our response to contemporary problems of similar nature and magnitude, such as adapting to climate change.

This is an open access book. Histories we tell never emerge in a vacuum, and history as an academic discipline that studies the past is highly sensitive to the concerns of the present and the heated debates that can divide entire societies. But does the study of the past also have something to teach us about the future? Can history help us in coping with the planetary crisis we are now facing? By analyzing historical societies as complex adaptive systems, we contribute to contemporary thinking about societal-environmental interactions in policy and planning and consider how environmental and climatic changes, whether sudden high impact events or more subtle gradual changes, impacted human responses in the past. We ask how societal perceptions of such changes affect behavioral patterns and explanatory rationalities in premodernity, and whether a better historical understanding of these relationships can inform our response to contemporary problems of similar nature and magnitude, such as adapting to climate change.

The aim of the book was to produce the most comprehensive examination of a pandemic that has ever been attempted. By cataloging the full extent of the Zika pandemic, this book will be the most complete history and epistemic contextualization ever attempted to date. The work should function as the primary source for students, researchers, and scholars who need information about the Zika pandemic.This book examines the technical literature, digital and popular literature, and online materials to fully contextualize this event and provide a bona fide record of this event and its implications for the future. It is somewhat serendipitous that while this work was underway, we are going through another pandemic. One of the primary lessons we did not learn by Zika was pandemic events will return repeatedly, and we need to learn from each one of them to prepare the planet for the next one. Just because Zika seemed to have died out does not make it less important. We were lucky that thevirus evolved into what seemed to be a less virulent version of itself, and the vector mosquitoes were concentrated elsewhere. Finally, this book represents a tour de force in scholarship involving nearly 4,000 sources of information and does not shy from a detailed examination of the controversies, conspiracies, and long-term consequences when we avoid learning from outbreaks, such as Zika.

The aim of the book was to produce the most comprehensive examination of a pandemic that has ever been attempted. By cataloging the full extent of the Zika pandemic, this book will be the most complete history and epistemic contextualization ever attempted to date. The work should function as the primary source for students, researchers, and scholars who need information about the Zika pandemic.This book examines the technical literature, digital and popular literature, and online materials to fully contextualize this event and provide a bona fide record of this event and its implications for the future. It is somewhat serendipitous that while this work was underway, we are going through another pandemic. One of the primary lessons we did not learn by Zika was pandemic events will return repeatedly, and we need to learn from each one of them to prepare the planet for the next one. Just because Zika seemed to have died out does not make it less important. We were lucky that thevirus evolved into what seemed to be a less virulent version of itself, and the vector mosquitoes were concentrated elsewhere. Finally, this book represents a tour de force in scholarship involving nearly 4,000 sources of information and does not shy from a detailed examination of the controversies, conspiracies, and long-term consequences when we avoid learning from outbreaks, such as Zika.

This edited volume draws from health communication scholars and offers a depthful examination of the roles vaccination have played and continue to play in contributing to human, community, and transnational protection against infectious diseases. The problems associated with vaccination against infection diseases was made abundantly clear during the current pandemic of COVID-19. Vaccines were traced back to Dr. Edward Jenner in the 18th century as a tool to control smallpox in England. Today we have six different categories of vaccines (three seem most controversial today): inactivated, live-attenuated, and messenger RNA (mRNA). We examine the reasons for public reluctance and outright resistance to vaccines examining cognitive biases, communication campaign failures, politicization, misinformation, partisanship, and greed. The healthcare industry has not treated all infected people equally, especially the poor and people of color. This is true in the USA as well as abroad. In the future, we can expect more exotic infections to increase due to globalization, development, and transportation. As climate changes, humans will contact more species carrying many different bacteria and viruses. Advances in medical research have led to increases in the number of vaccinations available to control infection and outbreaks. However, the rates of vaccination have fluctuated over time. A vaccine that is not used is meaningless. To increase vaccination rates, we must learn why the public shies away from vaccinations and under what circumstances. This information will enable us to design more effective messaging and communication campaigns to maximize general resilience. An interactive partnership between providers of healthcare and their patients is a prerequisite to productive and effective vaccination campaigns

This edited volume draws from health communication scholars and offers a depthful examination of the roles vaccination have played and continue to play in contributing to human, community, and transnational protection against infectious diseases. The problems associated with vaccination against infection diseases was made abundantly clear during the current pandemic of COVID-19. Vaccines were traced back to Dr. Edward Jenner in the 18th century as a tool to control smallpox in England. Today we have six different categories of vaccines (three seem most controversial today): inactivated, live-attenuated, and messenger RNA (mRNA). We examine the reasons for public reluctance and outright resistance to vaccines examining cognitive biases, communication campaign failures, politicization, misinformation, partisanship, and greed. The healthcare industry has not treated all infected people equally, especially the poor and people of color. This is true in the USA as well as abroad. In the future, we can expect more exotic infections to increase due to globalization, development, and transportation. As climate changes, humans will contact more species carrying many different bacteria and viruses. Advances in medical research have led to increases in the number of vaccinations available to control infection and outbreaks. However, the rates of vaccination have fluctuated over time. A vaccine that is not used is meaningless. To increase vaccination rates, we must learn why the public shies away from vaccinations and under what circumstances. This information will enable us to design more effective messaging and communication campaigns to maximize general resilience. An interactive partnership between providers of healthcare and their patients is a prerequisite to productive and effective vaccination campaigns

Resilience is defined as the ability to recover from or easily adapt to shocks and stresses. Resilience, unlike the concept of security (which is often and incorrectly conflated with resilience) refers to the system's ability to recover or regenerate its performance after an unexpected impact produces a degradation in its performance. A clear understanding of distinction between security, risk and resilience is important for developing appropriate management of cyber threats. This books draws expertise from academia, industry, and government to present insightful discussion of the fundamental concepts of cyber resilience, including the most current technical issues, relevant methods and procedures, and recent developments of the field. This book offers greater emphasis on applying the concepts and methods of cyber resilience to practical problems as compared to our previous book. The bulk of the material is presented in a logical, consistent, and continuous way that is easily accessible to non-specialists and will be of use as teaching material as well as source of emerging scholarship in the field.

Resilience is defined as the ability to recover from or easily adapt to shocks and stresses. Resilience, unlike the concept of security (which is often and incorrectly conflated with resilience) refers to the system's ability to recover or regenerate its performance after an unexpected impact produces a degradation in its performance. A clear understanding of distinction between security, risk and resilience is important for developing appropriate management of cyber threats. This books draws expertise from academia, industry, and government to present insightful discussion of the fundamental concepts of cyber resilience, including the most current technical issues, relevant methods and procedures, and recent developments of the field. This book offers greater emphasis on applying the concepts and methods of cyber resilience to practical problems as compared to our previous book. The bulk of the material is presented in a logical, consistent, and continuous way that is easily accessible to non-specialists and will be of use as teaching material as well as source of emerging scholarship in the field.

This book describes opportunities in mission dependency network analysis made possible by advances in optimization methods.Mission dependency networks are increasingly complex, interconnected, and critically important. They may be as physically large as an international logistics system or as small as an embedded network within a car. They may be primarily physical as is a national transportation system or primarily functional as is a complex series of tasks required to achieve a military objective. Many are vulnerable to impairment due to malicious or accidental intent, natural disaster, or the natural failure of their components. Optimizing such systems is difficult.Advances in optimization methods are a great intellectual treasure which has strikingly less public visibility compared to its pervasive impact on people's lives. It has had a long history of improving the design, performance, and effectiveness of operational tasks.  Modern algorithms and computers can solve optimization problems over ten orders of magnitude faster than 25 years ago.  This opens the door to new analyses which previously could not be imaginable.This book frames important mission dependency analysis questions and develops a vocabulary and language to start addressing these issues by presenting a body of optimization analysis developed internally at The MITRE Corporation. While it is solution oriented it seeks to push the state-of-the-art techniques to overcome hurdles which the current academic literature cannot directly address. Parts of this book are highly technical and might be understood only by a reader versed in Operations Research. However, this book also seeks to appeal to three different sets of readers:-        a high-level decision maker interested in learning the big picture;-        an applied researcher seeking to refine, extend, or adapt this work to systems of interest to them;-        an operational practitioner interested in applying some of the algorithms or problem formulations while trusting their rigor.

This book is an overview of the hazards of firefighting, the health risks of exposure to combustion products that characterize firefighting, the science behind interpreting these risks for purposes of identifying diseases as work-related, and the legal and policy implications of adopting legislated “presumption” for purposes of compensation. The emphasis of the book will be on the risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, traumatic hazards, and disabling psychosocial adjustment following major incidents. Several new studies have appeared recently, including the largest study of firefighters ever done, by the National Institute of Occupational Health and Safety (NIOSH). They evidence supports the conclusion that firefighters face significant occupational health risks in addition to the obviously severe safety hazards.